ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[eastcoastFL]

Anyone have a shear map for the gulf?

[Ground_Zero_92]

I'm in South Miami Heights.... Torrential rain, lots of thunder and lightning, moderate winds... my guess is about 20 knots... seems like an moderate to severe afternoon thunderstorm down here.

[eastcoastFL]

Another pretty good rain squall coming through right now

Ya little heavy side ways rain but I guess that is all shes got.

[tolakram]

Visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=20

Well north of NHC track, almost north of the 'cone'.

[eastcoastFL]

What is that over the bahamas? Is that part of bonnie?

[umguy]

It's raining pretty good here in Ft Lauderdale.

[Category 5]

Radar

Landfall within the hour just north of Homestead it looks.

[Bocadude85]

wow strongest squall we have had... very heavy rain gusty winds and thunder and lightning

[eastcoastFL]

wow strongest squall we have had... very heavy rain gusty winds and thunder and lightning

Im on congress and yamato dont see anything like that. Where are you?

[Ground_Zero_92]

Radar

Landfall within the hour just north of Homestead it looks.

Tag I'm it here in South Miami Heights... oh yay!....

[Bocadude85]

wow strongest squall we have had... very heavy rain gusty winds and thunder and lightning

Im on congress and yamato dont see anything like that. Where are you?

I am at work in Deerfield Beach

[HURAKAN]

radar

[Category 5]

Center is literally JUST offshore, landfall within minutes.

[eastcoastFL]

Looking at that radar seems like the show is about over. Looks like most of those squall lines will move on shore and us here on the east coast are done

[poof121]

Area of deep convection is growing...

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-80&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1024&height=800&type=Animation&quality=90&numframes=20&palette=spect.pal

[Blown Away]

Glad Bonnie is wimpy, but that is a pretty big miss for the NHC. If that radar is correct Bonnie will landfall on the extreme N side of the error cone, maybe just N of the error cone. JB will surely toot his own horn calling for a northerly landfall.

[Canelaw99]

>>We keep these (ULL)around and 2010 may really turn out to be a bust quantity wise.

Actually these types of "concentric" upper level lows which migrate throughout the basin in the early part of the season are often signatures of both active and US-threat seasons. You most often see them in +/- El Neutral years whereas you often have persistent tutt lows in strong El Nino years and splitting troughs in strong La Nina years. While it seems they are inhibitors now, that's not going to be the case as the pattern evolves. Trust me on that.

It would be really nice if you were wrong on that I have a feeling you're correct, but I can hope LOL

[Category 5]

Glad Bonnie is wimpy, but that is a pretty big miss for the NHC. If that radar is correct Bonnie will landfall on the extreme N side of the error cone, maybe just N of the error cone. JB will surely toot his own horn calling for a northerly landfall.

Fortunately for a storm like this, such a miss isn't really a big deal.

[MGC]

NHC should be in the eye soon....MGC

[Canelaw99]

I'm in South Miami Heights.... Torrential rain, lots of thunder and lightning, moderate winds... my guess is about 20 knots... seems like an moderate to severe afternoon thunderstorm down here.

I'm in Homestead and have had a couple of heavy showers this morning. We're just now getting a pretty heavy storm with some thunder. I've definitely seen regular summer t-storms with more punch than what we've seen so far....