ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[Category 5]

Thought this was amusing, the sun is out in parts of the keys.

[Blown Away]

NHC should be in the eye soon....MGC

It's supposed to be over the Keys?

[Vortmax1]

11am:

...CENTER OF BONNIE OVER BISCAYNE BAY...MOST OF THE WEATHER ALREADY
INLAND...

[ObsessedMiami]

I am surprised by the lack of wind here in Kendall. we had more of a breeze last night.

[tolakram]

Radar. Please do not quote this image!

[crazycajuncane]

Glad Bonnie is wimpy, but that is a pretty big miss for the NHC. If that radar is correct Bonnie will landfall on the extreme N side of the error cone, maybe just N of the error cone. JB will surely toot his own horn calling for a northerly landfall.

Fortunately for a storm like this, such a miss isn't really a big deal.

This is true... the storm is barely tropical storm status and is not a tightly closed system... if this thing were better organized a day or so out I think the tracks would have been more defined.

We see worse weather out of low pressure systems dropping off the tail end of a cold front and those are hard to pinpoint where the weather will be 12 hours out!

[ObsessedMiami]

Looks like some storms are trying to pop out on the back side. Decent banding on the SE side is starting to fill in

[Canelaw99]

Looks like it's coming ashore right around Biscayne National Park here in Homestead. Guess that means what we have outside right now is about the worst we'll see. Was hoping for at least a good breeze from this today. Oh well. Glad it's minor and not a bad hurricane.

[CrazyC83]

The Fowey Rocks station reported based on the NHC a 41 kt wind, but not sure the elevation - Jim Cantore thinks it is 10m. (If that is the case, the intensity should be bumped to 40-45 kt)

[jhpigott]

Looks like we may finally get some rain here in the northern end of palm beach county.


Thanks Tolakram for updating the radar images.

[MGC]

Interesting feature in Bonnie's western eye wall. Almost looks like a new center is forming or perhaps a micro vortex or an edy......MGC

[drezee]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=FWYF1

40kt sustained 10 min wind with gust to 46kts

Anemometer height: 43.9 m above site elevation but the 10-minute wind basically cancels out the height difference...

So I would say it made landfall as a 40kt TS.

[SFLcane]

Thus far its been a non-event for dade county in all honesty. The highest gust i got here at the house with the anemometer was 34-35mph in a rainband the came through a while ago. Thankfully this thing is racing across florida so the precip totals wont be that bad. I did see a report though from the Fowey Rocks Light station was reporting 40-kt sustained winds at around 10 a.m.

Keys reporting sunshine

[Canelaw99]

The Fowey Rocks station reported based on the NHC a 41 kt wind, but not sure the elevation - Jim Cantore thinks it is 10m. (If that is the case, the intensity should be bumped to 40-45 kt)

Here's info about Fowey Rocks station: http://www.weatherforyou.com/wxinfo/hw3 ... onid=FWYF1

[poof121]

Two separate stations with 40 knot winds...

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=MFWYF1

http://www.wunderground.com/MAR/buoy/FWYF1.html

There are pretty close to each other, but two independent observations.

[RachelAnna]

What time do you think she will be completely over Gulf waters?

[Category 5]

LAND HOOOOOOOOOOO!

...CENTER OF BONNIE OVER BISCAYNE BAY...MOST OF THE WEATHER ALREADY INLAND.

[HurrMark]

I find it very hard to find (at least in the wall-to-wall media/internet era) another storm making landfall in Miami and progged to hit the New Orleans area that had as little attention paid to it as this one did...and that's a good thing.

[CrazyC83]

40 kt does seem reasonable, since 40 kt 10-min winds equates to about 47 kt 1-min, but the elevation cancels it out.

[CrazyC83]

I find it very hard to find another storm making landfall in Miami and progged to hit the New Orleans area that had as little attention as this one did...and that's a good thing.

Fortunately it is only 40 mph and not 140 mph.