ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[Texas Snowman]

I think it was Humberto. I remember it was kind of a non player then all of a sudden it exploded into a cane.
Thanks a bunch I knew someone would help me out.
Tim

Humberto didn't go to Cat 3 status though. 90 mph was top wind speed.

Now Hurricane Bret in 199 went from being classified as a Cat 1 to a 145 mph Cat 4 in something between 24 and 48 hours.

[Ptarmigan]

Does anyone remember the storm several years ago that went from a Tropical Storm to a Cat 3 Hurricane in like 24 hours or something like that. I remember the storm but can't remember the name. I think Alex may try his hand at some RI as it moves away from the Yucatan.
Thanks in advance,
Tim

Is it Humberto from 2007? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Humberto_(2007)

I follow the waves in the atlantic very closely and i remember that morening it literally popped up! I was like, "um wow, that could be a hurricane pretty quickly." At the time it was barely a depression, but i remember that storm had a nice circulation, great "balance" (the eye was in the middle of the circulation and not the NW side of the storm like many young TS's in the gulf. Sure enough, that night, it made it to 90 mph. We had a beach hous in Crystal beach so we became worried but, the storm surge was minimal. Had 75 mph winds and only lost some shingles. I'm going to look for some youtube vids of the storm coming ashore. Many thought the storm had wind gusts to 115 as it made landfall!

In regards to Alex, i dont expect the same thing to happen since Humberto was in Sept., but Alex has a broad circulation and the eye is in the middle of the Low, so it can strengthen quickly

(sorry for going slightly off topic)

Humberto was a Category 1 at landfall. Also, it was much smaller than Alex, with tropical storm force winds extending up to 60 miles. Also, Bret in 1999 intensified quickly and it too was a small hurricane.

[HURAKAN]

If TS winds are affecting the Yucatan peninsula, shouldn't this area be under a tropical storm warning?

[cycloneye]

HURAKAN,good catch,interesting.

[Texas Snowman]

Ok, I'm sure there is something I'm missing here. But from the looks of those t-storm cloud tops over Mexico shooting off to the NE, why wouldn't that also tend to pull Alex further to the north?

[ozonepete]

If TS winds are affecting the Yucatan peninsula, shouldn't this area be under a tropical storm warning?

Very good catch.

[Javlin]

Ok, I'm sure there is something I'm missing here. But from the looks of those t-storm cloud tops over Mexico shooting off to the NE, why wouldn't that also tend to pull Alex further to the north?

My contention earlier in another post but he does seem stationary for the last couple of hours??change in direction??

[Ikester]

Just so everybody understands, Miami has no control over watches and warnings on foreign coast lines...it's up to each individual government to do that.

[psyclone]

those windfield graphics always seem to be waaaay overcooked. according to that pic, a good chunk of land area is experiencing ts conditions. i bet ground truth is far different...obs from merida or progresso or campeche would be telling.

[brunota2003]

the winds...if they were in a marine environment...very well may be TS force.

[curtadams]

Convection is collapsing NW of the center in a way that makes me think "mid level dry air intrusion". That may be why the global keep Alex weak.

[hurricaneCW]

I don't see any dry air intrusion, the core is just building up, in fact there is some intense convective bursting occurring right around the center. Alex is still near land so some of the inflow is cut off but once it starts moving it should organize quite rapidly in a very favorable environment.

[ConvergenceZone]

Convection is collapsing NW of the center in a way that makes me think "mid level dry air intrusion". That may be why the global keep Alex weak.

Yea, you may be right. Perhaps the dynamic models will be right in keeping this a tropical storm. Only time will tell.

[jinftl]

Agree 100%...love the graphic, but never sure if it is meant to represent flight level winds or the windfield if there was no reduction due to land interaction, friction, etc.

Highest winds reported at Campeche airport today has been 30 mph, even though they are clearly in the ts wind swath in the NHC graphic posted.
http://www.wunderground.com/history/air ... atename=NA

those windfield graphics always seem to be waaaay overcooked. according to that pic, a good chunk of land area is experiencing ts conditions. i bet ground truth is far different...obs from merida or progresso or campeche would be telling.

[brunota2003]

Agree 100%...love the graphic, but never sure if it is meant to represent flight level winds or the windfield if there was no reduction due to land interaction, friction, etc.

Highest winds reported at Campeche airport today has been 30 mph, even though they are clearly in the ts wind swath in the NHC graphic posted.
http://www.wunderground.com/history/air ... atename=NA

those windfield graphics always seem to be waaaay overcooked. according to that pic, a good chunk of land area is experiencing ts conditions. i bet ground truth is far different...obs from merida or progresso or campeche would be telling.

Could just read the product description

About this product:

This graphic shows the areas potentially being affected by the sustained winds of tropical storm force (in orange) and hurricane force (in red). The display is based on the wind radii contained in the latest Forecast/Advisory (indicated at the top of the figure). Users are reminded that the Forecast/Advisory wind radii represent the maximum possible extent of a given wind speed within particular quadrants around the tropical cyclone. As a result, not all locations falling within the orange or red shaded areas will be experiencing sustained tropical storm or hurricane force winds, respectively.

In addition to the wind field, this graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The white dot indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone, and the dashed line shows the history of the center of the tropical cyclone.

[ROCK]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html

[jinftl]

Way to reasonable of a suggestion!!! lol...i plead guilty to not reading the product description. What's next...reminding folks not to focus on the exact track of an individual model run or not forgetting to factor in the standard margin of error that increases as we move out in time for a given forecast track!

Agree 100%...love the graphic, but never sure if it is meant to represent flight level winds or the windfield if there was no reduction due to land interaction, friction, etc.

Highest winds reported at Campeche airport today has been 30 mph, even though they are clearly in the ts wind swath in the NHC graphic posted.
http://www.wunderground.com/history/air ... atename=NA

those windfield graphics always seem to be waaaay overcooked. according to that pic, a good chunk of land area is experiencing ts conditions. i bet ground truth is far different...obs from merida or progresso or campeche would be telling.

Could just read the product description

About this product:

This graphic shows the areas potentially being affected by the sustained winds of tropical storm force (in orange) and hurricane force (in red). The display is based on the wind radii contained in the latest Forecast/Advisory (indicated at the top of the figure). Users are reminded that the Forecast/Advisory wind radii represent the maximum possible extent of a given wind speed within particular quadrants around the tropical cyclone. As a result, not all locations falling within the orange or red shaded areas will be experiencing sustained tropical storm or hurricane force winds, respectively.

In addition to the wind field, this graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The white dot indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone, and the dashed line shows the history of the center of the tropical cyclone.

[brunota2003]

Just because the model is pointed directly at your house does not mean it is 100% guaranteed to hit you!

[psyclone]

I've read the product description before and IMO they're overdone to the point of being useless but i admit this could be a defect on my part:)

[Sanibel]

The front isn't plunging as much as it looked earlier. You have to be careful calling for turns too early.