ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[WeatherGuesser]

NC Outerbankers need to be extremely vigilant for the next few days though.

[ColinDelia]

Aric was saying the motion is calculated over 6 hours wg

[DreamworksSKG]

Does anyone else feel uneasy about Earl continuing to go more west than north? in the early hours of Tuesday morning?

Also does anyone else notice a similar path to Floyd for Earl???

I'm thinking the models will continue to shift west and bring potential Hurricane force conditions to the outer banks of NC, and then it may ride up the east coast into SE Mass---or over Block Island and SE Mass/or Rhode Island, or perhaps right over Chatham , Cape Cod - we'll see.

I think it will be slightly east of Floyd's path but could come dangerously close to the outer banks or right on top of it, if it keeps moving west. (Maybe landfall right on Hatteras, or Duck Island).
or very close by

What is up with the HWRF, NOGAPS, AND GFDN bringing Earl close or over Cape Cod?

Thanks

I am north of Boston (Winchester, MA) Am wondering what effects I might see from Earl? Also how big will the surf get say Hampton Beach or Gloucester/Rockport coming up with Earl? would thursday or early Friday be a good surf viewing day?
Thanks

http://amdar.noaa.gov/docs/floyd/floyd-track.gif

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Does it have to be over a 3 hour period since they normally have their updates every 3 hours? I know one thing, Earl is going to have to start turning more NW real soon to hit their forecast spot of 8AM. Maybe he will. We'll see.

6 hours.

2 hour intervals right now:

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
100 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010


< snipped >

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...300 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

yes the advisories come out every 2 hours right now but in deciding the current motion they don't just take the motion from the 2 hours in between the advisories they take the motion from the past 6 hours.

[Crostorm]

picture from ISS
http://twitpic.com/2jtelq

[WeatherGuesser]

Boston Globe Article

[hiflyer]

Last 12 hrs per SJU TWDR nexrad/grlelvel3 overall motion has been 300 degrees. Definitely on a just north of due west for last two hrs...stair step I would hope. This storm has been 'left' of each forecast track for a long period which is quite interesting 'behavior'. Then again how boring would it be if it did what it was supposed to?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/gr ... p_5W.shtml

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 66.7W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM ESE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.49 INCHES

[TampaFl]

Hurricane Earl 3:00am position. Map courtesy http://www.BoatUS.com

[AJC3]

Boston Globe Article

"Kevin Cadima, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Taunton, said the storm is moving north-northwest and is expected to be somewhere west of the Bahamas by early today..."

Moving NNW and forecast to be west of the Bahamas?

[WeatherGuesser]

Forward speed dropped to 13MPH, WNW while Fiona stays W at 23MPH

[WeatherGuesser]

^^^ I guess that would cause a problem for the Keys wouldn't it? Maybe he meant Bermuda?

[jlauderdal]

Boston Globe Article

"Kevin Cadima, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Taunton, said the storm is moving north-northwest and is expected to be somewhere west of the Bahamas by early today..."

Moving NNW and forecast to be west of the Bahamas?

should i put my shutters up?

[TampaFl]

Power Hurricane Earl 5:00am position & Wind field. Mao courtesy http://www.BoatUS.com

[HURAKAN]

EWRC

[OuterBanker]

Something told me not to turn on the tv this am

[OuterBanker]

Further bad news, naional media already here. Today started here this am.

[lester]

Tropical Storm Warning has been cancelled for puerto rico and the virgin islands

[Terry]

Yep, TWC's Stephanie Abrams, live from the OBX.

[HURAKAN]

1st visible

[plasticup]

Tiny little eye! What an interesting appearance.