ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[petit_bois]

Wondering if Bonnie is picking up a bit of strength from Lake O.

If Bonnie can't get anything going over the gulf stream... I wouldn't be too concerned about a lake...

You might want to tell Fay that...

Fay is nowhere in the area... Just Bonnie... I wouldn't be concerned about the Lake helping Bonnie... JMHO

[HURAKAN]

close-up

[Vortmax1]

I was thinking of TS Ernesto in 2006.


Ernesto made landfall at Plantation Key, Florida, in the upper Florida Keys, around 0300 UTC 30 August. A short time later, around 0500 UTC, a second Florida landfall occurred on the Florida mainland in southwestern Miami-Dade County. At both landfalls Ernesto had maximum sustained winds of 40 kt and a minimum central pressure of 1003 mb. Thereafter, Ernesto weakened only slightly, and it remained a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 35 kt throughout the remainder of its path over Florida. The storm moved northward along the center of the Florida peninsula and within a weakness in the mid-level ridge, and the cyclone passed over Lake Okeechobee around 1800 UTC 30 August. Ernesto gradually turned north-northeastward, and its center emerged over the Atlantic Ocean near Cape Canaveral, Florida very early on 31 August.

[HURAKAN]

Bonnie actually was more of a weather-event than Ernerto. I remember that we had a hurricane warning, local stations going 24/7, and we had a shower around midnight and that was it!!! lol

[Ivanhater]

Wow, looks like the track will yet again have to be shifted east.

[Vortmax1]

Oh yeah Hurakan, they called out the National Guard for Ernesto. everyone was worried about the pass over the Straits.
I had some really heavy squalls where I am and watched him start intensifying from the pass over the Western portion of the lake. That is what kept it a TS throughout the trip over Florida.

[ConvergenceZone]

If it hasn't got stronger yet, I don't think it will get stronger once it enters the gulf. It's had plenty of opportunity, and while the shear might be slightly less in the gulf, most models are showing that it will still be there.

[HURAKAN]

Bonnie over Miami-Dade county

[dixiebreeze]

"Fay is nowhere in the area... Just Bonnie... I wouldn't be concerned about the Lake helping Bonnie... JMHO"

Didn't say I'm concerned, just wondering. Lake O has been known to fuel more than one TS/Cane over the years.

[thetruesms]

Center looks to be going over KAMX (Miami's Doppler) now

[Jessie]

When is the ULL supposed to move out of the Gulf?

[HURAKAN]

Someday this picture may be in a trivia question:

Summer squall or tropical storm? lol

[HURAKAN]

When is the ULL supposed to move out of the Gulf?

The ULL was supposed to be a goner days ago. lol

[petit_bois]

"Fay is nowhere in the area... Just Bonnie... I wouldn't be concerned about the Lake helping Bonnie... JMHO"

Didn't say I'm concerned, just wondering. Lake O has been known to fuel more than one TS/Cane over the years.

the center of Bonnie is well to the south of the lake too...

[Vortmax1]

Sometime late Tomorrow (Saturday) the ULL (storm killer) should be inland around the Houston area.

[Vortmax1]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX


AFTER A DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING...SOME ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP AND/OR MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM
THE EAST BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE AREA EVENTUALLY
GETS POSITIONED ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TUTT LOW.

[Vortmax1]

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
1135 AM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

...BONNIE MAKES LANDFALL IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...

SURFACE...RADAR AND AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AT 1100 AM
EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE MADE LANDFALL
IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY NEAR CUTLER BAY WITH ESTIMATED WINDS OF 40
MPH...65 KM/HR.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

What a cute looking system...racing across FL...looks ominous to my SE
as the first band approaches Tampa Bay

[CrazyC83]

Could that upper-level low simply absorb Bonnie and become a new system?

[x-y-no]

Bonnie actually was more of a weather-event than Ernerto. I remember that we had a hurricane warning, local stations going 24/7, and we had a shower around midnight and that was it!!! lol

I don't think I even got a shower out of Ernesto - total bust.

Today I've at least had some strong squalls and a nice steady wind on the beach.