ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[Time_Zone]

Alex starting to blowup now.

[Cyclenall]

I couldn't follow Alex over the weekend but the way Alex has been behaving should be alarming to anyone in it's path. The past 48 hours have been remarkable for this Tropical Cyclone, it's organization actually increased while over land and the only thing land did was temporary weaken the convection. It looked amazing on Saturday morning and was one of the best looking TS's I have ever seen in the Atlantic. Now we have it stalling right by land but somehow managing to strengthen steadily and perhaps quickly. Because of all this, I would not be surprised to see a major hurricane out of this like the NHC discussed yesterday.

[KWT]

Its got probably 10-15kts of shear over the system, nothing that could stop strengthening but maybe it will be something of a limiter. Then again with deep convection blowing up, maybe not...

[somethingfunny]

Its got probably 10-15kts of shear over the system, nothing that could stop strengthening but maybe it will be something of a limiter. Then again with deep convection blowing up, maybe not...

This is substantially more shear than was forecasted. I think the ULL up in Louisiana will cause problems for Alex's anticyclone outflow.

The best news out of all of this is that Guatemala and El Salvador are staying dry for the time being.

[xironman]

Mind you it maybe the case the shear has increased a little as well which is holding the convection back in exactly the same spot whilst the circulation is ever so slowly moving NW, but we need to wait till the Vis.imagery comes in first.

In the absence of visible, I have been looking at the GOM IR2 http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-ir2.html (hate the IR2 on the floaters). Looks to me like the LLC is pretty well covered up regardless.

[xironman]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0851.shtml

THE NORMALLY ROBUST GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE STILL ONLY FORECASTING
MODEST INTENSIFICATION OF ALEX...WHICH REMAINS SOMEWHAT PERPLEXING
GIVEN THE VERY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND IMPRESSIVE
OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH ALEX IS CURRENTLY IN AND IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN EMBEDDED IN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE CURRENT
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS MORE TYPICAL OF SYSTEM NEARING HURRICANE
STRENGTH. GIVEN THAT THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE LOW AND
THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY MOIST IN THE MID-LEVELS
...I SEE NO REASON WHY ALEX SHOULD NOT CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE VERY
RELIABLE LGEM MODEL...WHICH BRINGS ALEX UP TO 90 KT BY 72 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Folks in South Texas and even Central Texas coast should be preparing from today if not from a direct hit,a close call.Even if it makes landfall in NE Mexico,because of the size of the system,many will be affected.

[sphelps8681]

My local weather is still forcasting Mx/Tx landfall. The TWC in this am moved the cone more N.I found intertesting this morning from advisory:

THE ENTIRE NHC MODEL SUITE HAS SHIFTED NORTH AGAIN...ALONG WITH THE ECMWF MODEL. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE I CAN SEE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THAT THE THE
ECMWF...UKMET...AND ESPECIALLY NOGAPS DEPICT ALEX AS A SMALLER AND
WEAKER CYCLONE THAN THE OTHER MODELS ARE FORECASTING. GIVEN THAT
ALEX IS EXPECTED TO BE A RELATIVELY LARGE HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS...
GREATER WEIGHT WAS PLACED ON THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS... WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK...BUT STILL
REMAINS SOUTH OF THE NHC CONSENSUS MODEL..TVCN.

BTW - Just saw my local news forecast track and it's not even going to TX. All Mexico. I guess they use the ECMWF.

[HURAKAN]

ACCUWX'S track

[Dean4Storms]

I think Alex is moving NNW now, I don't see it gaining much longitude.

[SkeetoBite]

[Comanche]

WOW, looking at this, Alex has really lost its broad structure that extended far out in all areas, nothing but a tight area near the center now based on this WV loop- http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html

Look at the clockwise spin to the WSW, and the dry pocket to the NNW. Maybe this is what the models had picked up on when not ramping him back up.

[Texas Snowman]

IMO - unofficial of course - this is starting to really appear worrisome for the Brownsville, Port Isabel, South Padre Island area.

Forecast landfall this morning (knowing this will likely change a number of times over the next few days) is starting to look a little bit too much like Beulah in 1967. That brought a huge surge to SPI (18 feet according to Wiki) and a lot of devestation. The area is built up much, much more today and a major landfalling in the same place would be awful.

As others have alluded to, a key question will be future intensity.

Not an official forecast of course, but in my opinion, this has the look of becoming a long week for residents of the Rio Grande Valley...

[sphelps8681]

Was curious about if the ridge and if it will break down enough for Alex to feel the weakness and go poleward or is that no longer an issue. Not much talk of it on my local channel.

[Texas Snowman]

Depending on size and intensity, that is NOT a good spot for Alex to go in. I guess it could be worse - landfalling closer to Brownsville than currently depicted - but the general idea of a landfalling hurricane immediately south of the Rio Grande is very worrisome.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 281052
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUN 28 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM ALEX IS CENTERED NEAR 19.7N 91.6W AT 28/0900 UTC
OR ABOUT 65 NM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO AND ABOUT 380 NM ESE OF
TAMPICO MEXICO MOVING NW AT 05 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 55 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM
18N-21N BETWEEN 88W-92W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 90W-95W. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/
WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.



$$
HUFFMAN

[cycloneye]

And to add from above comments,if it tracks in the angle the NHC track has it,it would be worse for the Texas coast.

[Portastorm]

WOW, looking at this, Alex has really lost its broad structure that extended far out in all areas, nothing but a tight area near the center now based on this WV loop- http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html

Look at the clockwise spin to the WSW, and the dry pocket to the NNW. Maybe this is what the models had picked up on when not ramping him back up.

That is a good point and the dry air is something posted about here yesterday and was mentioned by Jeff Masters. However, you should note that the upper low over East Texas is pulling off to the east and there is now an inverted trough over West Texas which is slowly moving east and also is pumping moisture from Darby in the Pacific up into Texas. Quite a lot of "players" on the field now.

[SkeetoBite]

And to add from above comments,if it tracks in the angle the NHC track has it,it would be worse for the Texas coast.

Yep. If this track verifies, Brownsville is in a precarious spot and would get the brunt of it. It's a bit too early to tell, even though the NHC has a great track record through 72 hours.

[Texas Snowman]

And to add from above comments,if it tracks in the angle the NHC track has it,it would be worse for the Texas coast.

Yeah, not to hype this, but the forecasted landfall this morning makes me shudder.

Current track isn't too far from being one of those "worst case scenario" kind of storms for Brownsville, especially if Alex does go to major status as some are speculating.