ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

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Maritimer71
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#2781 Postby Maritimer71 » Tue Aug 31, 2010 7:55 am

ColinDelia wrote:Morning everyone. Here is a good tool for estimating how close the eye of a storm will pass to your location on the forecast track.

The site is here: http://stormcarib.com/closest.htm

For anyone that needs detailed instructions:

1. You'll need your latitude and longitude in decimals.
a. If you are in the US go here http://www.zipinfo.com/search/zipcode.htm click on "latitude and longitude" and type in your zip code. Skip to step 2.
b. If you are in Canada go here: http://www.postalcodedownload.com/ and work your way to your lat/long with your zip code. Skip to step 2.
c. If you are somewhere else you can get your latitude and longitude from wikipedia. Just type in your city name and look at "Coordinates" under the map in the right side menu.
d. Copy your latitude and longitude to convert it
e. Go here: http://www.earthpoint.us/Convert.aspx
f. paste your latitude and longitude into "position" (It'll start in a format like this: 28°32′37″N 81°22′22″W)
g. Click "calc" then get your position in "degrees lat long"

2. Next, Go here: http://stormcarib.com/closest.htm

Look for where it says "Currently tracking Earl" It says "Skip to prefilled form". Click on "skip to prefilled form"
This will fill in the most recent coordinates from the National Hurricane Center official forecast.

3. Just type in your coordinates from step (1) to get your closest expected distance.

Don't forget a hurricane is not a point and there is potential error in the forecast track.


That is pretty cool...

Although when I entered my coordinates, with Earl's current track... This is what it said...
How close can it get? wrote:Results for 44.739624N, -63.396355E:
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 45.0N, 63.9W or about 29.6 miles (47.6 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 111.2 hours (Saturday, September 4 at 8:12PM AST).


:eek: Praying for a just a little bit more recurve...
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#2782 Postby pimentel2 » Tue Aug 31, 2010 8:03 am

The newest dynamical models are a bit more further west. If this trend continues, I won't be surprised if I wake up to find that Earl is making landfall here in NE....too early to tell of course.
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Re:

#2783 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 31, 2010 8:04 am

tallbunch wrote:stupid question alert!!!!! :cold:


My MINOR daughter will be flying into NY city on Thursday night by herself. Do you think I should cancel this or will Thursday night be okay?


Image

There's no stupid question! She can fly perfectly. Look at the track.
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Re: Re:

#2784 Postby tailgater » Tue Aug 31, 2010 8:05 am

HURAKAN wrote:
Time_Zone wrote:What the hell is wrong with Earl? He doesn't look half as impressive as he did last night.

Is it an EWRC, or is he just starting to weaken already?


There is nothing wrong with Earl. EWRC ... pressure up to 935 mb

He'll be back to his former self



I think he's top out. the dry and what looks like ULL developing to the NW, which may help curve him out to sea. The ULL is very weak right now but it wont take much in these weak steering currents.
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Re: Re:

#2785 Postby KBBOCA » Tue Aug 31, 2010 8:08 am

HURAKAN wrote:
Did the math!!


THANKS HURAKAN!! :D I vaguely remember that I once knew how to do such math!!! LOL.
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Re: Re:

#2786 Postby CourierPR » Tue Aug 31, 2010 8:13 am

tailgater wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:
Time_Zone wrote:What the hell is wrong with Earl? He doesn't look half as impressive as he did last night.

Is it an EWRC, or is he just starting to weaken already?


There is nothing wrong with Earl. EWRC ... pressure up to 935 mb

He'll be back to his former self



I think he's top out. the dry and what looks like ULL developing to the NW, which may help curve him out to sea. The ULL is very weak right now but it wont take much in these weak steering currents.
In the interest of accuracy, I don't think there is a ULL to Earl's NW. An advancing front is what is supposed to cause the turn.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#2787 Postby Frank2 » Tue Aug 31, 2010 8:16 am

So far so good - glad my concerns of yesterday were unfounded (so far)...

Interesting to note that after Earl the GFS does not show anything through Day 10 but a typical quiet early Fall weather pattern:

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_500p_loop.html
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#2788 Postby tailgater » Tue Aug 31, 2010 8:38 am

CourierPR In the interest of accuracy, I don't think there is a ULL to Earl's NW. An advancing front is what is supposed to cause the turn

I should have said (ULL)is NNW, but it is diving SSW rather quickly. That's just the way it looks to me. I know the trough is supposed to turn it later in the week but this may help steer it farther off the coast.
http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sa ... verlay=off
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#2789 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 31, 2010 8:42 am

Frank2 wrote:So far so good - glad my concerns of yesterday were unfounded (so far)...

Interesting to note that after Earl the GFS does not show anything through Day 10 but a typical quiet early Fall weather pattern:

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_500p_loop.html


Frank you say that after every GFS run. You know that right.... :D
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#2790 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Aug 31, 2010 8:42 am

tailgater wrote:CourierPR In the interest of accuracy, I don't think there is a ULL to Earl's NW. An advancing front is what is supposed to cause the turn

I should have said (ULL)is NNW, but it is diving SSW rather quickly. That's just the way it looks to me. I know the trough is supposed to turn it later in the week but this may help steer it farther off the coast.
http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sa ... verlay=off

thats a trough. Its supposed to miss earl. The next one is the one that is supposed to turn earl. The only ULL i see is over alabama and moving west.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#2791 Postby fox » Tue Aug 31, 2010 8:44 am

this form is great
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#2792 Postby CourierPR » Tue Aug 31, 2010 8:46 am

tailgater wrote:CourierPR In the interest of accuracy, I don't think there is a ULL to Earl's NW. An advancing front is what is supposed to cause the turn

I should have said (ULL)is NNW, but it is diving SSW rather quickly. That's just the way it looks to me. I know the trough is supposed to turn it later in the week but this may help steer it farther off the coast.
http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sa ... verlay=off
Notice the circulation is clockwise, which if I'm not mistaken, is high pressure.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#2793 Postby MGC » Tue Aug 31, 2010 8:49 am

Since Earl is in the process of an EWRC, expect the hurricane's intensity to decrease as the new larger eye forms. The new eye will then contract and the intensity will increase. Hurricane Ivan had several EWRC and recovered back to Cat-5 after each cycle. Still have my concerns for the EC.....MGC
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#2794 Postby ColinDelia » Tue Aug 31, 2010 8:55 am

Maritimer71 wrote: :eek: Praying for a just a little bit more recurve...


For real!
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#2795 Postby shah8 » Tue Aug 31, 2010 8:55 am

The most important thing is that EWRCs increases the thickness of the greatest strength winds around the eye sometimes, especially the first one or two.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#2796 Postby CronkPSU » Tue Aug 31, 2010 8:58 am

I'm kinda concerned that this thread is so slow this morning, hope people on the northern east coast are taking this serously,i expected this page to be packed this morning
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#2797 Postby sandyb » Tue Aug 31, 2010 8:58 am

does anyone know when we will be going under hurricane watch or will we in carteret co nc
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#2798 Postby Frank2 » Tue Aug 31, 2010 8:59 am

Well, it's now at 21N so it's definitely showing a more NW motion that WNW, so it's looking better when it comes to remaining far enough off shore to miss the US EC and perhaps Canada, too, since it's forecast to have a more NE motion once beyond 45N...

Frank
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#2799 Postby TheBurn » Tue Aug 31, 2010 9:01 am

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#2800 Postby HurrMark » Tue Aug 31, 2010 9:03 am

Earl is still tracking a bit south of the forecasted position:

8 AM actual: 20.9 N, 76.4 W
11 PM 8/30 forecast @ 8 AM: 20.9 N, 76.2 W
11 AM 8/30 forecast @ 8 AM: 21.0 N, 76.0 W

This is only a few ticks...but it is worth noting.

Do keep in mind that a further south track may be better for NC, since the trough will hit it south of NC instead of at the same latitude of NC, where it bulges out.
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