ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION

[Ivanhater]

Obvious inflow going into the center. This may be upgraded tonight

[ozonepete]

Obvious inflow going into the center. This may be upgraded tonight

I'm with you guys. These small ones can get to a TD and then TS in a few hours.

[KWT]

The conditions don't look great on that WV but its quite evidently developing into a system, probably its tiny size is shielding it somewhat.

[Thunder44]

Cold-cloud tops are warming. That's not indication of system that is developing rapdily. I don't think NHC will upgrade this evening:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-avn.html

I don't think the IR really matters, its clearly wrapping, its obvious as you can get now really that this is developing into a TD, IMO its pretty clear cut...tops are warming due to D-Min, soon as that eases they will deepen again.

It's clearly gotten better organized today. I just don't think NHC will upgrade while the cold-cloud tops are overall warming. But there are few t-storms blowing up near the center now.

[Ivanhater]

[I-wall]

Cold-cloud tops are warming. That's not indication of system that is developing rapdily. I don't think NHC will upgrade this evening:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-avn.html

I don't think the IR really matters, its clearly wrapping, its obvious as you can get now really that this is developing into a TD, IMO its pretty clear cut...tops are warming due to D-Min, soon as that eases they will deepen again.

It's clearly gotten better organized today. I just don't think NHC will upgrade while the cold-cloud tops are overall warming. But there are few t-storms blowing up near the center now.

Yep, convection is certainly beginning to fire near the center.

[brunota2003]

That's amazing that it barely takes up one box!

[cycloneye]

Little Marcos redux looks impressive.

[KWT]

I think the NHC will take one look at a Vis loop and find it very hard to come up with a reason not to upgrade...I mean it has some decent banding going on, I've not known too many invests which have had such evident banding and not get upgraded very soon after.

Remember that saying, if it quacks like a duck, looks like a duck, it probably is a duck!

[Ikester]

How much trouble would it be for the original flight today with Recon to go on as scheduled? From Biloxi to the storm would be a 45 min. flight. They really should consider it. Do they ever go ahead with canceled missions?

[TwisterFanatic]

Wow i didn't expect 95L to intensify like it has today i think it could be upgraded tonight.

[ozonepete]

The conditions don't look great on that WV but its quite evidently developing into a system, probably its tiny size is shielding it somewhat.

Yeah, but remember that that particular water vapor imagery doesn't show mid-level water vapor well at all, and upper level dry air is not important for development or intensification.

[pepeavilenho]

Remember that saying, if it quacks like a duck, looks like a duck, it probably is a duck!

Vince revival....

Well, 95-L looks like pre-Grace last season...
It needs consistence....and if we see NHC has orange/red advise, it will be upgraded at TD
It happened last October with Grace.

Now or never Mss. Bonnie Tyler...

[Steve]

I'm waiting for tonight to see what happens when the cloud tops start cooling again. Anyway, I found some higher winds north of 95L in the Marine Weather Statement out of NO/BR.

331 PM CDT SUN JUL 4 2010

...STRONG SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE WATERS...

AT 325 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS...FROM
GRAND ISLE TO 69 NM SOUTHEAST OF BARATARIA BAY...OR FROM 3 NM
SOUTHWEST OF GRAND ISLE TO 32 NM SOUTHEAST OF PILOTTOWN...MOVING
WEST AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS...LOCALLY HIGHER
WAVES...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE
HARBOR IMMEDIATELY UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES.

THESE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WATERSPOUTS WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING. SEEK SAFE
HARBOR IF A WATERSPOUT IS SPOTTED.

LAT...LON 2874 8894 2908 9019 2952 8992 2933 8977
2936 8960 2927 8946 2911 8940 2917 8926
2906 8932 2913 8923 2905 8918 2910 8911
2933 8918 2928 8926 2935 8927 2942 8958
2923 8866
---------------------------------
Also, it's on the edge of radar coverage, but you can see the turning there as well.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[chzzdekr81]

Remember Claudette last year? I remember going to sleep right after visiting NHC's website (it was code yellow). Woke up it was a depression and soon became a tropical storm.

[KWT]

Wow i didn't expect 95L to intensify like it has today i think it could be upgraded tonight.

Yeah I think its caught everyone out including the NHC, afterall they went for ust 10% of development when in truth it probably should be upgraded really..whether they do pull the trigger or wait a little longer I'm not sure.

[Hurricane Andrew]

The race is on. Which Invest will become Bonnie? WHich will be Colin.

Oh, hurricane score...

Atlantic:1
EPAC:4
(NS only)

[Ivanhater]

[Stormcenter]

Check out the burst of convection in the latest loop below in what looks like
the "center" area of 95L.....interesting.

It almost looks like it's SSE of the mouth of MS. river. IMO

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

[Ikester]

System getting organized fast. Could see Tropical Storm Watches/Warnings issued for central and western Louisiana or parts of southeast Texas before the night is over. Wouldn't surprise me.