ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[Comanche]

What can you tell me about the broad clockwise spin to the WSW? It seems that would have an impact on the structure of Alex.

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 281131
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUN 28 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ALEX...LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ABOUT 75 MILES WEST
OF CAMPECHE MEXICO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Comanche]

So, no 7 am update because the Mexican Government hasn't put up any warnings?? Is this a case of if you ignore it, it will go away?

[HURAKAN]

So, no 7 am update because the Mexican Government hasn't put up any warnings?? Is this a case of if you ignore it, it will go away?

No need for warning at the moment. TS winds are not affecting the coast and Alex is about 3 days or more from landfall.

[cycloneye]

Is getting better organized and stronger.

MAX FL WIND 57 KT NE QUAD 11:23:40Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
GOOD SPIRAL BAND EAST SIDE OF CENTER FIX

[HURAKAN]

the intensity seems to be 45 knots and pressure 989 mb

[alan1961]

Are the floaters and area sats having issues updating?

[Comanche]

Are the floaters and area sats having issues updating?

I have been dealing with that too, it doesn't refresh. Go to the Gulf of Mexico or Western Atlantic set (somewhere you have not already loaded in a loop) and try, it should bring up the current loop. I'm not sure why you cannot refresh once a loop is loaded in.

[HURAKAN]

Wilma:

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...15.8 N... 79.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...DRIFTING SOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB.

Very rare to see in the Atlantic the pressure so low associated with 50 mph winds.

[alan1961]

Are the floaters and area sats having issues updating?

I have been dealing with that too, it doesn't refresh. Go to the Gulf of Mexico or Western Atlantic set (somewhere you have not already loaded in a loop) and try, it should bring up the current loop. I'm not sure why you cannot refresh once a loop is loaded in.

ok comanche thanks for the reply, just thought it
maybe my lappy playing up, i like to have the java loops
running as they seem to be the ones that auto refresh
as opposed to the flash loops.

[Cape Verde]

I don't get it, obviously.

Looking at all the latest model runs that I can find, the majority of them suggest landfall north of Brownsville, more around the Corpus Christi area.

The center of the NHC cone is south of Brownsville in Mexico. Corpus itself is just slightly OUT of the cone.

[HURAKAN]

First visible

[cycloneye]

It has to get away from Yucatan to then get free from land friction.

[cycloneye]

SSD dvorak

28/1145 UTC 19.9N 91.7W T3.0/3.0 ALEX -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[sphelps8681]

When Alex becomes a hurricane will it be more compelled to go more North? When will or is the ridge breaking down? Sorry if this seems like stupid questions. I have been here since 2007 but still not all that great at understanding all the maps and data presented here.

Thanks

[johngaltfla]

I don't mean to wish ill will on Mexico, but if this takes the more northern to NNW track, Alex will have more time over those warm waters and very little to inhibit from intensifying gang. This is one scary scenario when you look at the potential paths for this storm north of the Mexican border.

[ronjon]

Looks to moving almost due north now - the latest GFDL model actually has it move N-NE over the next 12-24 hrs.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640_anis.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1

[Frank P]

I was going say the same thing.. more to the NNW as best I can see on the sat loops.. very slowly I might add

[Frank2]

Good morning everyone,

It seems to be looping ATTM (waiting for the next system to give it a push) - also a dimple-like feature is seen in the latest image but not sure if that's just due to sun angle and cloud height...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

[allicat1214]

Because of Alex's size and the far reaching effects of its far outer bands in the central and eastern gulf, people all along the northern gulf WILL feel the effects of this TS. Rain showers are already falling in south LA.

More importantly this year because of the oil, people need to keep an eye on local tides and there is a Coastal Flood Watch in effect from Morgan City to the Ms/AL line. Winds are from the south and will be pushing an "oily tide" into areas that haven't yet been impacted by the oil.

Also, the forecast for offshore waters says TS conditions will be in effect south of 28N Tues-Wed night. The Deepwater Horizon site is 28.73667,-88.38716. Forecast for north of 28N during that time is E TO SE WINDS TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT. Not the best working conditions for cleanup.

And this forecast is based on a Brownsville landfall....conditions will worsen if Alex goes farther north.