ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[Ivanhater]

I'm having a hard time seeing this get west of Mississippi, and that may be generous...

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Looks like I'll be getting a nice rainband from Bonnie in about an hour.

[tolakram]

30 frame loop, speed it up.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30

Looks like the LLC is opening up right now. You never know with Bonnie, of course, but the storm does not look healthy.

[Stormcenter]

Your're right never say never.

The ULL has always been an issue with Bonnie and many
thought it wasn't going to be. It was and continues to be.

IMHO Bonnie is done. The ULL has slowed down and she'll be headed into even more shear. I know better than to say never but I think Bones should be getting a call soon. Just enough of a threat to stop some of the clean up operations.

[Vortmax1]

Yes, I'm happy the ULL is part of this scenario!

[Nimbus]

The upper air environment has remained extremely poor thanks to our friend the ULL. I couldn't be happier and with the right perspective, forecasting a crappy upper air environment can be just as much fun as watching a cat 4 spin up in the gulf.

[crazycajuncane]

The best part of this is how much the media hyped up this storm...

The media is really interested in a Storm versus Oil story...

Bonnie has struggled for life and now the ULL is driving Bonnie into a mess.

I was trying to tell people at work yesterday... we were a direct hit at 4pm yesterday and by last night the models kept shifting east... It's better to be a direct hit 72+ hours out.

Bonnie does not look good today.

[cycloneye]

It looks like NHC will downgrade to TD at 5 PM.

18z Best Track

AL, 03, 2010072318, , BEST, 0, 258N, 811W, 30, 1008, TD

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[lester]

It looks like NHC will downgrade to TD at 5 PM.

18z Best Track

AL, 03, 2010072318, , BEST, 0, 258N, 811W, 30, 1008, TD

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Not really surprised since it's overland. Should be in the gulf by tonight.

[chzzdekr81]

Looks like we're out of it

[HurricaneJoe22]

http://hot.aol.com/2010/07/23/full-spee ... -bonnie%2F

[Tropics Guy]

Bonnie looks like a sheared FL afternoon Thunderstorm, not much left of her thanks to the ULL. At least we got some decent rainfall in a few squalls from her today & some breezes, but not much else.................

TG

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Seems like a normal summer afternoon...except the envelope of rain is larger...the
wind is very calm here...normally with a TS so close you should get some strong wind
gusts...but the wind is completely calm.

For comparison TS Barry which moved through in June 2007 had much stronger
winds.

[wxman57]

Looking like Bonnie might get ripped apart this evening. Not sure it can survive the eastern side of that upper low. Notice that all the heavy convection has shifted to the northwest side of what's left of the LLC. Strong SE winds aloft will do that.

[Stormcenter]

Bonnie is not dead yet. She may be later today or tomorrow but right now she is far from it. Look at loop below and you can see her circulation and convection starting flare up and as she begins to enter the GOM. As I'vd said before it should be at least interesting to see what becomes of her in the GOM.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30

[dixiebreeze]

The upper air environment has remained extremely poor thanks to our friend the ULL. I couldn't be happier and with the right perspective, forecasting a crappy upper air environment can be just as much fun as watching a cat 4 spin up in the gulf.

The TUTT looks to be getting a bit weaker and convection is ramping up just a bit. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-rb.html

[funster]

Looking like Bonnie might get ripped apart this evening. Not sure it can survive the eastern side of that upper low. Notice that all the heavy convection has shifted to the northwest side of what's left of the LLC. Strong SE winds aloft will do that.

Yup, guess she won't get to be a Cat 2 like you predicted. Good forecasting forecaster.

[drezee]

I actually like the tight little circulation. Homestead had 26 mph 2-minute sustained due west wind. 41 mph winds on shore officially observed.

http://www.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KFLL.html

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Looking like Bonnie might get ripped apart this evening. Not sure it can survive the eastern side of that upper low. Notice that all the heavy convection has shifted to the northwest side of what's left of the LLC. Strong SE winds aloft will do that.

Yup, guess she won't get to be a Cat 2 like you predicted. Good forecasting forecaster.

I don't think anyone predicted a Cat 2...

[funster]

Looking like Bonnie might get ripped apart this evening. Not sure it can survive the eastern side of that upper low. Notice that all the heavy convection has shifted to the northwest side of what's left of the LLC. Strong SE winds aloft will do that.

Yup, guess she won't get to be a Cat 2 like you predicted. Good forecasting forecaster.

I don't think anyone predicted a Cat 2...

Oh, whoops Sorry waxman57.