ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[lovestorms84]

Results for 37.0494N, 76.3385W:
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 35.4N, 73.0W or about 216.6 miles (348.6 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 79.1 hours (Friday, September 3 at 12:06PM

This is for Hampton Roads, VA
Thank God I believe this is to far East to make an impact for us?

[HURAKAN]

historical

[CourierPR]

Well, it's now at 21N so it's definitely showing a more NW motion that WNW, so it's looking better when it comes to remaining far enough off shore to miss the US EC and perhaps Canada, too, since it's forecast to have a more NE motion once beyond 45N...

Frank

Wow! That's a fairly bold prediction. By the way, what exactly was your job when you were in the weather business?

[WilmingtonSandbar]

does anyone know when we will be going under hurricane watch or will we in carteret co nc

Sandy, as has said a couple times before, more will be known on Wednesday. I wouldn't expect any warnings or watches issued until then, if any. It is simply just still too far out. You shouldn't feel any effects from the storm in your area until late Thursday night to Friday morning unless the storm speeds up quite a bit above forecast. Go ahead and get preparations done (chances are it's yard work stuff you need to do anyway), and just keep an eye on the storm. I get the impression you are starting to worry yourself to no end about this and there are still 3 days ahead of you to worry. At that rate you won't make it to Friday. Deep breaths.

[HurrMark]

Well, it's now at 21N so it's definitely showing a more NW motion that WNW, so it's looking better when it comes to remaining far enough off shore to miss the US EC and perhaps Canada, too, since it's forecast to have a more NE motion once beyond 45N...

Frank

Well, in the last 13 hours, it moved 13 ticks north and 22 ticks west...or about 302 degrees...in the last 6, it moved 6 ticks north and 11 ticks west...or about 300 degrees...if anything, it has moved slightly more WNW. Hopefully that will change later today.

[GCANE]

Core temp up, boundary-layer inversion gone.

[eastcoastFL]

Tonight will tell the true story for the turn as all the advisorys yesterday were talking about the nnw/north turn being tonight.

[Malcome]

Hm. So, it does not look good for Nova Scotia right now. In fact, I am getting my house, AND my store ready, just in case. I do see that people are predicting that it will be down to a Cat 1 when it gets to Nova Scotia. Does the fact that yesterday, and the next 3 days here in NS, it is going to be 30+ degrees? Things are going to be REALLY warm around here, and I thought that maybe it could add fuel to the storm?

[eastcoastFL]

Well, it's now at 21N so it's definitely showing a more NW motion that WNW, so it's looking better when it comes to remaining far enough off shore to miss the US EC and perhaps Canada, too, since it's forecast to have a more NE motion once beyond 45N...

Frank

Well, in the last 13 hours, it moved 13 ticks north and 22 ticks west...or about 302 degrees...in the last 6, it moved 6 ticks north and 11 ticks west...or about 300 degrees...if anything, it has moved slightly more WNW. Hopefully that will change later today.

I saw the same thing albeit I am having a hard time finding the center

[eastcoastFL]

Hm. So, it does not look good for Nova Scotia right now. In fact, I am getting my house, AND my store ready, just in case. I do see that people are predicting that it will be down to a Cat 1 when it gets to Nova Scotia. Does the fact that yesterday, and the next 3 days here in NS, it is going to be 30+ degrees? Things are going to be REALLY warm around here, and I thought that maybe it could add fuel to the storm?

The temp in NS shouldn't play a role in the storms intensity. After Wilma it was freezing here.

[Luc56]

Hm. So, it does not look good for Nova Scotia right now. In fact, I am getting my house, AND my store ready, just in case. I do see that people are predicting that it will be down to a Cat 1 when it gets to Nova Scotia. Does the fact that yesterday, and the next 3 days here in NS, it is going to be 30+ degrees? Things are going to be REALLY warm around here, and I thought that maybe it could add fuel to the storm?

The temp in NS shouldn't play a role in the storms intensity. After Wilma it was freezing here.

Yeah, should be looking forward to the storm skimming by us here in NS (hopefully with no damage), as it should whipe out this heat wave. Malcome isn't lying, it is freakin' hot here in NS! But yeah air temperature won't have any effect on the storm.

[HURAKAN]

Newport/Morehead City, NC forecast by THU at 2 am. Very likely this will change, either for better or for worse. Stay tuned to your local NWS. In my opinion, if you live from the Carolinas to New England and also Atlantic Canada, you should be looking to your hurricane preparation plan and be ready to act if it's necessary. This is not telling you to go running to Home Depot or Publix, just keep in mind what would you need to survive a hurricane and be ready to act if it's called. There are too many variables in question and do not put your entire faith in the computer models. Good luck!

[Frank2]

I was in Sebring at the time of Wilma and the night after it passed to our southeast it was windy still with temps in the low 50s (cold for South Florida)...

Yesterday I was concerned that the ridge to the northwest of Earl was much stronger than forecast, but today it seems more likely to me that the NHC forecast track will take place and hopefully for those in Nova Scotia (and my family in Maine) it'll remain on the east side of the forecast cone...

Time will tell, but it's looking better this morning because the forecast trough does seem like it will be deep enough to keep Earl offshore...

Frank

[yzerfan]

does anyone know when we will be going under hurricane watch or will we in carteret co nc

My guess would be the Tuesday night full advisory package if the possible westward path holds. That would be getting close to the 48 hour window typically used for watches, and given the difficulties with possible evacuation in the OBX, a little sooner than later would probably be called for.

As it is, the NHC is using the "Interests in _____ should monitor" language that suggests emergency planning should begin even though the time fram isn't technically right to issue watches yet.

[CrazyC83]

Is it too early to give Bermuda the all clear?

[KWT]

I was in Sebring at the time of Wilma and the night after it passed to our southeast it was windy still with temps in the low 50s (cold for South Florida)...

Yesterday I was concerned that the ridge to the northwest of Earl was much stronger than forecast, but today it seems more likely to me that the NHC forecast track will take place and hopefully for those in Nova Scotia (and my family in Maine) it'll remain on the east side of the forecast cone...

Time will tell, but it's looking better this morning because the forecast trough does seem like it will be deep enough to keep Earl offshore...

Frank

Interesting post Frank but these sorts of close systems can pull surprises, you only need a small kink in the upper trough or some sort of small wave feature that wasn't expected to develop anywhere along the flow to bring a system like Earl far enough west to hit the Outer Banks.

I've been away for a few days but see the NE Caribbean did end up getting whacked, I suspect now the Outer Banks at the very least have a pretty wild day when it comes close, but wouldn't shock me to see its western core actually hit.

Also ECM id an exceptional job on he strength forecast progging 932mbs for right now which looks nearly spot on, though the track forecast wasn't as good, highly unusual for it to be that way round!

[Cyclone1]

Is it too early to give Bermuda the all clear?

I would think not. Seems pretty safe to say that.

[wxman57]

Well, it's now at 21N so it's definitely showing a more NW motion that WNW, so it's looking better when it comes to remaining far enough off shore to miss the US EC and perhaps Canada, too, since it's forecast to have a more NE motion once beyond 45N...

Frank

Well, in the last 13 hours, it moved 13 ticks north and 22 ticks west...or about 300 degrees...in the last 6, it moved 6 ticks north and 11 ticks west...or about 298 degrees...if anything, it has moved slightly more WNW. Hopefully that will change later today.

You can't judge true motion that way when a storm moves out of the deep tropics, as each tenth of a degree north always represents 6 nautical miles, but each tenth of a degree longitude represents less and less the farther north you go.

[x-y-no]

Is it too early to give Bermuda the all clear?

At this point, it would be a massively blown forecast if Earl had any meaningful effect on Bermuda beyond a little wave action..

Fiona, we'll have to wait and see.

[ConvergenceZone]

Well, it's now at 21N so it's definitely showing a more NW motion that WNW, so it's looking better when it comes to remaining far enough off shore to miss the US EC and perhaps Canada, too, since it's forecast to have a more NE motion once beyond 45N...

Frank

All I know Frank is that the westward trend continues and they continue to move the models westward. It's even forecasted to get closer to the coast than it was when I went to bed last night....The US is still very much in the danzer zone...

I know you just like to be optimistic regarding storms , but sometimes that's not enough....