ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

Up to 50kts.

AL, 01, 2010062812, , BEST, 0, 201N, 916W, 50, 989, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[ronjon]

Look at the convective mass filling the north-central GOM. This is very similar to what the GFS forecast 2 days ago. There appears to be some vorticity south of La - may be associated with that weak ULL. It may be very wet along the northern gulf coast this week.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[cycloneye]

Moving slowly NNW at 330 degrees.

LATCUR = 20.1N LONCUR = 91.6W DIRCUR = 330DEG SPDCUR = 6KT

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical ... 281256.txt

[alan1961]

the sat presentation appears to show alex
tussling with coastal interaction/friction and a
feeder band to its north is trying desperately
to spread out but not making much impression
at the moment, he's got a coastal issue at the
moment as alex(ander not so great)

[ronjon]

Luis, due north the last 3 hours - 5 am fix 19.7N - 91.6W.

[funster]

Moving slowly NNW at 330 degrees.

LATCUR = 20.1N LONCUR = 91.6W DIRCUR = 330DEG SPDCUR = 6KT

It has made no progress to the west since the 4am cdt advisory position of 19.7°N 91.6°W

[Comanche]

Based on WV loops, I am becoming more bearish on the future of Alex as far as impacts to the northern leaning models, there is more dry air in the last few frames moving in from the west to reinforce the dry air that sits north of the system, and the front has moved more north now as well. I think the euro may score the coup.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html

[vaffie]

hurricane force winds at flight level in NE quadrant (66 knots)...

[cycloneye]

This is a sign of a system that is getting stronger. Below is the data from recon.

MAX FL WIND 66 KT NE QUAD 13:23:40Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 66 KT NE QUAD 13:23:40Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
GOOD ARC / SPIRAL BAND NE - SE
MAX OUTBOUND SFC WND 51 KTS NE QUAD 13:21:30 Z

[Air Force Met]

This does not bode well for the future. Alex is deepening with 1) Little Deep Convection; 2) Southerly In-flo cut off; 3) Over the coolest water he will traverse.

[Macrocane]

It's interesting because IMO the IR presentation of Alex has deteriorated on the last few hours.

[Frank2]

cycloneye,

That explain's Alex's dimple - perhaps the upcoming TCD will mention that feature...

[Comanche]

:uarrow: It's interesting because IMO the IR presentation of Alex has deteriorated on the last few hours.

This is what my untrained eyes see as well.

[jlauderdal]

:uarrow: It's interesting because IMO the IR presentation of Alex has deteriorated on the last few hours.

could be doing some reorganizing after the intensity gain the last 12 hours, pressure and wind field getting in sync, all systems go for alex...system is also getting more fuel and less land interaction so fluctuations certainly expected.

[Normandy]

Even though the IR appearance may be deteriorating, its evident that the circulation is very robust. Its pulling clouds southwards all the way to the TX/MX border and pulling clouds NW east of the Yucatan. Very large and healthy LLC.

[N2Storms]

IMO, this is beginning to look more like a mid to upper Tx coast storm and if that's the case, the Oil Spill area is going to have to start making preps to evacuate....today is going to be a critical time for them (Oil Spill relief clean up crews) to evaluate and decision make

[Frank2]

IMO, this is beginning to look more like a mid to upper Tx coast storm and if that's the case, the Oil Spill area is going to have to start making preps to evacuate....today is going to be a critical time for them (Oil Spill relief clean up crews) to evaluate and decision make

The timing of the trough will be critical...

[Countrygirl911]

hi everyone i am new to this. But for some reason i have this very weird feeling that is going to be a TX/LA storm do not get me wrong i wish it would move due west but i just got that bad feeling does anyone else have the same feeling as i do

[kjg123]

I am wondering, how much rain may fall this week in the New Orleans area. Looks like a lot of moisture coming their way.

[allicat1214]

IMO, this is beginning to look more like a mid to upper Tx coast storm and if that's the case, the Oil Spill area is going to have to start making preps to evacuate....today is going to be a critical time for them (Oil Spill relief clean up crews) to evaluate and decision make

With the current official NHC track going into N MX, the forecast for south of 28N is 33KT winds Tues-Wed nite.... the deepwater horizon site is just north of that 28.73... and 33KT is just 1KT lower than the gale force wind of 34KT that Thad Allen said was their threshold for evacuating.

So, yea I think you are right....They'll have to evacuate, stop all containment efforts and there will be MORE oil spewing forth!