ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[Trishasmom]

I'm in Norfolk/Virginia Beach area and this morning, I made the arduous trek to Mall-Wart to buy water and some canned goods and such. There was *no one* else buying water this morning and their shelves were pretty well stocked. I was surprised to be "lone shopper on aisle 17."

Secondly, there's been very little in the local media about this (as a prior poster said). That's a puzzle. Any ideas what that's about?

Rose

Complacency...

Yeah people in this area seem to think that it can't happen here or won't happen here. The really last storm that I'm aware of to make a direct landfall in SE VA was the 1933 Chesapeake/Potomac storm which according to the track map I've looked at made landfall around VA Beach, though the article says OBX. Isabel in 2003 was a really close call for the area, but she also hit the OBX first. 1933 was much further north and east than Isabel in terms of landfall location. SE VA will be in big trouble when the next major storm makes a direct hit. Hopefully it never happens, but I think it will one day.

I honestly don't think it's complacency. Most of us long term Virginians know that it can and does happen to us just not as often as other places. As far as rushing out to stock up on groceries and such, well it could be several reasons but one I can think of is money. Many are probably waiting on checks to come or payday etc. Many are on a fixed income and storm or no storm just might not have the means to buy anything extra at this point. Some may keep their pantries stocked after Isabel so it could be many reasons for not rushing out to the grocery stores. As far as weather reports well what can they actually tell you yet? It's going to hit, or maybe it won't? More than likely you will hear more about Earl as the day progresses and Earl gives a better indication of what he is planning on doing. I kind of feel bad for those who do the forecasts, if they say something "might" happen and it doesn't then they don't know what they are talking about (I'm not saying that but what I hear others say) or if they don't say anything right away then they should have given more warning etc. With any storm much of it is a wait and see what will or won't happen and then reporting the facts and not sensationalizing it. Storms are not something easily built into your budget and if you live payday to payday and something like Earl comes along well then you just do the best you can do and pray all goes well. It so much easier to say what a person should do and a lot hard for some of us to be able to follow those directions. JMHO

[KBBOCA]

According to the 11:00 advisory NHC says a hurricane watch may be posted for portions of the Mid-Atlantic later today. Any ideas where and when? I'm in Va Beach.

I'm not a professional, but my understanding is that watches would be issued for areas in the 3-day NHC cone. You can find that here:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... e#contents

[KWT]

According to the 11am discussion I'll probably be able to fly my hurricane flags this pm.

Yeah probably will see hurricane watches come out later on today at some point, as well as some TS watches as well...I suspect on the current path at the very least the Outer Banks will get is quite alot of outer bands and very gusty conditions all round.

[Recurve]

Hoping for the best for the East Coast and Nova Scotia. Unless the track shifts significantly west, with the core just offshore, the Outer Banks will have the strongest winds from the N and West, and that could mean significant flooding on the sounds sides of islands. Of course ocean swells can be devastating to oceanfront homes and businesses, but don't let your guard down if you are on the sound side or near rivers and creeks that can rise significantly.

Be sure to use forecasts from local NWS offices for local effects, marine warnings, flood advisories, evacuation information. People inland on the mainland should be safer from storm surge effects but rain could produce significant flooding in low-lying areas. Be prepared for losing power and make sure you know right now if you are in an evacuation zone.

NWS Moorehead discussion snip:

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MON...THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BE
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF HURRICANE EARL. OFFICIAL NHC TRACK
CONTINUES TO SHOW EARL MAINTAINING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...BUT
REMAINING OFFSHORE OF CAPE HATTERAS THU INTO THU NIGHT. MODELS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL WITH TRACK OF EARL...THOUGH NAM
CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER. BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL WILL BE
ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS...PRIMARILY THE OUTER BANKS. HURRICANE
EARL IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT COASTAL REGIONS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH STRONGER WINDS...INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK FOR ALL
BEACHES...INCREASED SURF...AND POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING. AT
THIS TIME...THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM. IT WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED AS THE IMPACTS FROM THE
SYSTEM COULD VARY GREATLY DEPENDING UPON THE TRACK.

HURRICANE EARL SHOULD PULL OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WITH
WESTERLY FLOW DRYING THINGS OUT. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE WITH THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA SUN-MON.

Moorehead forecast office Home:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/mhx/

[KWT]

Looking at recon maybe just the first hints of a double eyewall trying to develop in the NE quadrant, quite an obvious double wind Maxima there from the looks of things, also impressive 129kts FL wind, so clearly still a beast of a hurricane!

[CrazyC83]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Based on the projected track, here is what I would personally do:

Hurricane Watch - New River Inlet, NC to Cape Charles Light, VA (to cover the Outer Banks and Hampton Roads) including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

Tropical Storm Watch - Little River Inlet, SC (at NC line) to New River Inlet, NC

Watches for the lower Chesapeake/lower Potomac (upper Chesapeake/upper Potomac shouldn't be needed unless the storm goes farther west), the Delmarva and farther north would come later.

[JtSmarts]

Looking at recon maybe just the first hints of a double eyewall trying to develop in the NE quadrant, quite an obvious double wind Maxima there from the looks of things, also impressive 129kts FL wind, so clearly still a beast of a hurricane!

It would interesting if Earl managed to go through an entire EWRC and never weaken.

[UpTheCreek]

Hoping for the best for the East Coast and Nova Scotia. Unless the track shifts significantly west, with the core just offshore, the Outer Banks will have the strongest winds from the N and West, and that could mean significant flooding on the sounds sides of islands. Of course ocean swells can be devastating to oceanfront homes and businesses, but don't let your guard down if you are on the sound side or near rivers and creeks that can rise significantly.

Be sure to use forecasts from local NWS offices for local effects, marine warnings, flood advisories, evacuation information. People inland on the mainland should be safer from storm surge effects but rain could produce significant flooding in low-lying areas. Be prepared for losing power and make sure you know right now if you are in an evacuation zone.

NWS Moorehead discussion snip:

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MON...THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BE
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF HURRICANE EARL. OFFICIAL NHC TRACK
CONTINUES TO SHOW EARL MAINTAINING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...BUT
REMAINING OFFSHORE OF CAPE HATTERAS THU INTO THU NIGHT. MODELS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL WITH TRACK OF EARL...THOUGH NAM
CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER. BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL WILL BE
ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS...PRIMARILY THE OUTER BANKS. HURRICANE
EARL IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT COASTAL REGIONS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH STRONGER WINDS...INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK FOR ALL
BEACHES...INCREASED SURF...AND POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING. AT
THIS TIME...THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM. IT WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED AS THE IMPACTS FROM THE
SYSTEM COULD VARY GREATLY DEPENDING UPON THE TRACK.

HURRICANE EARL SHOULD PULL OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WITH
WESTERLY FLOW DRYING THINGS OUT. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE WITH THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA SUN-MON.

Moorehead forecast office Home:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/mhx/

Great info, even though you mispelled Morehead!

Stay east, Earl, stay east!

[KWT]

It would interesting if Earl managed to go through an entire EWRC and never weaken.

Not easy to know whether its even going through a EWRC or just whether its having something that is causing its presentation to change. The pressure going up now to 941mbs and the suggestion of a possible double eyewall does hint at it though. A Microwave scan of the system will let us know for sure though.

[ncweatherwizard]

I do tend to be conservative when thinking about watches and warnings, but I feel it would be unwise if NHC came out with a Hurricane Watch over a large area right now. I would use the higher than average confidence in this forecast track and try not to put up a false alert for too many folks (granted, it is only a Watch). If you issue a Hurricane Watch too far north where there is a larger population (i.e. southeastern VA), then media coverage will become unreasonable. Given the confidence in the forecast track, a Hurricane Watch is reasonable for just the NC capes--maybe just from Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet for now. They can always extend it early tomorrow morning if necessary when or before they issue Tropical Storm Warnings. They can issue a Tropical Storm Watch for half the East Coast for all I care though because it will likely verify (yes, it's premature right now for SNE since it's over 3 days out).

[afswo]

Looking at the map and interpolating, Cape Cod would be very close to a direct hit.

Wow. Getting awfully close to NYC / Long Island too. I wonder when NYC was last in the cone of a hurricane?

Hanna in 2008, but she was a tropical storm by that point.

[UpTheCreek]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Based on the projected track, here is what I would personally do:

Hurricane Watch - New River Inlet, NC to Cape Charles Light, VA (to cover the Outer Banks and Hampton Roads) including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

Tropical Storm Watch - Little River Inlet, SC (at NC line) to New River Inlet, NC

Watches for the lower Chesapeake/lower Potomac (upper Chesapeake/upper Potomac shouldn't be needed unless the storm goes farther west), the Delmarva and farther north would come later.

I'll bet you're spot on.

[CrazyC83]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Based on the projected track, here is what I would personally do:

Hurricane Watch - New River Inlet, NC to Cape Charles Light, VA (to cover the Outer Banks and Hampton Roads) including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

Tropical Storm Watch - Little River Inlet, SC (at NC line) to New River Inlet, NC

Watches for the lower Chesapeake/lower Potomac (upper Chesapeake/upper Potomac shouldn't be needed unless the storm goes farther west), the Delmarva and farther north would come later.

I'll bet you're spot on.

Probably the Delmarva and lower Chesapeake will only require a Tropical Storm Watch barring a large westerly shift (i.e. a landfalling storm), that would likely come tomorrow morning. If the track stays well to the east, a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch may be all that is ultimately needed, but it might be best to stay on the safe side at least for now.

[KWT]

I agree with ncweatherwizard, I wouldn't go overly mad on the watches just yet given they can be easily extended, and besides a further west track would probably mean a slightly slower system anyway so its not a huge deal to wait just a touch longer before putting out more expansive watches away from the Capes.

[wxman57]

According to the 11:00 advisory NHC says a hurricane watch may be posted for portions of the Mid-Atlantic later today. Any ideas where and when? I'm in Va Beach.

I'm not a professional, but my understanding is that watches would be issued for areas in the 3-day NHC cone. You can find that here:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... e#contents

That's definitely not the case. Cone size and watch areas bear no relation. A hurricane's impact can extend far outside the cone, and the tropical storm conditions often do extend well outside the cone. And that's even if the center of the hurricane follows the exact forecast path down the middle of the error cone. With Ike, hurricane force winds extended outside the cone from a couple of days before landfall.

Watches are now issued when the impact of tropical storm force winds is expected within 48 hours. Since that won't occur until Thursday night or early Friday morning, the watches will be issued tomorrow, probably in the morning.

[Javlin]

I would agree NCweatherwizard the media is just waiting to pounce on this already.The models are in good agreement to keep it for the most part offshore.

[coriolis]

I suppose that the Bay of Fundy would concentrate a storm surge like it concentrates the tides.

[edgeblade]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Based on the projected track, here is what I would personally do:

Hurricane Watch - New River Inlet, NC to Cape Charles Light, VA (to cover the Outer Banks and Hampton Roads) including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

Tropical Storm Watch - Little River Inlet, SC (at NC line) to New River Inlet, NC

Watches for the lower Chesapeake/lower Potomac (upper Chesapeake/upper Potomac shouldn't be needed unless the storm goes farther west), the Delmarva and farther north would come later.

I'll bet you're spot on.

I'm inclined to agree with this, unfortunately for those of us in these areas, like myself. This all feels very reminiscent of the ominous feeling I had with Isabel looming back in 2003...

[ncweatherwizard]

I would agree NCweatherwizard the media is just waiting to pounce on this already.The models are in good agreement to keep it for the most part offshore.

Talking to folks in the Hampton Roads region, it seems like the local news media hasn't yet gone crazy. So kudos to them there. I just don't want them to have an excuse to overexpose the threat until necessary because people do get tired of hearing it and some will grow complacent if they perceive a false alarm.

[KBBOCA]

That's definitely not the case. Cone size and watch areas bear no relation. A hurricane's impact can extend far outside the cone, and the tropical storm conditions often do extend well outside the cone.

Thanks for correcting me Wxman. What you wrote occurred to me a few minutes after I posted, as, just looking at the current tracking map, there are warnings up for some of the Islands (Turks/Caicos and parts of the Bahamas??) even though they're NOT in the cone. My comment was definitely stupid as anyone could see!!!