ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[Danny MD]

Yes what if this trough is very weak, or late resulting in not doing what it is suppose to do?

What I am asking here is what is the possibility of a significant shift west. So much so that say it makes landfall 30 miles North of Wilmington, and then cross over the chesapeake bay then going through delaware resulting in DC and Phily getting tropical storm winds or greater then followed by NYC?

^ Would that be a 0% chance?

Sorry for so many questions, but is it *possible* for the megalopolis to all get slammed by this?

[TheBurn]

[ncweatherwizard]

Yes what if this trough is very weak, or late resulting in not doing what it is suppose to do?

What I am asking here is what is the possibility of a significant shift west. So much so that say it makes landfall 30 miles North of Wilmington, and then cross over the chesapeake bay then going through delaware resulting in DC and Phily getting tropical storm winds or greater then followed by NYC?

^ Would that be a 0% chance?

Sorry for so many questions, but is it *possible* for the megapolis to all get slammed by this?

Like 0.1% chance?

The models are really good at forecasting the general nature of the flow higher in the atmosphere (say a few miles off the ground). Energy will propagate eastward through the middle and upper atmosphere, and the trough will materialize. Where it will and exactly how strong it will be gives us part of the uncertainty in how close Earl will come to the East Coast.

[UpTheCreek]

Yes what if this trough is very weak, or late resulting in not doing what it is suppose to do?

What I am asking here is what is the possibility of a significant shift west. So much so that say it makes landfall 30 miles North of Wilmington, and then cross over the chesapeake bay then going through delaware resulting in DC and Phily getting tropical storm winds or greater then followed by NYC?

^ Would that be a 0% chance?

Sorry for so many questions, but is it *possible* for the megalopolis to all get slammed by this?

No offense intended, but do you actually expect someone here to say, with absolute certainty, that your scenario would indeed be an impossibility with a 0% chance? That's ridiculous and you already know it's possible, it's mother nature, anything is possible. Low percentage, probably. Unlikely? Probably. But certainly not impossible!

[plasticup]

i think they are keeping it low key due to the last big holiday weekend of the summer...we have hotels here complaining that they are empy this weekend

Regardless of whether the storm makes landfall, this weekend won't be the Labor Day beach vacation that people had hoped for.

[SoupBone]

Anyone want to take a shot in the dark for possible conditions at Myrtle beach this weekend?

[Cyclone1]

Yes what if this trough is very weak, or late resulting in not doing what it is suppose to do?

What I am asking here is what is the possibility of a significant shift west. So much so that say it makes landfall 30 miles North of Wilmington, and then cross over the chesapeake bay then going through delaware resulting in DC and Phily getting tropical storm winds or greater then followed by NYC?

^ Would that be a 0% chance?

Sorry for so many questions, but is it *possible* for the megalopolis to all get slammed by this?

No offense intended, but do you actually expect someone here to say, with absolute certainty, that your scenario would indeed be an impossibility with a 0% chance? That's ridiculous and you already know it's possible, it's mother nature, anything is possible. Low percentage, probably. Unlikely? Probably. But certainly not impossible!

The chance is so close to 0% that might as well be 0. So, I'll say it.

Impossible.

[sandyb]

Yes what if this trough is very weak, or late resulting in not doing what it is suppose to do?

What I am asking here is what is the possibility of a significant shift west. So much so that say it makes landfall 30 miles North of Wilmington, and then cross over the chesapeake bay then going through delaware resulting in DC and Phily getting tropical storm winds or greater then followed by NYC?

^ Would that be a 0% chance?

Sorry for so many questions, but is it *possible* for the megalopolis to all get slammed by this?

No offense intended, but do you actually expect someone here to say, with absolute certainty, that your scenario would indeed be an impossibility with a 0% chance? That's ridiculous and you already know it's possible, it's mother nature, anything is possible. Low percentage, probably. Unlikely? Probably. But certainly not impossible!

The chance is so close to 0% that might as well be 0. So, I'll say it.

Impossible.

glad you are saying 0% casue that would put me right in the middle of it as it stands now it should maybe give us ts winds where i am according to our local weather but if it was to come in just north of wilmington the we would get the worst of it had to many of those happen here

[UpTheCreek]

Yes what if this trough is very weak, or late resulting in not doing what it is suppose to do?

What I am asking here is what is the possibility of a significant shift west. So much so that say it makes landfall 30 miles North of Wilmington, and then cross over the chesapeake bay then going through delaware resulting in DC and Phily getting tropical storm winds or greater then followed by NYC?

^ Would that be a 0% chance?

Sorry for so many questions, but is it *possible* for the megalopolis to all get slammed by this?

No offense intended, but do you actually expect someone here to say, with absolute certainty, that your scenario would indeed be an impossibility with a 0% chance? That's ridiculous and you already know it's possible, it's mother nature, anything is possible. Low percentage, probably. Unlikely? Probably. But certainly not impossible!

The chance is so close to 0% that might as well be 0. So, I'll say it.

Impossible.

Wait a cotton pickin' minute here! Which WILMINGTON??? lol Wouldn't take much of shift westward to landfall in Wilmington, NC!

[wxman57]

I happen to think that Earl could very easily track right over Wilmington, NC and right up along the East U.S. Coast, producing hurricane conditions from NC to Cape Cod. All it would take is a difference in timing of the approaching trof by a few hours or a faster than projected forward speed by Earl over the next day or two.

Now that's not my current forecast, as I think Earl may pass within 75 miles of Cape Hatteras but remain offshore. But I'd be preparing for a hurricane and hoping for the best if I lived along the East Coast.

P.S. Did you mean Wilmington, DE? There are a lot of Wilmingtons over in that area. But even Wilmington, DE could see hurricane-force wind if Earl tracks over eastern NC/VA.

[UpTheCreek]

I'm just funnin'........anything is possible, but I agree, that ain't gonna happen. At least I hope not!

[Danny MD]

Thanks all. And wow that would be terrible if that happened wx had no idea an error in timing could result in that becoming a not so unlikely scenario.

[Danny MD]

Sorry should of Clarified, was refering to Wilmington NC. But I suppose if a far west track was taken strong winds in the delaware wilmington could be bad too!

[plasticup]

All it would take is a difference in timing of the approaching trof by a few hours

That little? I didn't realize the system was that sensitive.

[RL3AO]

All it would take is a difference in timing of the approaching trof by a few hours

That little? I didn't realize the system was that sensitive.

We're talking about a system thats near Vancouver right now. If its a few hours slower or Earl is a few hours faster, the greater risk it has to hit the Outer Banks.

[dixiebreeze]

Does anyone know why there are no tropical forecast points on the IR floater for Earl now.

[UpTheCreek]

Those are the very reasons why I am in so much awe of the forecasters......so many variables to contend with.

[MHurricanes]

I do tend to be conservative when thinking about watches and warnings, but I feel it would be unwise if NHC came out with a Hurricane Watch over a large area right now. I would use the higher than average confidence in this forecast track and try not to put up a false alert for too many folks (granted, it is only a Watch). If you issue a Hurricane Watch too far north where there is a larger population (i.e. southeastern VA), then media coverage will become unreasonable. Given the confidence in the forecast track, a Hurricane Watch is reasonable for just the NC capes--maybe just from Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet for now. They can always extend it early tomorrow morning if necessary when or before they issue Tropical Storm Warnings. They can issue a Tropical Storm Watch for half the East Coast for all I care though because it will likely verify (yes, it's premature right now for SNE since it's over 3 days out).

You make some very good points. By late tomorrow, I'm sure the NHC will have a much better feel for how close Earl will come to skirting the coast or possibly making landfall. As others have discussed over the past 24 hours, just a slight jog to the west could mean the difference between windy weather and high surf and destructive hurricane force winds and a devastating storm surge.

- MHurricanes

[dixiebreeze]

Buoy 41046 East Bahamas:

Conditions at 41046 as of
(12:50 pm EDT)

Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 50 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 25.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 31.1 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 15.4 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 13 sec
Average Period (APD): 7.9 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ESE ( 115 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.81 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.8 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 85.3 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 71.4 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 87.6 °F
Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure

[HURAKAN]

the western portion of the cone would be horrible