ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[hurricanefloyd5]

BREAKING NEWS a VOL. RELOCATION HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTH PADRA ISLAND IN TEXAS


Statement as of 11:42 am CDT on June 28, 2010

... Action to take when a tropical storm or Hurricane Watch is
issued...

A tropical storm watch is issued for an area when tropical storm
conditions are a possible threat within 48 hours. Winds of 39 to 73
mph are associated with tropical storms.

A Hurricane Watch is issued for an area when hurricane conditions are
a possible threat within 48 hours. Hurricanes produce winds of 74
mph and higher.

When a watch is issued for your area... you should:

A. Monitor storm reports on radio and/or television.
B. Refill prescriptions.
C. Make arrangements for all pets if you are considering moving to a
shelter as they will not be allowed to accompany you.
D. Consider leaving the area. If evacuation is recommended... traffic
on limited evacuation routes will cause long delays. It is better
to leave early.
E. Check the following supplies:
1. Have a battery operated radio with plenty of spare batteries
as electricity could be off for several days.
2. Have a flashlight with spare batteries.
3. Fill the gasoline tank on your vehicles. Gas will not be
available if electric power is out.
4. Stock up on canned and non-perishable foods... enough for
several days. You may not be able to Cook or refrigerate other
foods.
5. Fill the bathtub and other containers with water. Water
supplies may be affected by flooding and/or power outage.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or other weather news sources for
the latest information on Tropical Storm Alex.

[BigA]

IMHO Alex looks a bit better (at least on visible) than he did 2 hours ago.

[CrazyC83]

I'd argue it has weakened a bit the last 6 hours to 45 kt, but I doubt the NHC would put that in an advisory if it goes against trends.

How did you arrive at that wind speed? Did you take a measurement inside the storm?

Last passes had flight-level winds of 51 kt (supports an intensity of 40 kt) and an SFMR of 48 kt, so 45 would be a blend of the values.

[South Texas Storms]

is alex moving right now? or is he stationary?

[SunnyThoughts]

[americanre1]

With that picture, it definitely looks like the two convergence zones are combining and the center is relocating to the due North. around 22N and 91N

[TeamPlayersBlue]

With that picture, it definitely looks like the two convergence zones are combining and the center is relocating to the due North. around 22N and 91N

With that picture it absolutely looks like the center is relocating. Loop? I am not very resourceful when it comes to loops of these storms

[tolakram]

[South Texas Storms]

is alex moving right now or is he stationary? i cant tell...

[Air Force Met]

With that picture, it definitely looks like the two convergence zones are combining and the center is relocating to the due North. around 22N and 91N

Storms with centers as tightly wound as Alex do not relocate. They may move towards the convection...but they won't relocate/reform under it.

[KWT]

Nah thats just banding occuring, the LLC is pretty strong, certainly strong enough not to relocate that far north anyway!

To be honest I don't see much that supports above 45kts as Crazy said right now but there ya go.

[americanre1]

So AFM, is that what we are seeing, the center moving towards the center of those two bursts?

[thetruesms]

With that picture, it definitely looks like the two convergence zones are combining and the center is relocating to the due North. around 22N and 91N

Storms with centers as tightly wound as Alex do not relocate. They may move towards the convection...but they won't relocate/reform under it.

this - they also do not simply walk into Mordor

However, it may pay to watch the evolution of that convection to see how it may influence the motion of our well-established center.

[Air Force Met]

is alex moving right now or is he stationary? i cant tell...

About as close to stationary as you can get...which is why the models have shifted left.

[Air Force Met]

So AFM, is that what we are seeing, the center moving towards the center of those two bursts?

Drifting...very slowly.

[South Texas Storms]

is alex moving right now or is he stationary? i cant tell...

About as close to stationary as you can get...which is why the models have shifted left.

when do you think he will start the NNW motion again?

[Weatherfreak000]

If Alex stays stationary there for a long time it could make forecasting rather problematic.

[Frank2]

Moist air to the east over land, dry air to the west over water (lol):

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg

[imetrice]

Really this near stationary movement has me worried. It gives Alex time to get it's act together and strengthen even before it heads off towards land. Almost like "ready, set, go!" I worry about whoever gets this storm.

[Nederlander]

If Alex stays stationary there for a long time it could make forecasting rather problematic.

I think the longer he stays a this pace, the farther south the landfall will be.. unless that ridge doesnt build back strong, then he will spend lots of time over the gulf before steering currents pick up again..