ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[vbhoutex]

<waiting for a pro met to counter some of this useless speculation>

You may consider it useless speculation. We call it discussion of the numerous possibilities of what Earl may do.

[Air Force Met]

Is Earl falling apart? My "family member" well call him Jo, (I dont want him to get in trouble for saying anything" is in the military, and they had a briefing just now, they think that Earl is falling from a 4 to most likely a 3 or even mayb 2 by late tonite early morning. They said he is churning more N than predicted so soon and VA is out of the danger zone. "If he stays on this path" we may see a little wind nothing bad and bad rip currents thats it. I will leave it at that if anyone would like to add...

"Jo" doesn't know what he is talking about!

I concur. I am in the military...and "Jo" don't know jack. Will the intensity fluctuate? Perhaps. Moving more N than predicted? Not even close. Not sure who "Jo" is listening to...but 9 times out of 10...(10 out of 10 if they are Army)...they don't get their info from the SWO (Staff Weather Officer)...they get it off of some TV news report...then they mis-remember it...then they brief "Jo" incorrectly.

I deal with it all the time.

[Raebie]

<waiting for a pro met to counter some of this useless speculation>

You may consider it useless speculation. We call it discussion of the numerous possibilities of what Earl may do.

I was referring to this.

"Is Earl falling apart? My "family member" well call him Jo, (I dont want him to get in trouble for saying anything" is in the military, and they had a briefing just now, they think that Earl is falling from a 4 to most likely a 3 or even mayb 2 by late tonite early morning. They said he is churning more N than predicted so soon and VA is out of the danger zone. "If he stays on this path" we may see a little wind nothing bad and bad rip currents thats it."

[SoupBone]

<waiting for a pro met to counter some of this useless speculation>

You may consider it useless speculation. We call it discussion of the numerous possibilities of what Earl may do.

Thank you. Isn't that what DISCUSSION is all about? If we weren't allowed to speak out with our ideas the board would be a ghost town. Thank you for allowing us to voice our opinions (even though some people would rather that not happen).

[Raebie]

Discussion and passing along misinformation are 2 completely different things.

[Brent]

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES FROM NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING
THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHEASTWARD TO SURF CITY.

[Julanne]

OH NO. It's heading right for us as a major hurricane? Us being Southeastern Massachusetts

[thetruesms]

"Jo" doesn't know what he is talking about!

u do see the upper level feature pinching off right next to earl...right....well earl can't go thru it so he will need to go north around it and then this should be enough to push him further off the e coast...right......and models don't pick up on these things correct? any promets that could address this very soon would be a huge help right now.

There is indeed an upper trough there, and is contributing some shear that's affecting Earl's satellite presentation. As mentioned in the latest NHC discussion, this is expected to move off and become less of a factor for Earl. You are right that models don't always handle these things well over the oceanic data void, but it's kind of obvious just from the WV imagery who's going to win this battle, even if it doesn't clear out. It's like the ULL-tropical cyclone battles of earlier this season, but in reverse

[HurrMark]

OH NO. It's heading right for us as a major hurricane? Us being Southeastern Massachusetts

The track still takes it a bit offshore MA, although it is close enough to bear watching and be ready. It probably won't be a major hurricane at its closest approach...maybe a cat 1 or 2...although there is still some uncertainty. Best advice is to be vigilant but don't panic.

[Brent]

[CronkPSU]

when was the last time Mass and NE experienced 90 MPH winds? I ask because of the tree damage that comes when an area hasn't been hit in a while, I know central florida got devastated because we hadn't had a storm in 20 plus year with over hurricane force winds and most of the damages came from trees and big old branches falling...the storms afterwards did more roof damage caused they stayed a while but overall all the old trees had already been knocked down

[SunnyThoughts]

[CronkPSU]

movement NW at 14 mph...starting to turn already?

[KWT]

NW motion was expected at this time, it pretty much is running right along the NHC path right now, still obviously going to be a very close call though either way still...for possibly a good part of the east coast.

[Julanne]

when was the last time Mass and NE experienced 90 MPH winds? I ask because of the tree damage that comes when an area hasn't been hit in a while, I know central florida got devastated because we hadn't had a storm in 20 plus year with over hurricane force winds and most of the damages came from trees and big old branches falling...the storms afterwards did more roof damage caused they stayed a while but overall all the old trees had already been knocked down

I think it was 1991 with Hurricane Bob which hit as a Cat 2. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong....We have massive old oak trees all around my house

[cpdaman]

Is Earl falling apart? My "family member" well call him Jo, (I dont want him to get in trouble for saying anything" is in the military, and they had a briefing just now, they think that Earl is falling from a 4 to most likely a 3 or even mayb 2 by late tonite early morning. They said he is churning more N than predicted so soon and VA is out of the danger zone. "If he stays on this path" we may see a little wind nothing bad and bad rip currents thats it. I will leave it at that if anyone would like to add...

"Jo" doesn't know what he is talking about!

I concur. I am in the military...and "Jo" don't know jack. Will the intensity fluctuate? Perhaps. Moving more N than predicted? Not even close. Not sure who "Jo" is listening to...but 9 times out of 10...(10 out of 10 if they are Army)...they don't get their info from the SWO (Staff Weather Officer)...they get it off of some TV news report...then they mis-remember it...then they brief "Jo" incorrectly.

I deal with it all the time.

AFM....nobody is saying it HAS moved more N than forecast....we are saying won't the Upper level trough.....1. shear this with the potential to weaken it more than forecast...2 put a greater chance of a more northerly track beginning shortly as it can't bump thru this thing. If you were referring to these points than i apologize for redundancy....so....do you not think the ULL will bump earl further north than forecast than the short (12-18 hour time frame)

[dixiebreeze]

Anyone recall if Earl even remotely resembles Hugo?

[Hurritrax]

Mandatory evacuation for all residents and visitors on Ocracoke Island on the Outer Banks has been ordered and will commence tommorrow morning at 5:00 AM...it may take 14-20 hours to get everyone off the island by ferry. Expecting major overwash on Highway 12 from Kitty Hawk through Hatteras Island, with the worse occurring Thursday night through Friday morning. High tide occurs at 2:30 AM Friday. No evacuations ordered yet for Hatteras Island north to Duck, and in my opinion, unless something drastic happens with the forecast track, there probably will not be any mandatory orders for this area.

[CrazyC83]

when was the last time Mass and NE experienced 90 MPH winds? I ask because of the tree damage that comes when an area hasn't been hit in a while, I know central florida got devastated because we hadn't had a storm in 20 plus year with over hurricane force winds and most of the damages came from trees and big old branches falling...the storms afterwards did more roof damage caused they stayed a while but overall all the old trees had already been knocked down

Last time hurricane conditions took place in New England was with Hurricane Bob in 1991 I believe.

[lester]

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES FROM NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.