ATL : INVEST 90L

[JonathanBelles]

Thanks for bringing that to my attention HURAKAN. This looks like a relocation to the west of the old low. The NASA GHCC loop shows it very well. I did not expect this at all. Should be quite close to the Gulf Stream now. Tonight and tomorrow may be very interesting. I wish we had visible loops to examine.

[xironman]

There is some warm water out there, I wish station 41002 was operational.

Code: Select all

ID      T1 TIME    LAT     LON DIST HDG WDIR  WSPD   GST  WVHT   DPD   APD MWD   PRES  PTDY  ATMP  WTMP 
           (GMT)                 nm  °T   °T   kts   kts    ft   sec   sec  °T     in    in    °F    °F 
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIP     S 0600  33.20  -75.80   56 343   70  18.1     -     -     -     -   -  29.80 +0.00  73.4  80.6 

[KWT]

Very interesting looking system this morning it has to be said, the gulf stream has once again done the trick and lapse rates have increased again. I'd certainly say risk has increased now upto 40-50% but despite greater convection the overall state of the system remains the same as always, with only a small quadrant of the overall low region having convection.

Still can't rule out Alex yet given that bursting occuring...will be a short lived system.

[xironman]

The super dry air that has been inhibiting this system from the start has started to wash out http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html. May have a twenty hour window to do something before the front shoves it out.

[brunota2003]

I think it is buoy 41003 (off the SE NC coast) is reading a pressure of 29.78 in (1008 millibars) and falling, with sustained winds of 27 knots, gusting to 31 knots.

[tolakram]

So which model had this moving toward Georgia?



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Good write up over at wunderground: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Weathe ... trynum=364

[HURAKAN]

the window is closing

[HURAKAN]

Satellite + Radar

[HURAKAN]

Finally, we seem to have a well-defined center of circulation

Loop - http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=2

The best it has ever looked

[KWT]

Yeah itn does look better npw in terms of the circulation. I'd still want to see better convection closer to the systems center but I suppose there is an outside chance the NHC decide to go subtropical with this one soon, but I'd still think not...

[Evil Jeremy]

I think its more likely that this will get a post season upgrade rather than one now, if any classification at all.

[tolakram]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=18

It appears the eastward movement has begun.

[HURAKAN]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=30&lon=-65&info=vis&zoom=2&width=3000&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=18

It appears the eastward movement has begun.

Yes, very slowly. Convection continues to build, although not much to fight for classification at this point, but lets see what it does in the next 24 hours. Certainly the best it has ever looked and the most organized it has ever been.

[HURAKAN]

GFS shear forecast:

Code: Select all

*   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *      GOES DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      OHC  DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      INVEST  AL902010  05/26/10  12 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
SHEAR (KT)        13    14    19    17    13    32    32    51    56    72    66    53    57


time is definitely running out

[HURAKAN]

12z

[HURAKAN]

we've some convergence

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Aquawind]

Better than ever alright.. a single center and some displaced convection looks much more organized. Persistant deep convection over a single LLC is required though.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[wxman57]

Chances of it getting named are approaching zero now. Bones is approaching the microphone.