ARABIAN SEA - DEEP DEPRESSION (03A)

[HURAKAN]

Hi Hurakan,
Photobucket is jammed again, so I can't show the image but maybe you can. It's the 37GHz V image from the Navy site - in this case the TMI was the best one available. 37GHz picks up the lower levels much better than 85-91GHz, which covers the middle levels better. 85-91GHz has too much signal attenuation from ice crystals and pellets above the liquid layer, but 37GHz gets through. Because of this, you can get a better fix on the real eye position and the lower level circulation. It goes with the 85GHz Meteo-7 you just posted. If you look at them together you can see the difference. Always try to use the 37GHz if you can get it to show the truer surface position.

P.S. I took the link to it out of here because PHP wasn't parsing it right. If you want the link, email me.

[KWT]

Track would mean a landfall probably is to be expected in the next 6-9hrs unless we see a sudden recurve occur.

Hopefully this storm decides to rapidly weaken and take in some stable air...

[HurricaneBill]

Masirah Airport sustained at 74 mph on the latest obs.

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/fin ... ct=WEATHER

The pressure dropped as low as 29.05in (984mb) but has since risen.

Around this time of year, Masirah averages about 0.03in of rain. With Phet, Masirah has received 4.33in!

[HURAKAN]

Landfall

[KWT]

Wow well that was a bit quicker then I thought, but yeah the structure looks alot worse now which is what you'd expect with a system making landfall in a region that is very dry and has lots of stable air aloft.

[srainhoutx]

Wow well that was a bit quicker then I thought, but yeah the structure looks alot worse now which is what you'd expect with a system making landfall in a region that is very dry and has lots of stable air aloft.

Thanks to one persistant trough.

[ozonepete]

Hi Hurakan,
Photobucket is jammed again, so I can't show the image but maybe you can. It's the 37GHz V image from the Navy site - in this case the TMI was the best one available. 37GHz picks up the lower levels much better than 85-91GHz, which covers the middle levels better. 85-91GHz has too much signal attenuation from ice crystals and pellets above the liquid layer, but 37GHz gets through. Because of this, you can get a better fix on the real eye position and the lower level circulation. It goes with the 85GHz Meteo-7 you just posted. If you look at them together you can see the difference. Always try to use the 37GHz if you can get it to show the truer surface position.

P.S. I took the link to it out of here because PHP wasn't parsing it right. If you want the link, email me.

Hey Hurakan, Thanks you are the best. But although you are close, no cigar. That one is the 37GHz COLOR. It's the next button over to the right: 37GHz V. go down in that column to the green or yellow button in the TMI row. That has a really good eye fix. I'm sorry but I still can't get in to photobucket.

[HURAKAN]

This one?

[ozonepete]

Yay, that's it. That's the 37GHz image, which gives a much truer fix on the eye. That 37GHz frequency allows the signal to pick up returns from the rain layer under the solid hydrometeors above, so that it gives a much better picture of the lower levels. The 85, 87 or 91GHz images are giving a representation of the middle layers. There is too much signal attenuation among ice crystals mixed with water just below the mid-levels and just above the all rain layer at lower levels. There is also a problem due to parallax error with 85-91GHz images that shows the wrong position of the eye. This parallax error is much lower on the 37GHz analysis.

If you want a good fix on the eye from scatterometer images, always try to get that one.

BTW, it shows the eye was closer to the coast at 1714Z than we thought by looking at 85-91GHz returns. It also shows the eye was closed at lower levels, even though it's been open higher up at mid-levels.

Thanks, Hurakan. You rock.

[ozonepete]

I'm going to use my own site to load images here from now on. Much easier. I'll test it out in a few minutes.

Here they come:





The second image, the 37GHz, has a much better fix on the surface/lower level position of the eye.

[HURAKAN]

Appears to be turning to the NNE or NE

[ozonepete]

Yeah. It may parallel the coast for the next few hours...

[shah8]

No, the eye is definitly fully inland, with the very center being at the same latitude as the tip of Masiryah Island.

[HURAKAN]

No, the eye is definitly fully inland, with the very center being at the same latitude as the tip of Masiryah Island.

Loop - http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 311900.GIF

Definitely not fully inland

[shah8]

Okay, I see the motion, but I don't think it contradicts what I said. I think it's just getting harder to see where the eye is, but my contention is that the eastern eyewall is ashore or bulging just a bit out.

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... B_PROD=1km

this is well inland now, though it may be back over the water in a few hours

will still likely see a borderline TS/cane in Karachi, which will cause significant problems

[HURAKAN]

Beautiful pic

[CrazyC83]

This is going to be a super-soaker for sure, and a desert cannot absorb rain very well.

As for the intensity, it is hard to say. It likely rapidly intensified on Tuesday into Wednesday morning, then peaked around 02/1200Z before rapidly weakening. My guess is that it bottomed out around 75 kt, then restrengthened some to Cat 2 intensity (made landfall at about 03/2130Z at 90 kt I would guess). I'd say it has weakened since, and my current intensity guess is 80 kt.

If I were to estimate the best track intensities - TOTALLY UNOFFICIAL - they would be:

31
1200 - 14.9N 64.0E - 30 kt - 1003mb
1800 - 15.3N 63.9E - 35 kt - 1001mb
01
0000 - 15.8N 63.5E - 45 kt - 995mb
0600 - 16.4N 62.8E - 55 kt - 988mb
1200 - 16.8N 62.2E - 60 kt - 984mb
1800 - 17.1N 61.5E - 70 kt - 978mb
02
0000 - 17.5N 61.0E - 95 kt - 957mb
0600 - 17.7N 60.6E - 115 kt - 941mb
1200 - 18.2N 60.0E - 120 kt - 937mb
1800 - 18.5N 59.6E - 95 kt - 954mb
03
0000 - 18.7N 59.4E - 75 kt - 974mb
0600 - 19.1N 59.4E - 80 kt - 971mb
1200 - 19.9N 59.4E - 80 kt - 970mb
1800 - 20.8N 59.2E - 85 kt - 967mb
04
0000 - 21.2N 59.0E - 80 kt - 973mb

[CrazyC83]

Even if the intensity was 90 kt, I believe this is the strongest storm ever to hit Oman. Certainly if 105 kt as JTWC suggests, it was the strongest.

[HurricaneBill]

Even if the intensity was 90 kt, I believe this is the strongest storm ever to hit Oman. Certainly if 105 kt as JTWC suggests, it was the strongest.

The Masirah Cyclone in 1977 had sustained winds of 90KT at landfall.