ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[Air Force Met]

there's one model that has shifted and puts North Carolina in line for a direct hit.
http://i.imwx.com/images/sat/regions/spec_sat10_600_en.jpg

But it's definitely an outlier. What model is that? NOGAPS?

It's the GFNI. It's the interprolated model from the GFDN...which is the NOGAPS version of the GFDL.

[artist]

there's one model that has shifted and puts North Carolina in line for a direct hit.

Oh God..... TWC.

People are forgetting that Knabb from the National Hurricane Center joined TWC this year.

[cpdaman]

for SNE model consensus takes this right over the Bench mark (i.e 40N/ 70W)....which is a good distance off shore...unless u live on nantucket

[Air Force Met]

Oh God..... TWC.

No need to get mad at TWC...the GFDI is a model that is plotted on numerous sites.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_early1.png

[artist]

there's one model that has shifted and puts North Carolina in line for a direct hit.
http://i.imwx.com/images/sat/regions/spec_sat10_600_en.jpg

But it's definitely an outlier. What model is that? NOGAPS?

It's the GFNI. It's the interprolated model from the GFDN...which is the NOGAPS version of the GFDL.

does that mean it has the same reliability as the NOGAPS?

[SunnyThoughts]

Latest

[Air Force Met]

does that mean it has the same reliability as the NOGAPS?

Yes...kinda...

[webke]

does that mean it has the same reliability as the NOGAPS?

Yes...kinda...

What do you mean by kinda?

[ncweatherwizard]

Mandatory evacuation for all residents and visitors on Ocracoke Island on the Outer Banks has been ordered and will commence tommorrow morning at 5:00 AM...it may take 14-20 hours to get everyone off the island by ferry. Expecting major overwash on Highway 12 from Kitty Hawk through Hatteras Island, with the worse occurring Thursday night through Friday morning. High tide occurs at 2:30 AM Friday. No evacuations ordered yet for Hatteras Island north to Duck, and in my opinion, unless something drastic happens with the forecast track, there probably will not be any mandatory orders for this area.

Good call since it's impossible to access Ocracoke once any storm gets close. Overall, I'm pleased with the 5PM NHC Watches/Warnings. No metropolis areas yet included, yet plenty of room given for a westward shift in track or expansion of the 64kt wind field. Plenty of time to adjust.

[shah8]

Yeah, that really was the worst kind of geeky equivocation in a non-geek forum, wasn't it?

[Tstormwatcher]

We're now under a hurricane watch, but I doubt my town will get anything more that light tropical storm winds, if that. However, being on the water, surge could be a major issue.

Just learned this myself. I think it all depends on how close to the coast earl gets as to what we will get. Higher water will happen no matter how close it gets.

[SCHawkFan]

Joe Bastardi joining Sean Hannity on the radio in one minute.

What he said - 50-100 miles off OBX and Cape Cod. If the track changes, it will move a little west. He does not think it will significantly impact all of the east coast north of OBX. Maybe some good wind over the eastern end of Long Island. His forecast is inline with the NHC, et al.

[UpTheCreek]

I think the main difference between a watch and a warning is the time frame in which the hurricane conditions will occur. I'd say it's likely that your hurricane watch will be converted to a warning within the next day or two provided that there isnt a significant track shift to the east. Glad you're prepared and watching this, hopefully it doesnt get too bad for you. In any case, we will look forward to you posting observations from the area Stay safe!

I had to go review those definitions again, it's been so long since we've had a decent storm here....a la Isabel. After further review, you are absolutely KIND of correct!

A watch is "possible" and within 48 hours. A warning is "expected" and within 36 hours. But it makes no nevermind, I know what you mean.

Hurricane Warning:
An announcement that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are expected somewhere within the specified coastal area. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the hurricane warning is issued 36 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds.


Hurricane Watch:
An announcement that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are possible within the specified coastal area. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the hurricane watch is issued 48 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds.


Thanks for the well wishes, much appreciated. I'll keep posting observations as long as we have a connection!

[UpTheCreek]

We're now under a hurricane watch, but I doubt my town will get anything more that light tropical storm winds, if that. However, being on the water, surge could be a major issue.

Just learned this myself. I think it all depends on how close to the coast earl gets as to what we will get. Higher water will happen no matter how close it gets.

I agree. While I am being vigilant, I think our chances of something very strong are fairly low. Anything can happen and preparing for the worst case scenario!

[UpTheCreek]

Joe Bastardi joining Sean Hannity on the radio in one minute.

What he said - 50-100 miles off OBX and Cape Cod. If the track changes, it will move a little west. He does not think it will significantly impact all of the east coast north of OBX. Maybe some good wind over the eastern end of Long Island. His forecast is inline with the NHC, et al.

Hope Joe is right and I'm sorry for anything I ever said about him in the past! If we get hammered, all bets are off!

[dixiebreeze]

Looks like Earl's western boundaries are improving quite a lot.

[abajan]

Anyone recall if Earl even remotely resembles Hugo?

I guess not!
That picture certainly spoke 1000 words. Hugo was a monster.

[thetruesms]

does that mean it has the same reliability as the NOGAPS?

Yes...kinda...

What do you mean by kinda?

NOGAPS provides the initial conditions for the model, and since the GFDL is a regional model, it also needs a global to supply it boundary conditions, which the GFDN would also get from NOGAPS. So, while the initial data and the general hemispheric flow come from NOGAPS with the same reliability, everything that happens within the model's domain comes from the regional model's physics.

[CronkPSU]

Anyone recall if Earl even remotely resembles Hugo?

I guess not!
That picture certainly spoke 1000 words. Hugo was a monster.

wait and see what Earl look like in about 24 hours when he is done with his EWRC and around the same spot...maybe more like 20 words

[webke]

NOGAPS provides the initial conditions for the model, and since the GFDL is a regional model, it also needs a global to supply it boundary conditions, which the GFDN would also get from NOGAPS. So, while the initial data and the general hemispheric flow come from NOGAPS with the same reliability, everything that happens within the model's domain comes from the regional model's physics.

[/quote]

So if I understand you correctly if the data from the NOGAPS is incorrect the output of the GFDN will be also. The interesting thing is that the model run for the NOGAPS was in line with the GFS>