ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[bamajammer4eva]

I have placed markers where I think the center has tracked based on the loop along with the latest radar image.


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[supercane]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 05:08Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 305)
Storm Number & Year: 03L in 2010
Storm Name: Bonnie (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 15
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 5:00:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26°27'N 84°11'W (26.45N 84.1833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 144 miles (233 km) to the W (265°) from Fort Myers, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 797m (2,615ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 36kts (~ 41.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles) to the NE (52°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 129° at 37kts (From the SE at ~ 42.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 34 nautical miles (39 statute miles) to the NE (52°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1013mb (29.91 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 758m (2,487ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 760m (2,493ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 22°C (72°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 925mb (If this vortex is from mid 1990's or earlier 925mb might be incorrect. See note.)
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 44kts (~ 50.6mph) in the north quadrant at 1:46:40Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 24°C (75°F) which was observed 9 nautical miles to the ENE (60°) from the flight level center

[bamajammer4eva]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 05:08Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 305)
Storm Number & Year: 03L in 2010
Storm Name: Bonnie (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 44kts (~ 50.6mph) in the north quadrant at 1:46:40ZSea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 24°C (75°F) which was observed 9 nautical miles to the ENE (60°) from the flight level center

40 MPH tropical storm ??

[Sean in New Orleans]

Glad Bonnie isn't too strong...she's going to go directly over the oil. Hopefully it will give us strong enough waves to break the oil up and help it to degrade next week in the baking sun. This could be a positive if we don't have strong tidal surge. I think the storm is too weak for significant tidal surge....even if Bonnie strengthens, it's getting almost too late for much of a surge to develop in the GOM. Surge is much more difficult to develop over quick forming squalls with gale force winds.

[kjg123]

As I stated Earlier, Do not count Bonnie out yet. That large upper-level low that's been eliminating development of Bonnie, may began to help venilate this system now that the ULL has moved farther away. Bonnie may surprise a few of us!!

[Ivanhater]

[MWatkins]

Wow I am impressed, something is still working at the surface...

That burst bought Bonnie at least 12 more hours.

MW

[Ivanhater]

Wow I am impressed, something is still working at the surface...

That burst bought Bonnie at least 12 more hours.

MW

I agree, looks to be organizing for now.

[Sean in New Orleans]

It is a small storm, but, the forecast track has been consistent enough....I do believe that this system is going to go directly over my house in the next 24 to 36 hours. That's fine. I just don't want gusts strong enough to knock out my power...don't think it will happen, but, I really hope it does not go over 45MPH to 50 MPH gusts in any squalls. Hey, I'll take the rain. It's needed. Let's just keep the winds low enough that it doesn't disrupt my power. It's pretty hot in New Orleans right now.

[poof121]

Looks like the ULL stalled again...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

[Frank P]

Looking at the IR loop it Looks to me like all the storms are NW of the center and still moving wnw... but its looking better than it did early tonight.. boy, this could have been a bad deal if not for the mother of all upper lows in the GOM

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Bonnie is clearly strengthening...the ULL has moved far enough away,
appears to be ventilating Bonnie increasing divergence it seems...
certainly a strong blow up of convection...I think we will have a Tropical
Storm very shortly and possibly a 55+ mph TS by tomorrow.

As for me, I'm still getting some off and on gusty winds here on the west
coast of FL, but nothing compared to what will be in the center.

[bamajammer4eva]

Amazing how 6 days ago, there was much more convection associated with 97L and it wasnt even a tropical depression however it was storming below this convection and had this went over Haiti, they would have had serious problems. Now its TD Bonnie and theres an uproar because a line of tstorms developed lol. Crazy huh?!

The statement from the NHC that began this pain in the butt Bonnie on July 18th-though TWOs for Bonnie began issuance on July 15th for a naked swirl that was 400 miles SW of the Cape Verde Islands.

18 July 2010 - 06:34 PM

8pm TWO:

A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH SURFACE
PRESSURES HAVE FALLEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE AREA...ANY DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...HAITI...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

[Stormcenter]

Wow what a big change from just 4 hours or so ago.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[Ivanhater]

Center appears to be on the SE side of the blow up..I think landfall around Mississippi

[Ivanhater]

[Weather Watcher]

Sure seems to be getting bigger yipes!

[poof121]

Still getting sheared though...

[Frank P]

and pressure still rather high.. but the convection certainly is on the increase... must admit didn't think it would develop this much convection... need to watch this a little more closely, just planted two 16 foot palm trees yesterday, sure would hate to see them blow over..

[Stormcenter]

IMO I think it's safe to say she's on her way to being a TS again.