ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[cycloneye]

Plane finds lower pressures than this mornings mission=987.9mbs.

[Macrocane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The convection is expanding and the bands are trying to wrap around the center I think that the re-organization and intensification process could have already begun. It's possible that it won't intensify that much because of its size even if the conditions are favorable, I think a low end cat 2 is still possible. The important thing is to remember that big storms can produce a big storm surge so people should not let their guard down.

[SunnyThoughts]

Looks as though Alex is definitely on his way to becoming a hurricane, By tomorrow morning if not before IMO. Good luck to everyone in the path, take heed and stay safe!

[KWT]

KWT, are you thinking Mexico landfall? After reading the latest advisory, they say they are more confident about that then they were yesterday, mostly because the models are consolidating. Plus they mentioned that their track is to the right of where the models are pointing it to. This tells me that they may shift the cone south once again on the next advisory.

Yeah still going for a N.Mexico hit, no real need to adjust for now to be honest!

The fact it has stalled though more or less does show though that the models aren't too sure about this one, not many picked up even a hint of a big ole slow down...so you just can't really say.

System is certainly ramping up but it does need to gain a little in organisation if its going to get much higher winds than it has now.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Yeah, if you were to just look at this storm from the satellite, it doesnt look like a 60 mph storm.

[cycloneye]

Hey peeps,Alex pressure drops to 987 mbs at first pass.

[brunota2003]

Recon got a low pressure of 987.1

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Recon got a low pressure of 987.1

you guys using google earths application to come across this info?

[brunota2003]

Recon got a low pressure of 987.1

you guys using google earths application to come across this info?

I am...from Tropical Atlantic...I think cycloneye was getting the actual text obs from either the NHC or the twister site (not sure if we have them here too or not)

[jabber]

The one thing I have learned from large storms is once that energy has been wound up, It takes some time to release. But when it does watch out.

[sandwichpick]

One thing I notice is the abundance of extremely cold cloud tops associated with this system. It hasn't necessarily congregated near the center, but man is it chilly atop Alex! Oh yeah, I'm a 5+ year lurker, but I figured I'd join up when I saw the post up top asking us lurkers to join.

[KWT]

Hey peeps,Alex pressure drops to 987 mbs at first pass.

Modest strengthening since the last pass by, nothing too impressive but then again the system has only just started to look a bit more healthy in the last few hours, I'm still not too happy about that huge feeder band on the north of the system, prevents the core from being able to really blow up as some of the energy is clearly still in the outer part of the circulation.

[Clint_TX]

Recon got a low pressure of 987.1

18z GFDL didn't have the pressure that low for another 36 hours...this storm is going to beat expectations on intensity

[SunnyThoughts]

One thing I notice is the abundance of extremely cold cloud tops associated with this system. It hasn't necessarily congregated near the center, but man is it chilly atop Alex! Oh yeah, I'm a 5+ year lurker, but I figured I'd join up when I saw the post up top asking us lurkers to join.

Glad you joined...welcome!

[ConvergenceZone]

Even if this does go to Mexico like is forecast, Texas should still get lots of rain from it, that's for sure!

[Texas Snowman]

I kind of wonder if that huge feeder band to the north is what has caused the N or N/NE nudge...

[KWT]

mmm FWIW 12hr motion is due north...certainly matches what some of the higher resolution models were progging for this morning, I did have doubts about them but they are coming off at the moment.

[Texas Snowman]

Even if this does go to Mexico like is forecast, Texas should still get lots of rain from it, that's for sure!

A bad scenario for Brownsville is a large system with a broad circulation going 20-50 miles south. Remember what Ike's storm surge did to SW Louisiana.

I'm probably wrong, but I kind of get the impression that a lot of people on here this evening are thinking "Yep, northern Mexico storm, not much to worry about in Texas."

But as Wxman57 pointed out earlier, the current track ideas are very concerning.

Beulah went into northern Mexico in 1967 but she was close enough to Brownsville to cause significant damage and loss of life (especially from the massive flooding rains that inundated the Valley). And South Padre Island was especially hard hit by Beulah's wind and storm surge.

For the much larger numbers of people living in the cities along the Rio Grande Valley today, the current track thinking could have serious storm surge implications. Not to mention rainfall implications post landfall...

[wxman57]

wxman57, if the center of alex makes landfall right on the tex/mex border as a cat. 2 hurricane, can you tell me what conditions i could possibly expect here in san antonio?

Depends where it goes after landfall. If the core heads into Mexico, you maybe get some isolated daytime storms inland across Texas as far as San Antonio, but heaviest rain would be along the coast where moisture will be more plentiful. If it moved inland north of Brownsville then headed west and slowed down, you could get 20-30 inches or more (core dump). For now, I expect the former is much more likely.

[Comanche]

One thing I notice is the abundance of extremely cold cloud tops associated with this system. It hasn't necessarily congregated near the center, but man is it chilly atop Alex! Oh yeah, I'm a 5+ year lurker, but I figured I'd join up when I saw the post up top asking us lurkers to join.

Welcome to our madness! Better get a coffee pot and a bag of snickers.