ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[Texas Snowman]

Trying for the life of me to remember the system that did a massive dump of rain (core dump?) in portions of central Texas a few years ago. If memory serves correct, Canyon Lake near New Braunfels actually came close to topping the dam...

[SunnyThoughts]

[Vortex]

Alex becoming better organized in the last couple of hours. In fact, the 1:00UTC sat image indicates convection beginning to fire right over the center. From this point on a steady drop off in pressures seems likely with Alex nearing or surpassing minimal Cat 1 threshhold by morning. And so it begins...

[ConvergenceZone]

It's definately more organized than it was a few hours ago.

[HouTXmetro]

what's the best type of satellite at night to to use to determine an LLC and where it's moving? I know vis is best in the day time.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

the bands on that IR photo to the north of the center are quite strong. Someone mentioned earlier about how it could pull the center closer to them? That possible here?

[Nimbus]

If Alex continues to move north slowly he will have quite a lot of time to intensify. Slow moving storms with weak steering are hard to predict, but apparently the models are seeing a strong ridge building back in north of Alex. I can't see that in the WV loop yet but fortunately the pro mets are watching for that to start verifying.

Those expanding bands to the north are following general pressure lines and the storm centers often do track in the direction of the bulge.

[johngaltfla]

Recon got a low pressure of 987.1

18z GFDL didn't have the pressure that low for another 36 hours...this storm is going to beat expectations on intensity

Clint, I think you're right. This has the potential to become very dangerous, very fast. After emerging from the Yucatan it has been quite unpredictable.

[Macrocane]

As you know tropical storm Alex produced heavy rains in Central America during the weekend and today the rains continued because of the big convective environment wich Alex is embedded in, here are some pictures of the fllods and mudlisdes in El Salvador:

http://www.laprensagrafica.com/component/ignitegallery/view/3002.html

[BigA]

what's the best type of satellite at night to to use to determine an LLC and where it's moving? I know vis is best in the day time.

Probably this, but someone more learned might have a better answer

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp (the non-colored infrared on the top left)

[ozonepete]

One thing I notice is the abundance of extremely cold cloud tops associated with this system. It hasn't necessarily congregated near the center, but man is it chilly atop Alex! Oh yeah, I'm a 5+ year lurker, but I figured I'd join up when I saw the post up top asking us lurkers to join.

Great! Welcome!

[cycloneye]

Breaking News=00z Best Track increases winds to 55kts

AL, 01, 2010062900, , BEST, 0, 207N, 916W, 55, 987, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[Comanche]

This is maddening!!!!!!! WXMAN, AFM, WholettheDELTADOGsout, TRUMET, JEFF. Forget the models, since they have debated as much as the posters on this board. What are YOU guys seeing in the ridge that is supposed to turn this, is it going to be there and strong enough? Is the turn going to happen or is this wobbling fewl going to wobble up the Texas coast or even LA? Mind you, I know this is a purely speculative call, Ben Franklin type forecasting.

[Wx_Warrior]

What met said this was turning to LA?

[Texas Snowman]

Recon got a low pressure of 987.1

18z GFDL didn't have the pressure that low for another 36 hours...this storm is going to beat expectations on intensity

Clint, I think you're right. This has the potential to become very dangerous, very fast. After emerging from the Yucatan it has been quite unpredictable.

Bastardi thinks this can go Cat 3. And personally, given Alex's pesky history, I think once the inhibiting factors are gone (i.e. proximity to land, time over cooler shelf waters, shear, etc.) we could see significant intensification.

I know the current model thinking doesn't support my contention that this could be higher end Cat 2 or lower end Cat 3, but Alex has impressed me for a storm that is no more than it is on current obs and sat presentation.

[ozonepete]

This is maddening!!!!!!! WXMAN, AFM, WholettheDELTADOGsout, TRUMET, JEFF. Forget the models, since they have debated as much as the posters on this board. What are YOU guys seeing in the ridge that is supposed to turn this, is it going to be there and strong enough? Is the turn going to happen or is this wobbling fewl going to wobble up the Texas coast or even LA? Mind you, I know this is a purely speculative call, Ben Franklin type forecasting.

You have to learn the patience. It's really hard to wait like this, I know, but nobody really knows. We all expect the models and the best Mets to gradually adjust the track, and they'll be really accurate by two days before landfall, but the science isn't good enough yet to get it right before 48 hours.

[hurricaneCW]

It's going to have a tough time reaching Cat 3 due to its immense size. I'm thinking a smaller version of Ike, highest 105mph. Could be a flooding disaster for someone due to its slow speed. I'm surprised its been increased to 55 knots, there was no need for an increase in intensity and there is nothing to support 55 kts. There is barely enough to support 50knots.

[Cape Verde]

Once Alex crossed the Yucatan, nobody has had a good handle on this storm. The models may sorta, kinda, be converging on Brownsville, yet there is still plenty of uncertainty at this forum.

It's one thing to be debating two days out whether a storm is going to make landfall at Mobile vs. Pensacola, but we can't even get this storm to move or even pick a nation to hit. I was more sure of where this storm was going to hit on Saturday than I am today.

Our pro mets are usually somewhat in agreement, even if they turn out to be incorrect later. I get the feeling that going with the NHC cone is as good as anything else, simply because nobody has much certainty of anything tonight. Okay, Cuba looks pretty safe.

Meanwhile, Alex continues to surprise us, almost on an hourly basis.

[johngaltfla]

Snowman, I made a wild prediction before the season so a Cat 3 in June would fit right in with the insanity I thought we would see. I fear August and September will be just like 2005. Alex though is demonstrating that no matter how well established we think we have the science, Mother Nature can tear through that idea in a heartbeat. Alex could quite easily become a Cat 3 if the conditions do not change drastically in the next 24 hours to weaken the storm or inhibit development.

[jlauderdal]

18z GFDL didn't have the pressure that low for another 36 hours...this storm is going to beat expectations on intensity[/quote]

Clint, I think you're right. This has the potential to become very dangerous, very fast. After emerging from the Yucatan it has been quite unpredictable.[/quote]

Bastardi thinks this can go Cat 3. And personally, given Alex's pesky history, I think once the inhibiting factors are gone (i.e. proximity to land, time over cooler shelf waters, shear, etc.) we could see significant intensification.

I know the current model thinking doesn't support my contention that this could be higher end Cat 2 or lower end Cat 3, but Alex has impressed me for a storm that is no more than it is on current obs and sat presentation.[/quote]

intensity forecasting is a real mystery as we are reminded by NHC often, bastardi's cat 3 is certainly possible as is a cat 1, a major is certainly not out of the question considering the conditions ahead