ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[ozonepete]

[/quote]

Bastardi thinks this can go Cat 3. And personally, given Alex's pesky history, I think once the inhibiting factors are gone (i.e. proximity to land, time over cooler shelf waters, shear, etc.) we could see significant intensification.

I know the current model thinking doesn't support my contention that this could be higher end Cat 2 or lower end Cat 3, but Alex has impressed me for a storm that is no more than it is on current obs and sat presentation.[/quote]

Hate to ask this, but I must. What training in Tropical Meteorology does Joe Bastardi have? If he does and I didn't know, I stand corrected. Or is it that he's using a team of Tropical Meteorologists to express his opinions?

[Nederlander]

Trying for the life of me to remember the system that did a massive dump of rain (core dump?) in portions of central Texas a few years ago. If memory serves correct, Canyon Lake near New Braunfels actually came close to topping the dam...

It was 2002, but i dont think it was tc.. just a low pressure system parked over south tx

[HouTXmetro]

Breaking News=00z Best Track increases winds to 55kts

AL, 01, 2010062900, , BEST, 0, 207N, 916W, 55, 987, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

I thought Alex was 60mph last advisory?

[HouTXmetro]

Trying for the life of me to remember the system that did a massive dump of rain (core dump?) in portions of central Texas a few years ago. If memory serves correct, Canyon Lake near New Braunfels actually came close to topping the dam...

It was 2002, but i dont think it was tc.. just a low pressure system parked over south tx

Erin?

[Nederlander]

Breaking News=00z Best Track increases winds to 55kts

AL, 01, 2010062900, , BEST, 0, 207N, 916W, 55, 987, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

I thought Alex was 60mph last advisory?

remember knots is different from mph..

55 kt = 63 mph

[HouTXmetro]

Breaking News=00z Best Track increases winds to 55kts

AL, 01, 2010062900, , BEST, 0, 207N, 916W, 55, 987, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

I thought Alex was 60mph last advisory?

remember knots is different from mph..

55 kt = 63 mph

sorry, attention to detail

[Nimbus]

18z GFDL didn't have the pressure that low for another 36 hours...this storm is going to beat expectations on intensity

That can also have a feedback effect on the track. An intensifying storm builds an anticyclone high pressure dome over itself that in turn lessens the effects of other steering elements.

[Texas Snowman]

Bastardi thinks this can go Cat 3. And personally, given Alex's pesky history, I think once the inhibiting factors are gone (i.e. proximity to land, time over cooler shelf waters, shear, etc.) we could see significant intensification.

I know the current model thinking doesn't support my contention that this could be higher end Cat 2 or lower end Cat 3, but Alex has impressed me for a storm that is no more than it is on current obs and sat presentation.[/quote]

Hate to ask this, but I must. What training in Tropical Meteorology does Joe Bastardi have? If he does and I didn't know, I stand corrected. Or is it that he's using a team of Tropical Meteorologists to express his opinions?[/quote]

Can't answer that question completely.

I know he has a Penn State meterology degree, is the son of a forecaster, and developed an interest in tropical meterology at an early age after an East Coast storm his family was in (that's the same way I developed my interest in tropical meterology, after going through Hurricane Carmen in 1974).

All that to say that from what I know, he's been one of Accuweather's lead hurricane experts for plenty of years now...

[Nederlander]

18z GFDL didn't have the pressure that low for another 36 hours...this storm is going to beat expectations on intensity

That can also have a feedback effect on the track. An intensifying storm builds an anticyclone high pressure dome over itself that in turn lessens the effects of other steering elements.

My honest opinion is that dry air may create a problem for Alex.. He could very well strengthen into a major out in the gulf, but as he nears landfall, i think dry air could really disrupt him..

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

EDIT: As far as Bastardi goes, a lot of people give him hell for his antics, but IMO he is a darn good forecaster.. especially in the long range

[Cainer]

Big burst of cold cloud tops directly over the center, perhaps the first stages of a CDO? Be interesting to see the change in pressure (if any) during the next center pass.

[Nederlander]

Big burst of cold cloud tops directly over the center, perhaps the first stages of a CDO? Be interesting to see the change in pressure (if any) during the next center pass.

I am still not impressed with his overall look.. i think he is going to have to tighten up and pull in some moisture on the NW quadrant before he can really ramp up..

[Texas Snowman]

My honest opinion is that dry air may create a problem for Alex.. He could very well strengthen into a major out in the gulf, but as he nears landfall, i think dry air could really disrupt him.

Which brings up a question I've been wanting to ask.

As a kid, I watched as Hurricane Allen was disrupted by dry air entraining into his circulation off the Texas mainland. Saw the same thing pretty much happen back in 2005 with Katrina as it neared the Louisiana coastline.

But what kept that from happening when Hurricane Carla made landfall in September 1961? She pretty much held her intensity intact all the way to landfall didn't she? Why didn't dry air coming off the Texas mainland take the edge off of her bite?

[WeatherLovingDoc]

As you know tropical storm Alex produced heavy rains in Central America during the weekend and today the rains continued because of the big convective environment wich Alex is embedded in, here are some pictures of the fllods and mudlisdes in El Salvador:

http://www.laprensagrafica.com/component/ignitegallery/view/3002.html

Thanks for those real life pictures, Macrocane of the effects of this storm. I've been concerned about your area, and am horrified to see how high the water is, and the people having to sit in it (although where else would they go short of up hill?).

I sent the link on to a grand group of high schoolers in my town currently whimpering some about life....

[txagwxman]

If that is the center, then NHC will have to adjust their next forecast track to the right of the previous...

[ozonepete]

Bastardi thinks this can go Cat 3. And personally, given Alex's pesky history, I think once the inhibiting factors are gone (i.e. proximity to land, time over cooler shelf waters, shear, etc.) we could see significant intensification.

I know the current model thinking doesn't support my contention that this could be higher end Cat 2 or lower end Cat 3, but Alex has impressed me for a storm that is no more than it is on current obs and sat presentation.

Hate to ask this, but I must. What training in Tropical Meteorology does Joe Bastardi have? If he does and I didn't know, I stand corrected. Or is it that he's using a team of Tropical Meteorologists to express his opinions?[/quote]

Can't answer that question completely.

I know he has a Penn State meterology degree, is the son of a forecaster, and developed an interest in tropical meterology at an early age after an East Coast storm his family was in (that's the same way I developed my interest in tropical meterology, after going through Hurricane Carmen in 1974).

All that to say that from what I know, he's been one of Accuweather's lead hurricane experts for plenty of years now...[/quote]

Yeah, no bad here. I like the guy. And I'm from Penn State too. I just wondered why he has moved so heavily into huricane forecasting in the last year.

[Texas Snowman]

[quote="Nederlander]EDIT: As far as Bastardi goes, a lot of people give him hell for his antics, but IMO he is a darn good forecaster.. especially in the long range[/quote]


I completely agree....a lot of people give JB a lot of grief over his demonstrative tendencies and his working for a private entity that seeks to make a profit.

But at the end of the day, I think he is...to use your term...a darn good forecaster.

[Javlin]

Big burst of cold cloud tops directly over the center, perhaps the first stages of a CDO? Be interesting to see the change in pressure (if any) during the next center pass.

I am still not impressed with his overall look.. i think he is going to have to tighten up and pull in some moisture on the NW quadrant before he can really ramp up..

I am think'in the gry air situation is abot to be over? 6 miles N and 12 mies E
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir4.html

[Nimbus]

18z GFDL didn't have the pressure that low for another 36 hours...this storm is going to beat expectations on intensity

That can also have a feedback effect on the track. An intensifying storm builds an anticyclone high pressure dome over itself that in turn lessens the effects of other steering elements.

My honest opinion is that dry air may create a problem for Alex.. He could very well strengthen into a major out in the gulf, but as he nears landfall, i think dry air could really disrupt him..

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


EDIT: As far as Bastardi goes, a lot of people give him hell for his antics, but IMO he is a darn good forecaster.. especially in the long range

If Alex did make it to LA it would probably be as a weakened storm from its own shear after gulping some dry air.

[Stephanie]

Bastardi thinks this can go Cat 3. And personally, given Alex's pesky history, I think once the inhibiting factors are gone (i.e. proximity to land, time over cooler shelf waters, shear, etc.) we could see significant intensification.

I know the current model thinking doesn't support my contention that this could be higher end Cat 2 or lower end Cat 3, but Alex has impressed me for a storm that is no more than it is on current obs and sat presentation.

Hate to ask this, but I must. What training in Tropical Meteorology does Joe Bastardi have? If he does and I didn't know, I stand corrected. Or is it that he's using a team of Tropical Meteorologists to express his opinions?

Can't answer that question completely.

I know he has a Penn State meterology degree, is the son of a forecaster, and developed an interest in tropical meterology at an early age after an East Coast storm his family was in (that's the same way I developed my interest in tropical meterology, after going through Hurricane Carmen in 1974).

All that to say that from what I know, he's been one of Accuweather's lead hurricane experts for plenty of years now...[/quote]

Yeah, no bad here. I like the guy. And I'm from Penn State too. I just wondered why he has moved so heavily into huricane forecasting in the last year.[/quote]

I'd like to think it's because it's been such an active decade.

[deltadog03]

They are going to have to adjust a little right IMO....