ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[CronkPSU]

has aric posted tonight, i know last night he was worried about the NHS forecast, was wondering how he feels tonight

[pimentel2]

15 minutes left to get the 11PM Advisory. I'm dying to see it.

[ozonepete]

The outflow is really starting to get re-established on the western side as the upper trof drops rapidly to the SW.

We should be in for a period of intensification over the next 24 hours.

Totally agree. The only possible negative right now is the dry air, but it's not ingesting any of it so far, and the water vapor loops seem to show that the dry air is eroding away ahead of it. If that trend holds on, look out.

[pimentel2]

And the moment I post....they update the Advisory!

Here's the newest one

[TropicalWXMA]

15 minutes left to get the 11PM Advisory. I'm dying to see it.

I posted it on the last page:

544
WTNT32 KNHC 010243
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

...POWERFUL HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 69.9W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM NE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 910 MI...1460 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.9 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST THEREAFTER. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF
THE HURRICANE WILL BE PASSING WELL EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS TONIGHT AND NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

EARL IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. NOAA BUOY
41046...LOCATED ABOUT 85 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF
EARL...RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 57 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 67
MPH AND A PRESSURE OF 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES.

[sponger]

I remember surfing Hugo. I was to young and inexperienced to know I should not have been out there alone (Stuart Rocks) After paddling 150 yards out a wood rail used to line terraced gardens flew over my head on a 10 footer. I immediately paddled in and saw an oil drum, tons of red roof tiles, and trees ripped up by the roots and no leaves or limbs strewn all over the beach.

However Friday is shaping up to be the surf day of the year with likely 2-3 foot over head and offshores. Thankfully I am not 20 and will be ready!

[emeraldislencguy]

the advisory is now out
go to the nhc web page
moving nw they have nudge it a little to the left
maybe skip is right on tv12

[Brent]

THERE HAS
BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE NHC FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. EARL IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE RIGHT AS IT MOVES AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTERWARDS...A VIGOROUS MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
AT 500 MB WILL APPROACH THE EAST COAST AND SHOULD CAUSE THE
HURRICANE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. OF COURSE...THE
TIMING OF THIS TURN IS CRITICAL IN DETERMINING HOW CLOSE THE CENTER
WILL COME TO THE U.S. EAST COAST. ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE
EXACT FORECAST TRACK BECAUSE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...AND ALSO
BECAUSE EARL IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS CAN BE
WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.

[Weatherfreak14]

I remember surfing Hugo. I was to young and inexperienced to know I should have been out there alone (Stuart Rocks) After paddling 150 yards out a wood rail used to line terraced gardens flew over my head on a 10 footer. I immediately paddled in and saw an oild drum, tons of red roof tiles, and trees ripped up by the roots and no leaves or limbs strewn all over the beach.

However Friday is shaping up to be the surf day of the year with likely 2-3 foot over head and offshores. Thankfully I am not 20 and will be ready!

I used to surf and with i was back in the carolinas to surf this. I wished for a storm to bring waves like this for a long time

[emeraldislencguy]

the buoy northwest of the center is an interesting observation
when do yall think they may issue warnings??

[cycloneye]

the advisory is now out
go to the nhc web page
moving nw they have nudge it a little to the left
maybe skip is right on tv12

THE TRACK HAS BEEN WOBBLING AS IS TYPICAL OF INTENSE HURRICANES BUT
THE MEAN MOTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS IS ABOUT 310/13. THERE HAS
BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE NHC FORECAST TRACK

[brunota2003]

Anyone know when the G-IV data will make it into the models? Shouldn't the GFS be coming out soon?

[CronkPSU]

this may not be the right place to ask this question but looking at that path and all the storms i have seen take this kind of path, id the east coast shaped this way because of millions of years of similar storms getting moved along the edge of high pressure ridges causing erosion and for the beachline to be where it is?

[ozonepete]

Anyone know when the G-IV data will make it into the models? Shouldn't the GFS be coming out soon?

dunno. GFS is often out by now, but I keep checking and it's definitely not out yet. I would think that the G-IV data won't get into the models until tomorrow morning's 12Z runs.

Ooops! I corrected 00Z to 12Z

[pimentel2]

Oh great. Two models now bring Earl directly over RI....should I be concerned?



Well, the unlikely scenario is looking more likely to happen with each passing minute.

[sponger]

Track reminds me a lot of Floyd. Probably been mentioned already but how close in size, forecast track and intensity at this distance is this?

[fig]

Track reminds me a lot of Floyd. Probably been mentioned already but how close in size, forecast track and intensity at this distance is this?

Floyd came in a little more westerly and closer to Florida before turning north, and he actually made landfall here in NC, a little south of where Earl *might* make landfall.

[Florida1118]

Oh great. Two models now bring Earl directly over RI....should I be concerned?

Well, the unlikely scenario is looking more likely to happen with each passing minute.

No, Those are two models off a concensus. They arent with the pack if you will so dont worry just yet but defiantly be prepared.

[Evil Jeremy]

Anyone know when the G-IV data will make it into the models? Shouldn't the GFS be coming out soon?

dunno. GFS is often out by now, but I keep checking and it's definitely not out yet. I would think that the G-IV data won't get into the models until tomorrow morning's 12Z runs.

Ooops! I corrected 00Z to 12Z

GFS doesn't start until 11:30.

[brunota2003]

Track reminds me a lot of Floyd. Probably been mentioned already but how close in size, forecast track and intensity at this distance is this?

Floyd came in a little more westerly and closer to Florida before turning north, and he actually made landfall here in NC, a little south of where Earl *might* make landfall.

If Earl moves in on the crystal coast or thereabouts, that would be very bad. It would be right on the coast, close to the water, so it wouldn't weaken too much...plus that path would cause it to literally ride right up the entire east coast from NC northward.