ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[izzman]

What is going on with NHC site. I can't get connected for the last hour. TWC's feeds fro NHC are also unavailable. I wonder if they are too bombarded which wouldn't be a good sing for any disasters. Note total newbie and novice to weather though I have adbvanced degrees in Math and Physics.
Gracias. This is the best site i have found so far.

[CJPILOT]

what is the chances of this thing having regained cat 4 status when recon gets in there???

Possible, but Earl has some cooler water ahead of him. He will likely hold this level or decrease slightly.

Well I stand corrected. Raw T values indicate Earl is back to CAT 4. Over the longer run there is cooler water ahead, but in the short-term Earl looks strong.

[Recurve]

FYI Latest track. See http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?5-daynl#contents for official information.

[Recurve]

What is going on with NHC site. I can't get connected for the last hour. TWC's feeds fro NHC are also unavailable. I wonder if they are too bombarded which wouldn't be a good sing for any disasters. Note total newbie and novice to weather though I have adbvanced degrees in Math and Physics.
Gracias. This is the best site i have found so far.

Something must be wrong at the ISP level or your area's internet. I'm not having any trouble with DSL (ATT) in Florida.

[izzman]

What is going on with NHC site. I can't get connected for the last hour. TWC's feeds fro NHC are also unavailable. I wonder if they are too bombarded which wouldn't be a good sing for any disasters. Note total newbie and novice to weather though I have adbvanced degrees in Math and Physics.
Gracias. This is the best site i have found so far.

Something must be wrong at the ISP level or your area's internet. I'm not having any trouble with DSL (ATT) in Florida.

Thanks. I think you're right. Appreciate the pastes from their sites though!

[funster]

Looks to be much closer to the coast at a couple points than it looked like it would be several days ago.

[SkeetoBite]

[JtSmarts]

When that turn to NNE occurs will be absolutely critical.

[anarchiver19]

I have kind of a stupid question, but I'm going to ask it anyway...they've extended the hurricane warning up to the NC/VA border...I am on the coast about 25 miles north from the border so we are technically in the watch area...how artificial is that line between a warning and a watch? I also understand the NHC is saying that just a slight deviation westward will have huge implications for the coast...

[Gigsley]

Not to happy about this new dog leg backwards around 8:00AM Sat. I have friends in Portland, ME. Is this due to a (change) weakining in the trough at that time? The path is starting to look like a snake.

[CrazyC83]

I would think a Hurricane Watch would be needed tonight for the New England coast?

[Recurve]

Here is the full track view from the Navy. Note the stepped-circular areas indicate radius of winds. Note this is from NHC advisory #28, not the 11 a.m. advisory, the Navy map hasn't updated yet.

[CrazyC83]

I have kind of a stupid question, but I'm going to ask it anyway...they've extended the hurricane warning up to the NC/VA border...I am on the coast about 25 miles north from the border so we are technically in the watch area...how artificial is that line between a warning and a watch? I also understand the NHC is saying that just a slight deviation westward will have huge implications for the coast...

Yes technically you are in the watch, just north of the warning. The watch is up to Cape Henlopen, Delaware right now. I would have also at least put up a Tropical Storm Watch for the lower Chesapeake.

[cwachal]

I have kind of a stupid question, but I'm going to ask it anyway...they've extended the hurricane warning up to the NC/VA border...I am on the coast about 25 miles north from the border so we are technically in the watch area...how artificial is that line between a warning and a watch? I also understand the NHC is saying that just a slight deviation westward will have huge implications for the coast...

Prepare for a Major Hurricane and then if all you get is a few showers then you will have been prepared.. if you do not prepare and then you get the whole thing you will be in major trouble

[Recurve]

I have kind of a stupid question, but I'm going to ask it anyway...they've extended the hurricane warning up to the NC/VA border...I am on the coast about 25 miles north from the border so we are technically in the watch area...how artificial is that line between a warning and a watch? I also understand the NHC is saying that just a slight deviation westward will have huge implications for the coast...

In general it's a matter of both timing and probability, but read their definitions:

Hurricane Warning:
An announcement that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are expected somewhere within the specified coastal area. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the hurricane warning is issued 36 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds.

Hurricane Watch:
An announcement that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are possible within the specified coastal area. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the hurricane watch is issued 48 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds.

So, in my guesstimate, you are farther away both in terms of time and distance from the track. But you need to prepare in the same way I would think. It's more certain that the warning area will see hurricane force winds in the timeframe. You are likely to have a tropical storm warning if it doesn't go to hurricane warning.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ncweatherwizard]

I have kind of a stupid question, but I'm going to ask it anyway...they've extended the hurricane warning up to the NC/VA border...I am on the coast about 25 miles north from the border so we are technically in the watch area...how artificial is that line between a warning and a watch? I also understand the NHC is saying that just a slight deviation westward will have huge implications for the coast...

In your location, you should always have your basic hurricane preparedness kit ready in case power goes out for an extended period. Keeps you from having to wait in line for supplies after a storm. I wouldn't go out and spend any more money than you would normally would on nonperishables. Are you in an area where coastal flooding is an issue? Chances are it won't be any worse than several of the storms that have brushed by over the years, but if it is, you'll be ready.

[SunnyThoughts]

Bill Read...NHC director on live on the weather channel right now for those interested.

[anarchiver19]

I have kind of a stupid question, but I'm going to ask it anyway...they've extended the hurricane warning up to the NC/VA border...I am on the coast about 25 miles north from the border so we are technically in the watch area...how artificial is that line between a warning and a watch? I also understand the NHC is saying that just a slight deviation westward will have huge implications for the coast...

In general it's a matter of both timing and probability, but read their definitions:

Hurricane Warning:
An announcement that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are expected somewhere within the specified coastal area. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the hurricane warning is issued 36 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds.

Hurricane Watch:
An announcement that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are possible within the specified coastal area. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the hurricane watch is issued 48 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds.

So, in my guesstimate, you are farther away both in terms of time and distance from the track. But you need to prepare in the same way I would think. It's more certain that the warning area will see hurricane force winds in the timeframe. You are likely to have a tropical storm warning if it doesn't go to hurricane warning.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Thanks for the advice and info...all of this waiting is making me a little frazzled-especially since I have somehow become the hurricane information desk at work today

[ncweatherwizard]

I would think a Hurricane Watch would be needed tonight for the New England coast?

Yes probably; certainly by tomorrow morning. The wind field will probably expand as Earl moves northeastward on Friday. Cape Cod is much more likely to experience hurricane force winds than some of the places for which NHC just posted a watch.

[GoneBabyGone]

Predictions for Boston/Cambridge?

Fascinating storm to watch.