ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[KWT]

Earl looking abit of a beast again now, so much for it weakening down to a 1/2 like some thought earlier on, if anything it just looks like a more solid hurricane now and its shed some weight!

[SunnyThoughts]

one of the last visuals of the night

[MGC]

Last I heard Geraldo is going to lash himself to the Hatteras Light and put the satellite dish on top of the lighthouse......please don't start any rumors here....sure hope that old lighthouse survives.

Looks like the hurricane is still moving NW...sure hope it starts to turn so it will miss land....

Looks like it has wobbled north in the last frame of the satellite loop, sure hope it is a trend not a wobble.

Solid Cat-4 for sure.....MGC

[KWT]

Thanks for the image ST, quite the superb looking hurricane and even now its going to be a rather close call as to whether the eyewall hits land or not, in this situation it going to make very little difference if it makes landfall or just scores a direct hit with its eyewall.

[TheBurn]

[plasticup]

I bet they're getting impressive waves in Florida!

[rosethornil]

Don Slater (WAVY-TV10 in Portsmouth/Norfolk area) reports that we'll get some wind and a little rain and that's it. He says the projections show that Earl won't come up on land and that NC Outer Banks will get some higher winds and rain, but again - no big deal.

I'm a little surprised as how much they're downplaying all this.

Rose (in Norfolk)

[bighaben]

Guy on NBC says it could make a direct hit on the Maine coast. Doesn't seem too likely to me, he used very simple charts to display his theory. But are the chances of that happening, and when was the last direct hit on Maine?

Personally I'm hoping that trough comes rushing through knocking that sucker out of here, and all that heat trapped in the NE along with it. Need me some fall weather.

[pricetag56]

I want to hear some estimates on how high the storm surge may be with this. the surge is gonna be the real killer with this.

[cpdaman]

perhaps earl is makin his turn...now toward the NNW....

the reason i say this is because ......he didn't just have a wobble to the N ...but to the NNE on the last frame....to my eyes unless something is different

[dixiebreeze]

This shows what a really close call it is for Florida:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html

[x-y-no]

Is this a cool buoy data plot or what?

[ozonepete]

Have a friend of the family in the Morehead City area, will let everyone know what happens there...right now it is basically for sure he'll get TS force winds...maybe hurricane force winds depending on how close the brush is. If it wobbles west and makes landfall, it is possible he takes the near brunt of the Cat 4.

It will take more than a "wobble" for Earl to make landfall in NC; it would take a pretty major deviation from his expected path. It's possible, but we aren't talking about those oh-so-loved eye wobbles.

Gotta tell you that it would only take a MINOR deviation for Earl to hit Hatteras dead on. A minor deviation in its path right now gets amplified as it moves northwestward. So it wouldn't take much at all for this to hit land. That's why the NHC is so concerned, and should be. Just as important right now is that it has not slowed down. If it keeps this forward speed or even increases it, it will get to Hatteras before it can turn. that also has implications for areas farther north, and that is why watches/warnings were extended all the way up to SE New England.

[edgeblade]

I just got back from the grocery store a little bit ago and it was pretty busy, a little more than usual for this time of day. I checked their water supplies and hardly any of it was gone, maybe 3 or 4 cases total. Hope that we don't wind up needing it...

[plasticup]

I want to hear some estimates on how high the storm surge may be with this. the surge is gonna be the real killer with this.

Then check out the NHC's SLOSH model. It is really easy to use.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/psurgegraphics_at2.shtml?gm

[Epsilon_Fan]

It's scary seeing this thing bear down on the SE coast, knowing that eventually it will begin to turn. It's like the Titanic avoiding the iceberg

The latest satellite shows a bit of a northerly wobble so maybe the helm is responding.

[ozonepete]

I have a sinking feeling in the pit of my stomach. I'm in Norfolk and I really need to make the decision to evacuate by tonight. It keeps edging west and I live right next to the elizabeth river. only 30 or 40 more nautical miles west would put me in cat one or two winds/surge. I'll let you guys know tonight my choice.

Good luck to you. It IS a really tough decision but please be safe and take the safer decision.

[cpdaman]

I bet they're getting impressive waves in Florida!

north of the bahama blockage they are..i.e fort pierce north ....but south of grandbahama's latitude they get squat until the storm passes to the north....i surfed there it was a very sharp drop off.

[plasticup]

Is this a cool buoy data plot or what?

http://img138.imageshack.us/img138/2654/41046plot.png

The wave height plot from that buoy is even crazier. Nearly 50 foot waves, at one point. The next buoy to watch will be number 41010: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41010

Although that isn't forecast to come as close. 217.6 miles, according to http://stormcarib.com/closest.cgi

[edgeblade]

Don Slater (WAVY-TV10 in Portsmouth/Norfolk area) reports that we'll get some wind and a little rain and that's it. He says the projections show that Earl won't come up on land and that NC Outer Banks will get some higher winds and rain, but again - no big deal.

I'm a little surprised as how much they're downplaying all this.

Rose (in Norfolk)

That's pretty dumb on their part considering most of Southside is under a hurricane warning as far as I can tell by the NHC map. Not to mention the Peninsula is under a tropical storm warning. While I don't think it'll be as bad here as it will be say at the OBX, I don't think it should be taken lightly either.