ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[xironman]

Looks like recon is going to make a pass at the center pretty soon, lets see what is out there.

[KWT]

The CDO is taking on that buzzsaw look, got to be upper end Cat. 4 with that Sat. presentation.

Yeah it looks a bit of a beast right now, a little more compacted then what it was the last time it was a category-4 but still looks very good, wouldn't at all surprise me to see recon find it stronger then before.

[Macrocane]

Earl is a good looking storm and I agree that it may have strengthened a little.

[ROCK]

thats an upper end cat4 if I even seen one....we will soon find out...

[Hurricane Andrew]

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I have been thinking 140, maybe even 145 for the 8:00pm advisory.

Looking at a Satellite imige, I see a good looking Eye Wall. You can see the high cloud tops in it.

And yes, it Does look a little like a Buzzsaw.

And edit:too late to post it! Sorry peeps.

[CronkPSU]

could it reach Cat 5?

[cpdaman]

guys i haven't heard this mentioned yet.....so what is the shape/orientiation of the subtropical ridge's periphery that earl is rounding....is it straignt N-S.....is it SE-NW

i hear all this talk about earl's speed....and the trough's speed...but how North/south or steep is the periphery of the subtropical ridge ....do we have a map of this? thanks a million

[KWT]

could it reach Cat 5?

Unlikely but not totally impossible given where this one is at right now, but I'd certainly say its a decent category-4 now, 125-130kts is quite probable IMO.

Recon is going to be real interesting!

[xironman]

To me the shape of the ridge is the heights to the right of Earl.

[Sanibel]

A tad right of trop points now.

[BensonTCwatcher]

I think solidly in the Cat 4, probably upper Cat 4. Don't see that many in the ATL in that spot. I am soooo glad there has been improvment in modeling and forecasting in the last 10 years. Let's hope for an eastward wobble or 2. NC 12 will be under water anyway, and the erosion can't be avoided, but the barrier islands won't take a strong cat 4 at mid to high tide. We haven't had that in a long time, thankfully and it looks like we'll dodge the bullet on this one. Lot's to watch thereafter though.

[cpdaman]

xiornman thanks!

[AJF0602]

they didn't update the winds, they are probably waiting on the hurricane hunter. But this surely looks stronger than it did earlier. Earl is moving at 18 mph, that is pretty fast; any chance it could still beat out that troph? I live in North Topsail beach, NC a west ward deviation on the track would put us in some serious trouble.

[KWT]

econ should be reaching the eye fairly soon and so we are going to get a good idea as to what strength Earl is at as well as the pressure, I'd imagine something in the low 930s/high 920s at the moment.

[gixxer]

would like to start my first post with a word of admiration and respect for the the members of this board , your wisdom and hard work has helped me thru many a storm in south florida, i have been a lurker for along time. thank you.


now from my calculations at the current speed and direction earl should hit his farthest point west (75.4) somewhere around 5 am est, so i guess as a rookie likemyself any westerly movement after 5am-ish is really the thing to keep an alert eye out for?.


also what is the "A" word???

[RL3AO]

928mb 130kt fl

[Wayne]

would like to start my first post with a word of admiration and respect for the the members of this board , your wisdom and hard work has helped me thru many a storm in south florida, i have been a lurker for along time. thank you.


now from my calculations at the current speed and direction earl should hit his farthest point west (75.4) somewhere around 5 am est, so i guess as a rookie likemyself any westerly movement after 5am-ish is really the thing to keep an alert eye out for?.


also what is the "A" word???

I think the "A" word may be a reference to Andrew ?

[Tstormwatcher]

A=awesoooooooome I believe.

[WmE]

A as annular hurricane.

[RL3AO]

The "A" word is annular.

See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annular_hurricane