ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 07, 2010090200, , BEST, 0, 271N, 734W, 120, 932, HU

Up to 120 kts.

[ozonepete]

What do you think will happen when this hits the Gulf Stream.

Gulf stream is soo overrated when it comes to tropical cyclones. Its important when you have stalled systems trying to develop off the East coast, but when you have a moving hurricane, it doesn't really matter. It doesn't matter if it spends a few hours over water a few degrees warmer. It does matter if its a stalled system that spends 3 or 4 days over the warmer water.

All documentation on Hurricane Hugo, 1989 attributes its strengthening from a cat 3 to a high cat 4 to passage over the Gulf Stream.

[cpdaman]

wow look at this loop

obvious intensification.....wonder if he could contract the eye

what a beast

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... olor=black

[Tstormwatcher]

wow look at this loop

obvious intensification.....wonder if he could contract the eye

what a beast

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... olor=black

Looking at that, it really looks like it has taken a jog to the northwest once again.

[AJF0602]

definately a bit of a west heading again at the end of that loop.

[SunnyThoughts]

latest

[apocalypt-flyer]

Neeeeooooow Neeeeooow. Can basically hear the jigsaw looking at those last few pictures.

[shah8]

Wobble watching for that last 20-50 miles will drive you guys blind. Play some video games. I certainly did. Resist the temptation to wobble watch! Of course, I'm going to peek now and then, but guys, we're talking small, extra 5-10 miles jogs NW or W over the space of hours. Or east, it could be east, you know...

[SunnyThoughts]

dropsonde says 122K at the surface Guess that means we got a 140mph cane right?

[cpdaman]

definitely riding along the periphery of the ridge

there were about 8 frames due north then about the last 5 or so NW....interesting...these are not wobbles

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... olor=black

[wsquared77]

Checking in from New Bern, NC. This site got me through several storms when we lived in South Florida. Thanks once again for all the great info. We live on the south side of the Neuse River. Local mets are saying around 5 feet of surge on the river where we live. We're right on the river but in an area called the Bluffs. Our back yard drops pretty steeply about 15 feet to the river. We'd have to have A LOT of water to get flooded! Local mets also saying worst weather for us will be between 10p and 2a tomorrow night.

[Tstormwatcher]

wow look at this loop

obvious intensification.....wonder if he could contract the eye

what a beast

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... olor=black

sorry, computer did a double post for some reason.

[Stephanie]

Good luck wsquared77!

[Sean in New Orleans]

Going to be close in North Carolina, but, it's looking alright to me....clearly this isn't official, but, I've watched these systems for years, now. It appears to be starting to turn...it's beginning to shift to due North and then it will be NE. I haven't read this thread, but, if there are any "wishful" people....one, that would be border "sadomasochism," and two, your wish isn't going to come true, thank God! Out to sea he goes.....

[fasterdisaster]

I'm pretty sure he's just stairstepping guys. He'll be east of the forecast track and then the next hour he'll be west of it again. For now he seems just to be following the forecast.

[KWT]

00z Best Track

AL, 07, 2010090200, , BEST, 0, 271N, 734W, 120, 932, HU

Up to 120 kts.

Yep and pressure down to 932mbs, so looks like the NHC are going to go with 932mbs next advisory unless recon finds anything low in there.

[hurricanedude]

dont know if anyone noticed...but here is the forecast for Cape Hatteras for thursday night per wunderground.com
and thats assuming its offshore..WOW.
Thursday Night
Hurricane conditions expected. Showers likely. Lows in the middle 70s. Northeast winds 50 to 60 mph with gusts up to 80 mph...becoming north and...increasing to 60 to 80 mph with gusts up to 100 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 60 percent.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Can someone please post one of those windfield maps that were posted a few days back?

(i will try to find example)

[SkeetoBite]

Can someone please post one of those windfield maps that were posted a few days back?

(i will try to find example)

[cpdaman]

Going to be close in North Carolina, but, it's looking alright to me....clearly this isn't official, but, I've watched these systems for years, now. It appears to be starting to turn...it's beginning to shift to due North and then it will be NE. I haven't read this thread, but, if there are any "wishful" people....one, that would be border "sadomasochism," and two, your wish isn't going to come true, thank God! Out to sea he goes.....

pretty irresonsible calling out to sea he goes....we already have reports tourists on the outer banks aren't taking this seriously....look at the eye....and the huge ring of convection extending outward....that dark bank is about 35 or so miles from the center....the storm is forecast to pass just east of hatteras....that deep band is a couple wobbles west of the forecast track...everyone should be off the outer banks....like cantore said...this is 2010....evacuate them.