ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[cycloneye]

I wonder if the forecast for below average pressures across the entire ATL basin is the reason we will see this different pressure to wind ratio not just for Alex, but the season as a whole...

That for sure will be inteesting to follow as the season goes ahead. So far the ECMWF MSLP forecasts have verified.

[wxman57]

Yeah, convection appears to have died off in the northern half of the core. Also appears to be moving nearly due west past 3 hrs. Better for South TX.

[KWT]

The only good thing at the moment is it does look Alex is looking at a region thats not too heavily populated, at least compared to its north and south, not that thats any good for the people who are about to get hit tomorrow.

[vacanechaser]

I wonder if the forecast for below average pressures across the entire ATL basin is the reason we will see this different pressure to wind ratio not just for Alex, but the season as a whole...

That for sure will be inteesting to follow as the season goes ahead. So far the ECMWF MSLP forecasts have verified.

same kind of deal in 2005 if i remember correctly??!!


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Macrocane]

This reminds me of Ike with very low pressure that did not match with the winds, in visible imagery looks better than IR, I would agree with the NHC if the upgrade it to hurricane status even if it's just a borderline hurricane.

[KWT]

I wonder if the forecast for below average pressures across the entire ATL basin is the reason we will see this different pressure to wind ratio not just for Alex, but the season as a whole...

I think synoptic events have probably helped to give pressure this low, still I do remember quite a few storms, esp the big three of that season, I remember Katrina had pressures down to the likes of 960mbs and had only 70-75kts winds, so ya never know...

[KWT]

This reminds me of Ike with very low pressure that did not match with the winds, in visible imagery looks better than IR, I would agree with the NHC if the upgrade it to hurricane status even if it's just a borderline hurricane.

Yeah the Vis.imagery is better with this system in terms of presentation, then again its been that way for a while now as well. I think we are finally in a pattern though where it might be able to open up an eye in the next 6hrs...not quite there yet though.

[ozonepete]

Yeah, convection appears to have died off in the northern half of the core. Also appears to be moving nearly due west past 3 hrs. Better for South TX.

Absolutely! And that core problem has to be related to that huge southeast to northwest convective channel.

Wxman57 (or anyone), isn't that a synoptic level push to the northwest around the western side of that STR that is diverting energy from away from the core, i.e. it's killing the symmetry and preventing the core from consolidating and expanding?

[Time_Zone]

AL, 01, 2010063000, , BEST, 0, 230N, 944W, 65, 973, HU

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Strong winds in the SE Quadrant. This storm is all over the place

[KWT]

Interesting to see its at 23N, any WSW jogs would put its southern side rather close to Tampico...can't rule out a WSW jog as it gets closer to land IMO...

[gatorcane]

Interesting to see its at 23N, any WSW jogs would put its southern side rather close to Tampico...can't rule out a WSW jog as it gets closer to land IMO...

Yeah great point KWT, I have been thinking a WSW jog would not be out of the question as that ridge builds in to the NW of Alex, also some of the models were showing this a couple of days ago, namely UKMET and NOGAPS so they were sniffing that out.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

They just make it official?

Edit: It says Cat 1 on my google earth NHC data models application

[NEXRAD]

The 85GHz imagery from this afternoon showed Alex as having some very tight banding within the deep core convection. If this system forms an eye and eye-wall it will likely be quite compact, making Alex prone to quicker intensity fluctuations. It's certainly an interesting storm, though its appearance does look better than 60-knot to me.

- Jay
South Florida

[KWT]

Yeah it will pretty likely be upgraded, but I think NHC may just hold on and wait for certain given recon is going to go through the NE quadrant in the next hour...but yeah it is going to be a hurricane...

Jay, how strong do you think this could get in the 12-15hrs its got offshore still?

[Macrocane]

They just make it official?

Edit: It says Cat 1 on my google earth NHC data models application

I think it will be official until the NHC say that in an advisory, sometimes the best track says something but the NHC disagrees, for example Ana last year was a TS for a moment but the NHC kept it as a TD and was until the post season analysis that they accpeted that Ana was a TS before the official upgrade.

[cycloneye]

They just make it official?

Edit: It says Cat 1 on my google earth NHC data models application

No Special Advisory yet. I guess they will wait for more data from the plane before the 10 PM CDT Advisory.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

There almost seems to be some WSW motion going on with Alex, seems a Mexico storm is nearly certain at this point if you ask me, and it looks like it may even go inland far enough south of Brownsville as to not do too much damage albeit feeder bands are wrapping around that look quite intense. That would be some good news for those in Brownsville, bad news for those that live in Mexico who will take the brunt.

[txagwxman]

Alex is going WAY South (ECMWF)...Brownsville won't have many problems at all just heavy rain, tropical force wind gusts.

Hopefully I will get a 1/2" of rain out of this in Tomball...

[South Texas Storms]

do you guys think that if alex didnt stall he would have made landfall in corpus or in louisiana?