ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - MODELS

[ROCK]

30 more minutes until the EURO runs then its off to bed.....will try to get this out early if I can confirm with my sources....

[Ivanhater]

Hwrf still shows NW Florida

It's always worth keeping in mind the biases that models have. EURO for instance has a low intensity bias--it usually grossly underestimates strength. It also has a typically westward bias. GFDL and HWRF however usually have a high intensity bias--they are usually stronger than actual, and on top of that they have an eastward bias. So the fact that they show a much stronger storm which will be pulled more to the north anyway and they have an eastward bias means that they are probably way to the right of the actual track. In fact if I were to choose a place to be this weekend, I would choose to be in Panama City over New Orleans. And frankly, I would rather be in New Orleans over Lake Charles or Galveston...

Hmm with wxman, the NHC and HPC showing the central gulf I would disagree. But things could always change.

[Ivanhater]

06z Models
WHXX01 KWBC 210601
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0601 UTC WED JUL 21 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972010) 20100721 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100721 0600 100721 1800 100722 0600 100722 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.0N 68.4W 21.1N 71.3W 21.8N 73.9W 22.6N 76.1W
BAMD 20.0N 68.4W 21.1N 70.4W 22.5N 72.5W 24.1N 74.8W
BAMM 20.0N 68.4W 21.1N 70.7W 22.2N 72.8W 23.6N 74.8W
LBAR 20.0N 68.4W 20.7N 70.1W 21.7N 72.3W 22.8N 74.5W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 48KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100723 0600 100724 0600 100725 0600 100726 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.3N 77.9W 25.6N 81.5W 27.8N 85.2W 29.1N 88.5W
BAMD 25.5N 77.7W 28.7N 84.0W 32.4N 88.9W 34.4N 91.1W
BAMM 25.0N 76.9W 27.7N 81.8W 30.5N 86.1W 32.1N 88.9W
LBAR 23.9N 76.7W 26.1N 81.6W 28.7N 85.7W 31.8N 88.0W
SHIP 53KTS 58KTS 56KTS 54KTS
DSHP 53KTS 39KTS 33KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.0N LONCUR = 68.4W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 19.7N LONM12 = 67.3W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 19.1N LONM24 = 65.9W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[boca]

06z Models
WHXX01 KWBC 210601
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0601 UTC WED JUL 21 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972010) 20100721 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100721 0600 100721 1800 100722 0600 100722 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.0N 68.4W 21.1N 71.3W 21.8N 73.9W 22.6N 76.1W
BAMD 20.0N 68.4W 21.1N 70.4W 22.5N 72.5W 24.1N 74.8W
BAMM 20.0N 68.4W 21.1N 70.7W 22.2N 72.8W 23.6N 74.8W
LBAR 20.0N 68.4W 20.7N 70.1W 21.7N 72.3W 22.8N 74.5W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 48KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100723 0600 100724 0600 100725 0600 100726 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.3N 77.9W 25.6N 81.5W 27.8N 85.2W 29.1N 88.5W
BAMD 25.5N 77.7W 28.7N 84.0W 32.4N 88.9W 34.4N 91.1W
BAMM 25.0N 76.9W 27.7N 81.8W 30.5N 86.1W 32.1N 88.9W
LBAR 23.9N 76.7W 26.1N 81.6W 28.7N 85.7W 31.8N 88.0W
SHIP 53KTS 58KTS 56KTS 54KTS
DSHP 53KTS 39KTS 33KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.0N LONCUR = 68.4W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 19.7N LONM12 = 67.3W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 19.1N LONM24 = 65.9W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Is their a graphic to the 06z models yet Ivanhater?

[ROCK]

no graphic yet...refreshing at the FL site...

[boca]

Thanks rock, it should come out soon.

[Ivanhater]

Just looking at the text it looks like the Bams shifted east some, but it is the Bam

[Ivanhater]

Updated

[ROCK]

I will try to post the EURO as its running...thanks goodness we only have to go out 4-5 days...I need some sleeeepp...

[Florida1118]

They shifted north. will they keep shifting until the LLC forms?

[Ivanhater]

Word is the Euro takes a very weak reflection to Texas but nothing really to show

[Wx_Warrior]

Affirmitive Ivan...not much change in the EURO from 12z TUE.

[ROCK]

They shifted north. will they keep shifting until the LLC forms?

BAMMs are to be taking lightly for guidance...but I do look at them to see if they are sniffing something out.....with no LLC all the models will jump around....

[Ivanhater]

Affirmitive Ivan...not much change in the EURO from 12z TUE.

New Euro 72 hours..just taking an open wave with the low level flow...sorry for the map looking like someone threw up skittles on it, it's all I got

[ROCK]

not much difference from the last run....either its out to lunch or its sniffing something....hostile conditions in the GOM in 4 days? Dry Air? Shear? You cant discount run after run of the EURO basically showing the same outcome...

CMC has been drinking the EURO koolaide....

[Wx_Warrior]

Agree ...back to Full Tilt poker

[ROCK]

and I stayed up for that...wonderful....

[Ivanhater]

Looks like the weaker it is, the further west it goes.

[boca]

Goodnite tomorrow's a new day,wait a minute it is tomorrow.

[ROCK]

Well it aint doing anything tonight but then again it aint moving much either...if it goes across Cuba's moutainous terrain... I can see the CMC and EURO verifying....