ATL: EARL - Models

[KWT]

CMC goes with the recurve at 60W idea this run.

[xironman]

Looks like Earl still has his escape route, but it is close.

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models

The BAMMS track now to the north of Puerto Rico,the most westward positions than before.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 261830
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1830 UTC THU AUG 26 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE EARL (AL072010) 20100826 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100826  1800   100827  0600   100827  1800   100828  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.1N  38.0W   15.6N  41.2W   16.1N  44.2W   17.0N  47.5W
BAMD    15.1N  38.0W   15.8N  40.7W   16.5N  43.7W   17.0N  46.9W
BAMM    15.1N  38.0W   15.8N  40.9W   16.7N  44.2W   17.4N  47.8W
LBAR    15.1N  38.0W   15.7N  40.9W   16.5N  44.3W   17.1N  48.0W
SHIP        40KTS          47KTS          57KTS          66KTS
DSHP        40KTS          47KTS          57KTS          66KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100828  1800   100829  1800   100830  1800   100831  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.2N  51.3W   20.7N  58.6W   21.7N  64.4W   21.5N  67.9W
BAMD    17.6N  50.1W   18.6N  56.2W   20.3N  60.9W   22.7N  64.9W
BAMM    18.1N  51.5W   19.3N  58.0W   20.2N  62.6W   22.0N  65.6W
LBAR    17.9N  51.8W   19.3N  57.8W   20.2N  61.3W   22.6N  65.2W
SHIP        73KTS          82KTS          90KTS          94KTS
DSHP        73KTS          82KTS          90KTS          94KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  15.1N LONCUR =  38.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  16KT
LATM12 =  14.7N LONM12 =  34.8W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 =  15KT
LATM24 =  14.4N LONM24 =  31.8W
WNDCUR =   40KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   40KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  225NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =   75NM RD34SE =   60NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =  75NM
 
$$


[KWT]

Far from convincing weakness on the 12z ECM at 96hrs when you look at just the surface pressure, though you'd have to look at the heights as well to know whats more likely!

[Vortex]

models continue to trend further and further west...

[KWT]

Yeah they are trending westwards though the synoptic idea still looks to be the same as before with it lifting NW near 60W. I don't think the westward adjustment is quite done yet either...

[Riptide]

I certainly wouldn't want this TC to recurve along the East Coast. We know it will recurve but at which longitude? Danielle really is the key to Earl's fate and the trends favor a track between at least Bermuda and the East Coast.

[supercane]

Summary of 12Z dynamic models from easternuswx.com:

[KWT]

Most of those are curving up to the NW though some really aren't all that far away from the NE Islands.

Also the 12z ECM only avoids the Islands as the system lifts out to the NW at the last minue, 12hrs later and it'd probably hit the NE Caribbean.

[Fego]

Latest from models, including BAMM's at 18 Z.

[cycloneye]

Also the 12z ECM only avoids the Islands as the system lifts out to the NW at the last minue, 12hrs later and it'd probably hit the NE Caribbean.

The NE Caribbean is not out of the woods with respect to EARL brushing the NE islands of the Leewards. That is why we are watching very closely from here.

[Riptide]

Also the 12z ECM only avoids the Islands as the system lifts out to the NW at the last minue, 12hrs later and it'd probably hit the NE Caribbean.

The NE Caribbean is not out of the woods with respect to EARL brushing the NE islands of the Leewards. That is why we are watching very closely from here.

If Earl brushes the NE islands. I can almost guarantee that it will make landfall in North Carolina or Cape Cod.

[KWT]

Yeah Cycloneye the models seem to be shifting ever so slightly further west with time. If the system was to get say another 5-7 degrees further west before really lifting up to the WNW/NW then the NE Caribbean really would be at big risk for sure...

Its not a trend you wanna see really!

Riptide, many systems have hit the NE Islands then recurved, take a look at 1995, several systems took that track and recurved out at 60-70W.

[Riptide]

Yeah Cycloneye the models seem to be shifting ever so slightly further west with time. If the system was to get say another 5-7 degrees further west before really lifting up to the WNW/NW then the NE Caribbean really would be at big risk for sure...

Its not a trend you wanna see really!

Riptide, many systems have hit the NE Islands then recurved, take a look at 1995, several systems took that track and recurved out at 60-70W.

You are correct but I am getting a different vibe from the upper-level pattern, especially with Danielle moving out so quickly. Right now, I see a large high blocking eastern progression of Earl until about 35-40N.

[KWT]

ECM gets down to 940mbs with this one by 192hrs so looks like the ECM is seeing a major hurricane with Earl and a massive hit on Bermuda!

[capepoint]

Remember about not focusing on the line........
Recurving at 70w makes us in eastern NC most uncomfortable. I live at 34.4 76.6. 70w is a little too close. Many hurricanes move by the area from Cape lookout to Cape Hatteras, and althogh they stay "just offshore", we still get winds, tides, and rain. They are not counted as a landfall, but with the eye 10-20 miles offshore, we get plenty of damage from the west eyewall.

Opelia a few years ago was just this situation. although not classified a landfall, Carteret, Hyde, and Dare counties received a lot of damage because the eyewall ran right along the coast, although the technical pinpoint center of the eye never crossed the beach. Also Emily heavily damaged Hatteras but did not count as a landfall.

So lets recurve this at about 65w, ok? lol

[blazess556]

18z nam has continued the trend south with earl compared to 12z.

[Vortex]

18Z Nam trends even further S and W.




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[OuterBanker]

A little disturbing statement in 5pm discuss. TPC state that if Danielle lifts out earlierr it could allow the ridge to build back in and keep Earl on a more wnw path. I have no doubt that it will be lifted out, but when.

As capepoint pointed out a brush can be devestating.

65 west or earlier, I'm with you capepoint.

JB is thinking it could get to 70 to 75w.

Remember Alex in 04, it didn't count either because it didn't cross land even though Hatteras island was in the eyewall.

I think that rule needs changing.

[OuterBanker]

If you experienced sustained hurricane force winds you have been in a hurricane period. Whether or not the eyewall crossed over you.