ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[xcool22]

Don't you guys remember that almost all the models at one time showed Alex heading due West and then turning North and then NorthEast.americanre1

[tailgater]

Are my eyes playing tricks on me?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[TwisterFanatic]

Don't you guys remember that almost all the models at one time showed Alex heading due West and then turning North and then NorthEast.americanre1

Yes i do remember that

[americanre1]

Are my eyes playing tricks on me?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

What do you see, I don't have Java on this computer.

[xcool22]

tailgater ?

[Senobia]

Are my eyes playing tricks on me?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

Okay mine aren't - and what is that big blob of ugly north of Alex's core, heading for the Texas coast?

[Senobia]

Are my eyes playing tricks on me?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

Okay mine aren't - and what is that big blob of ugly north of Alex's core, heading for the Texas coast?

This one, a still frame.....from the link that tailgater posted.

[USTropics]

Don't you guys remember that almost all the models at one time showed Alex heading due West and then turning North and then NorthEast.americanre1

The reasoning for this was the poor initialization of Alex, due to the fact that Alex had practically stalled out after moving about 60 miles off the shore of the Yucatan due to weak steering currents. The models showed a lingering system that out waited the large H85-H50 anticyclone that has been pushing south near the central plains (this anticyclone can be seen clearly in the image of the current steering conditions below). As long as this anticyclone is sitting where it is, Alex will have to move more west then north.

[americanre1]

Don't you guys remember that almost all the models at one time showed Alex heading due West and then turning North and then NorthEast.americanre1

The reasoning for this was the poor initialization of Alex, due to the fact that Alex had practically stalled out after moving about 60 miles off the shore of the Yucatan due to weak steering currents. The models showed a lingering system that out waited the large H85-H50 anticyclone that has been pushing south near the central plains (this anticyclone can be seen clearly in the image of the current steering conditions below). As long as this anticyclone is sitting where it is, Alex will have to move more west then north.

Are you talking about the one over the plains?? How strong are the winds at the outer edges of that anticyclone? If not that strong, and Alex is picking up strength and cloud tops are rising up like I suspect, then it will be able to beat that out and ride the ridge to its East. Also that ridge over the plains if I remember correct is suppose to lift out to the Northeast shortly, causing a weakness in between the two ridges, leaving an opening for Alex to move through.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[southerngale]

hmmm so i guess a corpus landfall isnt out of the question yet aric?

you think alex could make landfall in louisiana?

i think that there is no chance of alex making landfall anywhere north of corpus.

you guys really think that alex wont make landfall in mexico?

Just those 4 posts were made within 13 minutes of each other. A suggestion... slow down and read. You'll learn a lot from just reading. Also, when you have a lot to say, try consolidating a lot of your thoughts into one post. This isn't a chatroom, nor is it a professionals only board, but in the interest of time and space, it is not necessary to post every single thought that pops in your head. Just slow down and spend some time reading from the many knowledgeable pro mets and amateurs who post here.

[tailgater]

Are my eyes playing tricks on me?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

What do you see, I don't have Java on this computer.

Sorry guys, just saw what I thought was a large wobble to the north but that was on an IR loop which could be just a warm spot in or near the eye. Looking at the radar it still looks like a WNW motion. A hate the wobble post so I am banding myself from posting for the rest of the nite.

[Texashawk]

Are my eyes playing tricks on me?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

What do you see, I don't have Java on this computer.

Sorry guys, just saw what I thought was a large wobble to the north but that was on an IR loop which could be just a warm spot in or near the eye. Looking at the radar it still looks like a WNW motion. A hate the wobble post so I am banding myself from posting for the rest of the nite.

Hey... don't be so hard on yourself TG. Frankly, if you're looking at the Brownsville LR radar, it looks either stationary or moving ever so slowly north - NNW.

[americanre1]

On a side note, here in Crowley we have been getting steady light rain for the past couple hours from the outer band of Alex, no matter what looks like South Louisiana will be in for a long wet couple of days.

[xcool22]

imo nnw imo.

[americanre1]

I think all the people that thought it was all done with and heading to north Mexico and decided not to stay up, will be scratching their heads in the morning, wondering what in the world happened that Alex is not any wheres where he is suppose to of been.

[TwisterFanatic]

On the Wunderground image you can sure tell a N movement to it.

[USTropics]

Are you talking about the one over the plains?? How strong are the winds at the outer edges of that anticyclone? If not that strong, and Alex is picking up strength and cloud tops are rising up like I suspect, then it will be able to beat that out and ride the ridge to its East. Also that ridge over the plains if I remember correct is suppose to lift out to the Northeast shortly, causing a weaknessy in between the two ridges, leaving an opening for Alex to move through.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yes, the deep anticyclone over the plains is currently deflecting Alex towards the west. You are correct in stating that the anticyclone will move out towards the east/northeast, but Alex will be well overland by this time.

[Aric Dunn]

well just did a quick satellite/radar analysis and believe that we are looking at about a 90mph... recon will likely find pressure in the mid to upper 960s and the eye wall is not likely closed at this time but is probably more defined with a larger wind field..
and the center should be about 23.3n and 95w

[Texashawk]

I swear I'm not crazy... but looking at the high-res RAMSDIS and the Brownsville radar... this thing's moving almost due north! Slowly, but still. Someone tell me I'm crazy. Come on. It's late. I won't mind.

[TwisterFanatic]

Wow! just looked at the Visible image this thing is taking a sharp northern turn.