ATL: INVEST 94L - DISCUSSION

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[KWT]

Very interesting, looks like the convection is wrapping into at least a MLC if not something more...needs to be watched for sure!

[christopher]

I have been hitting this site for 2 weeks now and decided to join. I love you guys with all your energy and up to the minute updates - and yes I as well have a lot of respect for NHC. I bet they wish they could be like you guys and stick there neck way out. I use to hit the old Millennium Weather site until Gary had to quit due to a conflict of interest with a job he had taken. I somehow stumbled on this website and am pumped up all over again. Keep those forecasts coming! Christopher

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

I have been hitting this site for 2 weeks now and decided to join. I love you guys with all your energy and up to the minute updates - and yes I as well have a lot of respect for NHC. I bet they wish they could be like you guys and stick there neck way out. I use to hit the old Millennium Weather site until Gary had to quit due to a conflict of interest with a job he had taken. I somehow stumbled on this website and am pumped up all over again. Keep those forecasts coming! Christopher

Welcome to Storm2k and thank you for those words.If you have any questions about anything related to tropical weather or weather in general,dont hesitate to ask. We also apart from this forum have many ones on different themes like winter weather,Weather in the U.S and Caribbean,Talking tropics and many more.

[artist]

I have been hitting this site for 2 weeks now and decided to join. I love you guys with all your energy and up to the minute updates - and yes I as well have a lot of respect for NHC. I bet they wish they could be like you guys and stick there neck way out. I use to hit the old Millennium Weather site until Gary had to quit due to a conflict of interest with a job he had taken. I somehow stumbled on this website and am pumped up all over again. Keep those forecasts coming! Christopher

Welcome Christopher! You will discover there are lot's of great mets and what I like to call other pro's here (they have been studying storms for so long and have some met classes, etc. that they can make some really great calls along with the mets here. I have a great respect for all of their insights and knowledge) Anyway, this sight has the news before the news does! Great to have you here.

[cycloneye]

Here is what 94L is sending to Puerto Rico / Virgin Islands and I am sure,to the Northern Leewards.

[artist]

wow, lot's more rain. Just what you probably don't need right now. Hope there is no flooding for all our friends on the islands there.

[Gustywind]

Tracking Info For Invest 94
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... track.html


Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
-------------------------------------------------------------
12 GMT 06/25/10 17.8N 57.8W 25 1013 Invest
12 GMT 06/25/10 17.8N 57.8W 25 1013 Invest

[Buck]

Convection dying a bit at the moment... but that can be expected right now. We'll see it in the morning. the MLC still looks pretty decent.

[Gustywind]

More conducive conditions for 94L as winds shear is fairly relaxing in vicinity of the NE carib islands.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[msbee]

not any rain here now. and just a light rain earlier.

[Nederlander]

Saw this sign on 94 L's door : Gone Fishin'

[Gustywind]

Code Yellow

000
ABNT20 KNHC 260547
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT JUN 26 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE...LOCATED ABOUT 260 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BELIZE
CITY BELIZE.

A DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC
FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
INTERACTING WITH A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 260548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUN 26 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
WAVE REMAINS AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH PARTIALLY MASKING
THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 62W-66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 79W FROM OVER CUBA TO
OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

[Gustywind]

Latest TWD on 94L
000
AXNT20 KNHC 261040
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUN 26 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC...


...TROPICAL WAVES...


TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W S OF 19N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
WAVE REMAINS AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH PARTIALLY MASKING
THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND ALSO REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 62W-66W.


$$
PAW

[cycloneye]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 261200
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUN 26 2010

CORRECTED TO CHANGE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO TROPICAL STORM ALEX

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ALEX...LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF BELIZE CITY BELIZE.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY
AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM ALEX ONE ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Gustywind]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
Wind shear tendency continues to show that winds are fairly abating in vicinity of the islands allowing for more conducives conditions ahead of 94L. Hope really that it stays like that because of we have been well showered this month especially with the last strong and active twave past week ! We shoul keep an eye on the flooding risk due to the nice amounts expected this weekend given Meteo-France. Stay safe and dry all in the EC and NE carib islands .

[Gustywind]

A medium burst is expanding just east of Guadeloupe.

[thetruesms]

I've been kind of neglecting 94L with the excitement around Alex Talk about a painfully apparent shear axis, though