ATL: JULIA - Ex-TC - Discussion

[cycloneye]

On it's way of turning into a TD pretty fast.

[CrazyC83]

TD12 at 11 maybe?

[hurricaneCW]

What a wild Cape Verde season this year. Totally contrast to years like 2005 although faster development means recurve, slower means U.S. threat and that's been the case so far.

[HurrMark]

This is almost certaintly a TD...it might not be declared one until visible is available.

But this looks like a bonafide fish...

[LaBreeze]

Up to 70%

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 400
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Looks like Africa has started bowling again and is looking for a strike.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 93, 2010091200, , BEST, 0, 128N, 185W, 25, 1006, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[HURAKAN]

wow, thing has to be at least a TD!!

[bob rulz]

When was the last time a storm formed so soon after coming off the coast? I know it's not official yet but it's well on its way...

[Hurricanehink]

It is currently at 17.1ºW. The last tropical cyclone to form near there was Jeanne 98, which became a TD at 17.4ºW.

[Brent]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 11 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 1140 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT 375 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. IF CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE...ADVISORIES COULD BE INITIATED TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.
INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM IN CASE WATCHES OR WATCHES ARE REQUIRED.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

SHOWERS ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY BEFORE IT IS ABSORBED
BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BEVEN

[CrazyC83]

I'm guessing there will be a special advisory before 1 am with the sound of that.

[cycloneye]

This has been all very fast as it was a invest still well inland, and now here we are at this moment.

[caribepr]

They are ripping off fast...wow!

[Ptarmigan]

93L will likely become Julia.

[cycloneye]

93L will likely become Julia.

Looks that way. It was almost a given a couple of days back that 92L was going to be Julia, but again, the tropics handed another surprise.

[Brent]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN SEP 12 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 1275 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIMITED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD STILL
FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15
MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...ADVISORIES
COULD BE INITIATED AT ANY TIME TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM IN CASE
WATCHES OR WATCHES ARE REQUIRED. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA
IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY BEFORE IT IS ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM
IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES NORTHWARD NEAR 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[Weatherfreak000]

MIMIC Loop is breathtaking. I suggest everyone go see this thing literally blossom as it hits the water, it's a sight to behold.

This is going to become Julia tomorrow.

[bob rulz]

It is currently at 17.1ºW. The last tropical cyclone to form near there was Jeanne 98, which became a TD at 17.4ºW.

I just read about this and if this is declared then it could be the furthest east-forming storm on record with the exception of Christine - and of course, it's debatable whether that actually formed as far east as the records say, they were a bit looser with the tropical depression designation in the 70s.

EDIT: My bad, this is already further west than Jeanne, I read it backwards. Still though, this is ridiculously far east for a storm to be forming.

[Chacor]

ATCF: AL, 93, 2010091206, , BEST, 0, 131N, 195W, 30, 1006, DB

[KWT]

This is a very quickly developing system, the east Atlantic has been exceptional favourable as you can see by the amount of storms that have developed there only to weaken a little once around 30-35W...

Looking good though the models suggest a very early recurve with this one...