ATL: LISA - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[Blown Away]

Seems the TAFB and NHC have 94L going west for the next few days which is contrary to most of the models. Wasn't there a long range model that placed 94L near Cuba down the road?

[blazess556]

GFS has it north of puerto rico in the long range.

[HURAKAN]

Seems the TAFB and NHC have 94L going west for the next few days which is contrary to most of the models. Wasn't there a long range model that placed 94L near Cuba down the road?

[Weatherfreak000]

Appears to be getting alot better organized. Strong shot to become Lisa as I suspect it should be 50% by 2 A.M. now.

My 19 storms prediction is feeling really good!

Edit: WV Loop suggests the dry air is not quite as prolific as we thought, seems a channel of moisture is being pumped into the storm from the north currently which is helping it organize.

[WeatherEmperor]

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT
300 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[RL3AO]

Looks like Liser could be here with a day or two.

(Hopefully you guys got that)

[KWT]

Yeah we should get Lisa from this system but this will I imagine probably be one the last true CV systems to develop...the CV region has been on fire this season!

[cycloneye]

70%


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN SEP 19 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA...AND ON TROPICAL
STORM JULIA...LOCATED ABOUT 1420 MILES WEST OF THE AZORES.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT
350 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...BUT THE CIRCULATION OF THE LOW APPEARS SOMEWHAT
ELONGATED AT THIS TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. THERE
IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[KWT]

Upto 70%, slowly but surely getting there in terms of organisation just needs to get a bit more of a solid center if that makes sense!

[HURAKAN]

Loop

[HURAKAN]

19/1200 UTC 15.2N 30.7W T1.5/1.5 94L -- Atlantic

no change

[HURAKAN]

WTNT21 KNGU 190700
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.9N 29.9W TO 16.6N 32.9W OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
2. REMARKS: CURRENT GLOBAL AND REGIONAL GUIDANCE ARE DEPICTING GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION OF A 1009 MB LOW SITUATED 370 NM WEST OF PRAIA, CAPE
VERDE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
NORTHWEST AT APPROXIMATELY 08 KNOTS. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS MORE ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THIS
IN CONJUNCTION WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 80 TO 82 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT, DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL
FEATURE.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE BY 200700Z.//

[jlauderdal]

70%


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN SEP 19 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA...AND ON TROPICAL
STORM JULIA...LOCATED ABOUT 1420 MILES WEST OF THE AZORES.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT
350 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...BUT THE CIRCULATION OF THE LOW APPEARS SOMEWHAT
ELONGATED AT THIS TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. THERE
IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

we need a poll when this thing gets named, thats a bit tricker than classified, be interesting if a late season CV system actually makes it through the recurver machine in the central atlantic

[OURAGAN]

Idon't see any center at 15N, i see something at about 14N,1N and 31,1W moving west

[MGC]

Looks to be getting close to becoming a TD....dry air might be an issue in the short to medium term though....MGC

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Latest microwave

[CrazyC83]

That ASCAT looks like a 25 kt TD to me...

[HURAKAN]

Nice pic

[HURAKAN]

SAL almost gone