ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[HURAKAN]

Someone sent me a picture of how they found the 18z position!

[Wx_Warrior]

Now that's classic!

[tolakram]

Looking at this: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=12

I'm no longer sure of an LLC. Outflows rushing north, appears to be a bend in the low level flow above that point but no inflow from the west yet.

[Aquawind]

Looking at this: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=12

I'm no longer sure of an LLC. Outflows rushing north, appears to be a bend in the low level flow above that point but no inflow from the west yet.

I see no LLC.. no west motion at all either..

[cycloneye]

Latest visible image in area of 18z Best track position.

[jasons2k]

Sheesh, as much as I have been preaching "patience, patience" I am beginning to have my doubts with this one. Maybe the GFS wasn't wrong after all...I should just step away and look again tomorrow.

[Aquawind]

LOL Yep it's frustrating..

[KWT]

Most models don't do much with it till 48-72hrs time anyway in the W.caribbean so plenty of time yet.

The MLC looks like its heading WNW whilst the convection continues to develop. Never know could see it get a LLC as sometimes they do dig down in these set-ups.

Hope it decays before it brings too much convection into Hispaniola.

[SoupBone]

Sheesh, as much as I have been preaching "patience, patience" I am beginning to have my doubts with this one. Maybe the GFS wasn't wrong after all...I should just step away and look again tomorrow.

My guess is the 20% came from the fact that the models have been all over the place and zero consistency. Plus one thing I've learned from years of weather watching is that patience is something most of us weather geeks have none of.

[tolakram]

Well,

convection is now firing near this phantom LLC. Yet another clue ... perhaps.

[Brent]

:uarrow: LOL Yep it's frustrating..

Indeed it is but it happens quite a bit when the storm is just forming. I still think this storm is going to form sooner or later.

[ConvergenceZone]

LOL. I think I'm not going to start commenting on these waves until I actually a depresson on the screen. These waves are driving me crazy. Up one minute, down the next.

[Comanche]

yeah, a stark difference between looking at the visable and the water vapor loop. All deeper convection is well off to the NE of where the visable has rotation. Just fugly for now.

[Aquawind]

I agree Brent..eventually it will pop.. untill then were in an official "swirl watch"

[Ivanhater]

Vorticity has definitely increased where the 18z track is focusing on

[KWT]

Sheesh, as much as I have been preaching "patience, patience" I am beginning to have my doubts with this one. Maybe the GFS wasn't wrong after all...I should just step away and look again tomorrow.

This is nothing compared to Dolly, which had us thinking it was something from 35W right through to 90W, it was only in the last few days of its journey it finally developed, we had a week where most of us thought it was a depression didn't we!

Just going to have to watch the wave axis as it heads west in the next few days, still feel confident something will get going at some point with this system.

[Florida1118]

I pretty sure something will become of this mass of clouds eventually...

[Comanche]

is it just me, or does the convection mass appear to be moving towards Hispanola?

[jasons2k]

Just to clarify, I'm not giving-up on this. Won't see anything for awhile...but still....it does test one's patience.

[tolakram]

Well, just for the sake of flip flopping once again, another view with cheesy arrows.

From this vantage point the circulation seems to be coming together.



Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1