ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Over my head]

In all the pictures of Alex, it looks like he is very close to land probably because he's so spread out plus the images make him look like he takes up the whole gulf. How far is his center from the shore?

[Evil Jeremy]

It also seems that the center has moved .2 north and .2 west since the last recon center pass, indicating NW motion, at least in the short term. I might be mixing up numbers though.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

So according to recon, Alex has moved approximately .4 north and .1 west from the intermediate advisory position.

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Yeah thats what i was referring to. So it's latest movement over the last couple hours has been NNW

[TexasF6]

Alex is right and North of where he is supposed to be................hmmmmm............Hurricane Watches anybody???? which model said he would do this? I know there was one......dragged him up the coastline of TX........????

[Sanibel]

What do you think? Landfall just south of Laguna Madre?

[RachelAnna]

Alex is looking healthy this morning. It won't be long before those winds wake up and smell the coffee that is the low pressure and realize.... ok, that wasnt working, but you all know what I meant.

Anyways, Alex's short term motion is key here. How much further north it tracks before bending back to the west can make a big difference for South Texas.

I think it's actually kind of scary that the people of Brownsville are just going about their daily business today. While it looks almost sure to be a Mexico hit, per the weather channel, it's business as usual in much of Brownsville. While panicking over the system isn't helpful, I was just surprised to see no one at the gas pumps and people going to and from work and the like. I guess life goes on even when a hurricane is bearing down on you! I just remember the way it was in Houston when Ike was coming, albeit he was a different monster altogether.

[tolakram]

Still heading NW or slightly north of NW according to both recon and radar.



Brownsville:

[cwachal]

if they were issuing a track based solely on radar... it would be north of Brownsville

[Evil Jeremy]

The longer Alex keeps on moving north, not only does that increase the effects for South Texas, it also gives Alex more time to strengthen and organize his windfield.

[SunnyThoughts]

Certainly looks much better healthier than yesterday, not much of that dry air left.

[Sanibel]

Maybe it's an intensification wobble and not "a move north".

[sphelps8681]

Alex is right and North of where he is supposed to be................hmmmmm............Hurricane Watches anybody???? which model said he would do this? I know there was one......dragged him up the coastline of TX........????

I think that was the GFS.

[South Texas Storms]

how long will this north jog last?

[tolakram]

Maybe it's an intensification wobble and not "a move north".

Always a possibility, but this is a pretty long lasting wobble, plus it has some upper air support for moving in this direction. The real question is how fast does the ridge build back in.

[Bocadude85]

if they were issuing a track based solely on radar... it would be north of Brownsville

IMHO it would be just south of Brownsville

[RachelAnna]

Maybe it's an intensification wobble and not "a move north".

Lets hope so! If the Nothern jog continues it may be bad news since people don't seem to be taking Alex all that seriously since it has been said again and again that it is Mexico's storm.

[tolakram]

[dhweather]

how long will this north jog last?

I think its over. If Alex stays on the current path , that extrapolates to 30-40 miles south of Brownsville.

[TexWx]

By the "untrained eye" it appears that the westward movement has begun.