ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

Current conditions in the immediate landfall/peak threat area - as of 9 pm EDT:

Tropical storm gusts
Tropical storm sustained OR 58 mph gusts
Hurricane gusts OR 58 mph sustained
Hurricane sustained

Delaware
Dover - A few clouds, 77/65, SE 6

Maryland
Ocean City - A few clouds, 74/73, E 6
Salisbury - A few clouds, 74/70, E 3

North Carolina
Cape Hatteras - Light rain, 77/77, NE 14 G 33
Elizabeth City - Overcast, 79/75, NE 21
Greenville - Overcast, 79/68, N 10
Jacksonville - Light rain, 76/73, N 15
Manteo - Mostly cloudy, 81/81, NE 18 G 25
New Bern - Overcast, 79/73, N 18 G 26
Washington - Light rain, 79/70, NNE 12
Wilmington - Mostly cloudy, 80/70, N 14 G 22

Virginia
Norfolk - Overcast, 80/72, NE 15
Virginia Beach - Overcast, 78/73, NE 15 G 23

Buoys
Diamond Shoals - NE 35 G 45
Duck - NNE 26 G 31
Frying Pan Shoals - N 27 G 35

[pimentel2]

Meh...even if it hits, I'd say this is undergoing a quick death.

[fasterdisaster]

Meh...even if it hits, I'd say this is undergoing a quick death.

Given recon, definitely not.

[TampaFl]

Hurricane Earl 8:00pm position - map courtesy http://www.BoatUS.com

[HURAKAN]

Observations in the OBX do not confirm that graphic

Reported winds are weaker than shown

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/mhx/obs.php

[fasterdisaster]

Observations in the OBX do not confirm that graphic

Reported winds are weaker than shown

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/mhx/obs.php

Isn't this because winds are lower on land?

[jlauderdal]

[HURAKAN]

Observations in the OBX do not confirm that graphic

Reported winds are weaker than shown

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/mhx/obs.php

Isn't this because winds are lower on land?

Not likely, just that the graphic looks like an idealized distribution of winds in a hurricane, pretty homogeneous. We know that doesn't happen.

[wxman57]

Observations in the OBX do not confirm that graphic

Reported winds are weaker than shown

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/mhx/obs.php

The main reason is two-fold. First of all, wind radii are drawn to the MAXIMUM extent of each wind field (39, 58 and 74 mph). So the outer 39 mph counter, for example, represents the MAXIMUM sustained wind that a location could experience if it's right on the 39 mph contour. Most likely, the wind would be significantly lower than 39 mph as the average wind speed. All the rest of the wind speeds within the contours represent the MAXIMUM likely wind at those points. Average wind speed may be much lower.

Second, the wind radii are for marine use only. That is, surface friction will reduce the winds over land by a good 15-20%. So when those contours pass over land there will be a double reduction to the average wind speed. There's the reduction from the max likely wind speed to the average wind speed and the frictional reduction over land.

[toto]

What happened to the two eye walls ?

Was that just an illusion ?

[gatorcane]

unless there's a unforseen change in the track(which shouldn't happen due to the steering currents), the US is about to avoid a damaging a blow....I'm thinking we really lucked out on this one!

Hope so, but Earl still has to get a few more degrees east to avoid hitting Cape Cod. Earl's still pretty close to 95 west.

The forecast for this system I have made from several days ago was for the hurricane winds to stay offshore. Indeed seems to be verifying.

[HURAKAN]

pressure up to 951 mb

[capepoint]

Total non-event so far in Carteret County. A few quick showers, just enough to wet the roads but no ponding of water anywhere. Maximum gust that I have recorded was 27 at about 5 pm today. Currently winds from N at 11 gusting to 22. Southern end of Pamlico Sound has about a 2 foot rise in water level. Ocean waves up to the base of the dune line in Atlantic Beach, but no erosion noted so far. One ocean fishing pier reported damaged, only damage report in the county so far. No disruption of electricity anywhere.

[CrazyC83]

Current conditions in the immediate landfall/peak threat area - as of 10 pm EDT:

Tropical storm gusts
Tropical storm sustained OR 58 mph gusts
Hurricane gusts OR 58 mph sustained
Hurricane sustained

Delaware
Dover - A few clouds, 76/64, SE 5

Maryland
Ocean City - Mostly cloudy, 75/73, E 5
Salisbury - Mostly cloudy, 72/70, E 3

North Carolina
Cape Hatteras - Light rain, 72/72, NE 21 G 49
Elizabeth City - Overcast, 79/75, NE 17 G 25
Greenville - Light rain, 77/70, N 12 G 17
Jacksonville - Light rain, 75/73, N 17 G 24
Manteo - Mostly cloudy, 81/81, NE 20 G 30
New Bern - Light rain, 77/74, N 13 G 23
Washington - Overcast, 79/70, N 10 G 16
Wilmington - Mostly cloudy, 79/69, NW 15 G 22

Virginia
Norfolk - Overcast, 79/73, NE 13
Virginia Beach - Overcast, 79/74, NE 17 G 24

Buoys
Diamond Shoals - NE 45 G 56
Duck - NNE 27 G 32
Frying Pan Shoals - NNW 25 G 31

[lonelymike]

unless there's a unforseen change in the track(which shouldn't happen due to the steering currents), the US is about to avoid a damaging a blow....I'm thinking we really lucked out on this one!

Hope so, but Earl still has to get a few more degrees east to avoid hitting Cape Cod. Earl's still pretty close to 95 west.

The forecast for this system I have made from several days ago was for the hurricane winds to stay offshore. Indeed seems to be verifying.

Your humility is showing

[lonelymike]

unless there's a unforseen change in the track(which shouldn't happen due to the steering currents), the US is about to avoid a damaging a blow....I'm thinking we really lucked out on this one!

Steven Hawking probably wouldn't agree but I'm few prayers and a silent guiding hand mighta had something to do with it....just sayin

[dekeoy]

Non-event here. Time to get some rest and regroup for the next expected issue, should it arise in 7-10 days.

[KatDaddy]

Be very thankful the worst will pass offshore.

[cycloneye]

Also good news that it has weakened a lot,not a powerful cat 4 anymore.

[Sanibel]

The big eye is still mostly due N on radar.