ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[Battlebrick]

The big eye is still mostly due N on radar.

I was going to post this, but I had a feeling someone was going to do it before me.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes

Its been looking due north for the last hour or so. To me, at least.

[Sanibel]

And now it is broken open on the south side.


I'm thinking Hatteras will get a close pass but mostly a good Tropical Storm and perhaps some surge.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[aerology]

Seems every body is outside with video cam in hand, or off line for power problems?
Maybe just resting up for their optimum video cam time tomorrow. slow board....

[Recurve]

Looking at radar, I bet Buxton is getting pounded now, with strong onshore winds and near-constant bands rolling in, and still looks like it could get the edge of the eyewall unless the northeast movement is really pronounced.

[Recurve]

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[midnight8]

1st time poster here. Love the info here. I have a question. Anyone know why Hurricane hunters are flying repeted n/s patern now vs the criss cross they normally fly?

[mf_dolphin]

There's actually been both a NOAA and Air Force plane flying. If you look at the Recon thread graphics I think you'll see they've been flying a pretty typical pattern.

[WxGuy1]

http://img341.imageshack.us/img341/9260/wilmingtonradar.png

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That looks like an old version of GR3. The Level 3 radar were were upgraded to a higher-resolution in the past several months. Head to the GR Owners forum and download the latest version (1.77 I think). You'll want the (free) upgrade -- the higher resolution in reflectivity and velocity data are very nice.

[fasterdisaster]

Any users from the affected area still online?

[BrianD]

WOAH!!!! Check out the colony IV OBX Webcam it's getting Freaking hammered right now! OUCH

http://www.motelbythesea.com/Beachcam.cfm

[mf_dolphin]

Getting interesting at this buoy. 30 ft wave height

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41001

Winds a little higher at Diamond Shoals buoy buy wave height around 20ft

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41025

[vbhoutex]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Cape Hatteras is definitely going to get what is left of the West eyewall unless Earl takes a sharp right turn now. This observation is based on radar. Earl is a ragged picture now compared to what he was earlier and thankfully much weaker. The OBX will have a rough night, but hopefully there won't be too much damage, especially compared to what it could have been. It also appears that much of the East Coast can rest easier since Earl should begin having more of an Easterly component to his motion relatively soon. SNE, especially Nantucket and the Cape still need to keep a close eye on Earl even though he will not be as strong as originally thought as he moves through or neat that area.
Just saw a report on TWC that Cantore has reported gusts over 60 mph where they are and "the house is shaking".

[THead]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Cape Hatteras is definitely going to get what is left of the West eyewall unless Earl takes a sharp right turn now. This observation is based on radar. Earl is a ragged picture now compared to what he was earlier and thankfully much weaker. The OBX will have a rough night, but hopefully there won't be too much damage, especially compared to what it could have been. It also appears that much of the East Coast can rest easier since Earl should begin having more of an Easterly component to his motion relatively soon. SNE, especially Nantucket and the Cape still need to keep a close eye on Earl even though he will not be as strong as originally thought as he moves through or neat that area.
Just saw a report on TWC that Cantore has reported gusts over 60 mph where they are and "the house is shaking".

Yep, gonna be a blustery night in the OBX, I also noticed what you are saying about the western eyewall on radar. The Cape, Nantucket, and then Nova Scotia are still in for what could be a rough time, even if Earl is "only" a Cat 1 when it gets there. I'm wondering how he will react when he is fully engaged with this cold front. Wilma was only a Cat 1 going over eastern S. Fla, but it seemed like being engaged with the cold front that was guiding her, really magnified the effect. Broward county had ALOT of damage from Wilma. I guess what I'm trying to say, is everyone still in the path, don't get too complacent just yet!

[Zarniwoop]

Jogged to the NE.

Looks like it will just miss the eyewall edge by about 10 miles tops. Still going to get a bit of wind though.

[breaking wind]

This is the worst I could find. http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/KHSE.html

[hurricaneCW]

It's nice that Earl is going a good distance east of the coast but I was hoping to get some rain from him. It's been incredibly dry for the past few months and especially this past week with record highs. Trees are changing colors but it's not because of the change of seasons.

[Zarniwoop]

This is the worst I could find. http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/KHSE.html

We're still 2 hours from seeing the real winds roll in. Not going to be epic, but will be stronger than that.

[toto]

Cape Hatteras is definitely going to get what is left of the West eyewall
unless Earl takes a sharp right turn now.

I remember Hurricane Ivan skirting around an island [Jamaica, I believe.]
The island was in its path... it skirted around and resumed the same path.
Weirdest thing I've ever seen.

[CrazyC83]

Current conditions in the immediate landfall/peak threat area - as of 12 am EDT:

Tropical storm gusts
Tropical storm sustained OR 58 mph gusts
Hurricane gusts OR 58 mph sustained
Hurricane sustained

Delaware
Dover - Overcast, 74/68, SE 3

Maryland
Ocean City - A few clouds, 74/73, E 6
Salisbury - A few clouds, 74/70, E 3

New Jersey
Atlantic City - A few clouds, 76/71, SE 8
Cape May - A few clouds, 73/72, NE 5

North Carolina
Cape Hatteras - Heavy rain, 75/75, NE 24 G 56
Elizabeth City - Overcast, 79/77, NE 22 G 29
Greenville - Rain, 72/72, N 8
Jacksonville - Rain, 75/73, N 18 G 25
Manteo - Rain, 79/79, N 23 G 35
New Bern - Light rain, 75/74, N 14 G 22
Washington - Light rain, 75/68, N 13
Wilmington - Mostly cloudy, 77/67, N 9

Virginia
Norfolk - Overcast, 80/75, NE 18 G 24
Virginia Beach - Overcast, 79/75, NE 16 G 24

Buoys
Cape Lookout - NNW 38 G 47
Diamond Shoals - NE 40 G 51
Duck - NNE 34 G 38
Frying Pan Shoals - N 29 G 36

[Bocadude85]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Cape Hatteras is definitely going to get what is left of the West eyewall unless Earl takes a sharp right turn now. This observation is based on radar. Earl is a ragged picture now compared to what he was earlier and thankfully much weaker. The OBX will have a rough night, but hopefully there won't be too much damage, especially compared to what it could have been. It also appears that much of the East Coast can rest easier since Earl should begin having more of an Easterly component to his motion relatively soon. SNE, especially Nantucket and the Cape still need to keep a close eye on Earl even though he will not be as strong as originally thought as he moves through or neat that area.
Just saw a report on TWC that Cantore has reported gusts over 60 mph where they are and "the house is shaking".

Yep, gonna be a blustery night in the OBX, I also noticed what you are saying about the western eyewall on radar. The Cape, Nantucket, and then Nova Scotia are still in for what could be a rough time, even if Earl is "only" a Cat 1 when it gets there. I'm wondering how he will react when he is fully engaged with this cold front. Wilma was only a Cat 1 going over eastern S. Fla, but it seemed like being engaged with the cold front that was guiding her, really magnified the effect. Broward county had ALOT of damage from Wilma. I guess what I'm trying to say, is everyone still in the path, don't get too complacent just yet!

Wilma made landfall south of Naples as a cat 3 and passed over southeastern florida as a cat 2