ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[TampaFl]

:uarrow: Surface reports are way below from what that shows

HURAKAN,

This Davis VP2 Plus @ Martins Point, NC. just north of Kills Devil Hills, NC had a gust to 68mph @ 6:33am this morning.

http://www.weatherlink.com/user/gmb9000/index.php?view=summary&headers=1

[OuterBanker]

Not really sure where those wind charts are from but they are not accurate.

Mark from Hurricane track is live broadcasting with steady winds in the 50's.

Recorded peak of 62 around 6:30 am in the Kill Devil Hills area.

We got off lucky. No overwash, no flooding and still have power.

Earl really a non event, more like a nor'easter.

[ravyrn]

If Earl continues with his current presentation, Cape Cod and Nantucket could be more fortunate than the OBX in regards to what could have been. I think Nova Scotia could be the only location at great risk and even that is questionable given the current weakening trend.

EDIT: I may have spoken too soon. The NHC track has shifted west just barely missing Cape Cod and is now on the west side of NS. Let's hope this weakening trend continues otherwise Cape Cod could experience Hurricane force winds and the western half of NS could be dealing with some nasty TS force winds.

[Valkhorn]

This idea that New Orleans flooded "a day later" is a myth that developed in the aftermath. Much of the city flooded during the storm, especially from the 9th Ward of New Orleans downriver into St. Bernard Parish as levees were breached and overtopped. My wife's uncle from St. Bernard Parish can certainly confirm this, since he had to run out into the storm with flood waters surging in to snag his neighbor's fishing boat in time to rescue his family. They were out in the boat for a significant period of time during the storm.

Even the infamous breach of the 17th Street Canal that caused much of the flooding of the main parts of New Orleans occurred on the same day that Katrina struck, as did most other breaches. See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_levee ... ew_Orleans.

Also, New Orleans most certainly did experience wind and rain from Katrina. Cat 1 to Cat 2 winds occurred throughout the city.

I stand corrected on that. I still believe that the difference between NO and the MS Gulf Coast is that NO was a man-made distaster and the MS Gulf Coast wasn't. NO used to be in a much better position before the ACoE started their work down there. The wind and rain that NO got wasn't as bad as it has gotten before. The superdome also wasn't built that well so it was no surprise to me when holes showed up in it.

Of course my post earlier (although re-quoted) was taken out by mods - but seriously, complaining about being in a hurricane warning and not getting anything is just foolish. It's the same as being in a flash flood warning and being depressed that your house didn't get flooded away or being in a Tornado warning and complaining that your house is still around.

Weather warnings are there to warn people of the danger of what's possibly going to happen. They aren't always going to be perfect and I would rather have a few false alarms then alarms that never were around.

A lot of you guys in NC and VA dodged a bullet. The people up in MA, ME, NB, and NS may not be so lucky since they might get a more direct hit.

Just because the storm didn't effect you doesn't mean it was a dud.

Apparently my point got lost on at least one person. This post may get lost and deleted thanks to the mods even though I'm talking about Earl (and was in my last post).

I guess other posts which discuss other hurricanes, even in comparison, should be removed because they are off topic?

[ravyrn]

I stand corrected on that. I still believe that the difference between NO and the MS Gulf Coast is that NO was a man-made distaster and the MS Gulf Coast wasn't. NO used to be in a much better position before the ACoE started their work down there. The wind and rain that NO got wasn't as bad as it has gotten before. The superdome also wasn't built that well so it was no surprise to me when holes showed up in it.

Mods already warned of that topic in this thread....

"******"... but seriously, complaining about being in a hurricane warning and not getting anything is just foolish. It's the same as being in a flash flood warning and being depressed that your house didn't get flooded away or being in a Tornado warning and complaining that your house is still around.

Weather warnings are there to warn people of the danger of what's possibly going to happen. They aren't always going to be perfect and I would rather have a few false alarms then alarms that never were around.

The post in question I didn't view as a complaint. It was more along then lines of triumphant cockiness in reference to what could have been. Most of NC was very fortunate in regards to what "could have been." I'm sure time and money was spent in preparation and Earl was taken very seriously on its approach. Now that Earl is past them and brought little their way, let them have their 15 minutes Regarding warnings I agree and I'm sure they do too.

A lot of you guys in NC and VA dodged a bullet. The people up in MA, ME, NB, and NS may not be so lucky since they might get a more direct hit.

Just because the storm didn't effect you doesn't mean it was a dud.

Apparently my point got lost on at least one person. This post may get lost and deleted thanks to the mods even though I'm talking about Earl (and was in my last post).

I guess other posts which discuss other hurricanes, even in comparison, should be removed because they are off topic?

I think you took their posts too literally. Just relax some. I am sure they took this storm very seriously and still do in regards to those still in it's path up north. In regards to your attitude towards mod's and their requests, I suggest you change it and chill out.

[capepoint]

There must have been something keeping the upper winds from mixing down to the surface or else it was faulty data collection of a government conspiracy but this was not even a thunderstorm. This didnt even compare to a good tropical depression but yet they were screaming cat 4 yesterday morning.I had a max gust of 30 mph but looking up at the clouds they were screaming by very fast. Prehaps the plane was getting good data for flight level but it certainly never did anything like that at the surface. not even the bouys reported very much wind.
Don't get me wrong I am very thankful that nothing happened but it also makes me angry that I had to spend a bunch of money and do a lot of work for nothing. While I will be watching the next one you can bet that all of the hype this one recieved will result in folks ignoring the next one. The media does not help when they hype it up and start suggesting that the storm will be worse that expected.

[ravyrn]

BTW UpTheCreek, in regards to our Earl Preparations disagreement, it turns out you were right, and I'm glad for it! Hopefully those up north of yall share the same fortune!

[HurrMark]

If Earl continues with his current presentation, Cape Cod and Nantucket could be more fortunate than the OBX in regards to what could have been. I think Nova Scotia could be the only location at great risk in the CONUS and even that is questionable given the current weakening trend.

Nova Scotia isn't in the CONUS...although some people might wish otherwise

[CapeCod1995]

what's the chance in percent that cape cod will have a landfall tonight?

[artist]

wow! Earl's center has really pulled away from shore. Thank goodness he did. I can't imagine what it could have been, if he hadn't.

[ravyrn]

Nova Scotia isn't in the CONUS...although some people might wish otherwise

LOL touche`!!! Will correct that in my post It's too early forgive me

[AlabamaDave]

There must have been something keeping the upper winds from mixing down to the surface or else it was faulty data collection of a government conspiracy but this was not even a thunderstorm. This didnt even compare to a good tropical depression but yet they were screaming cat 4 yesterday morning.I had a max gust of 30 mph but looking up at the clouds they were screaming by very fast. Prehaps the plane was getting good data for flight level but it certainly never did anything like that at the surface. not even the bouys reported very much wind.
Don't get me wrong I am very thankful that nothing happened but it also makes me angry that I had to spend a bunch of money and do a lot of work for nothing. While I will be watching the next one you can bet that all of the hype this one recieved will result in folks ignoring the next one. The media does not help when they hype it up and start suggesting that the storm will be worse that expected.

Yeah, but Beaufort is substantially West of Cape Hatteras, and the storm passed pretty far East of there. I don't think Beaufort was ever in the true line of fire with this hurricane barring a westward track shift. There could very well be significant winds right around the eye, which never came very close to the shoreline. Not sure whether any buoys have been in the path of the core of the storm as it has passed offshore of NC. Seems like weakening storms often produce less than impressive winds...

[THead]

All the NC people, I truly understand how you wanted a little more excitement out of Earl, that's why most of us are here, we love tracking and watching these storms, but there's a fine line between a little excitement and spending the next week with a chainsaw in your hands! I'm going to look on the bright side for you all....its Friday before a long holiday weekend, and you won't need to be using a bunch of Coleman gear and eating MRE's all weekend! Hope you all enjoy the holiday, and hopefully everyone else in Earl's path can do the same after he passes...

[ravyrn]

what's the chance in percent that cape cod will have a landfall tonight?

I can't find a landfall chance atm, but here's a ts-force winds probability map.



According to that 70-90% chance of tropical storm force winds. But it's a bit old as it still has the center ESE of Hatteras.

Click here for the link I used to provide that image and check it in a few hours. I think it should update at 11am EST.

[rosethornil]

This didn't even compare to a good tropical depression but yet they were screaming cat 4 yesterday morning.I had a max gust of 30 mph but looking up at the clouds they were screaming by very fast. Perhaps the plane was getting good data for flight level but it certainly never did anything like that at the surface.

Cape Point, that's what I was trying to articulate (and apparently didn't do a very good job). Pre-hurricane, I spent about $150 in supplies, cleaned up the yard, came up with a plan and place for emergency evacuation, etc. Guess I'm all ready for Gaston?

I've lived within five blocks of the Elizabeth River and within 10 miles of the Virginia Beach oceanfront for 38 of my 51 years, and have experienced many, many hurricanes up close and personal (including one emergency evacuation through flooded areas and partially washed-out roads).

Perhaps I've come to rely too heavily on those forecasts - for good and for bad - and maybe that's the takeaway lesson for me. Forecasts are science-based predictions based on past behavior, and they have a few limitations.

My thoughts and prayers will now turn to the people up north. I hope Earl remains wussified for their sakes.

Thanks for all the helpful comments and insights here. I learned a whole lot about weather, and it's been enlightening!

Rose in Norfolk

PS. I should have mentioned that I'm also unspeakably relieved that my beautiful old house is still a beautiful old house!

[ravyrn]

Cape Point, that's what I was trying to articulate (and apparently didn't do a very good job). Pre-hurricane, I spent about $150 in supplies, cleaned up the yard, came up with a plan and place for emergency evacuation, etc. Guess I'm all ready for Gaston?

Sorry, I know what you meant by "cleaned up the yard" but just the quote made me lol in relation to storm preparations hahaha

[CapeCod1995]

Thanks ravyrn, cnn just said earl is as big as texas! The outer bands stretch to just east of the Great Lakes. I've been in a hurricane warning since yesterday afternoon. The Ssagamore and Bourne Bridges might close soon. They said they will close if there are chances of 70 MPH+ winds. So that's what I'm asking now. What are the chances of 70 MPH+ winds for Western Cape Cod.

[ravyrn]

Thanks ravyrn, cnn just said earl is as big as texas! The outer bands stretch to just east of the Great Lakes. I've been in a hurricane warning since yesterday afternoon. The Ssagamore and Bourne Bridges might close soon. They said they will close if there are chances of 70 MPH+ winds. So that's what I'm asking now. What are the chances of 70 MPH+ winds for Western Cape Cod.

Some of Earl's outflow boundaries are far to his west and north. However, Earl's area of wind and rain are significantly minute in comparison to the outflow displayed in cloud cover.

Regarding your question, I'm not qualified to give you the advice you're looking for and I apologize for that. Hopefully a pro met or someone with more experience than myself can chime in for you.

[CapeCod1995]

also if you've been in a hurricane or know the answer to the question, can you see the circulation of the clouds just by looking up and see the counter-clockwise flow in your sky?

[ravyrn]

also if you've been in a hurricane or know the answer to the question, can you see the circulation of the clouds just by looking up and see the counter-clockwise flow in your sky?

Yes. Especially if you have low level clouds over you from a tropical cyclone. Right now you would likely have an easterly - ese flow in your area.