ATL: EX Tropical Depression FIVE - Models

[Ivanhater]

Well HWRF is more aggressive..ramps up to a Cat 2 Hurricane

[Stormcenter]

Ivanhater that's pretty serious change for the HWRF.
I'm not buying it but maybe it sees possible improving
conditions for TD5.

[ROCK]

what is the HWRF looking at?

[KWT]

Yeah the GFS still wants to push this back into the Gulf again, most curious!

HWRF/GFDL still going for some decent strengthening in the last 12-18hrs before landfall but the way it looks right now, that maybe very optimistic!

[cycloneye]

12z Tropical Models

SHIP doesn't go to Tropical Storm strengh before a landfall.

Code: Select all

857
WHXX01 KWBC 111246
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1246 UTC WED AUG 11 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE (AL052010) 20100811 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100811  1200   100812  0000   100812  1200   100813  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    27.5N  86.4W   28.4N  87.8W   29.3N  89.3W   30.1N  90.1W
BAMD    27.5N  86.4W   28.8N  88.3W   29.9N  89.7W   31.0N  90.2W
BAMM    27.5N  86.4W   28.7N  87.9W   29.7N  88.9W   30.7N  89.2W
LBAR    27.5N  86.4W   28.6N  88.2W   29.6N  89.7W   30.7N  90.6W
SHIP        25KTS          22KTS          21KTS          26KTS
DSHP        25KTS          22KTS          21KTS          26KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100813  1200   100814  1200   100815  1200   100816  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    30.9N  91.1W   33.0N  91.9W   33.5N  92.1W   32.8N  93.8W
BAMD    31.6N  90.1W   32.5N  88.6W   31.5N  86.7W   29.0N  87.3W
BAMM    31.5N  89.1W   32.3N  87.6W   31.5N  86.1W   29.7N  86.9W
LBAR    31.5N  91.2W   33.3N  91.1W   35.1N  88.7W   37.2N  84.0W
SHIP        33KTS          46KTS          57KTS          58KTS
DSHP        25KTS          27KTS          27KTS          28KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  27.5N LONCUR =  86.4W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR =  10KT
LATM12 =  26.0N LONM12 =  84.0W DIRM12 = 310DEG SPDM12 =   7KT
LATM24 =  25.6N LONM24 =  83.5W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   75NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD =  175NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[KFDM Meteorologist]

12Z GFS brings it west again...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_024l.gif

[Wx_Warrior]

That run will inspire some folks.....

[Wx_Warrior]

[ROCK]

I am not inspired... time to go back to the long range model thread and look at the 384hr GFS....

[Brent]

I am not inspired... time to go back to the long range model thread and look at the 384hr GFS....

Indeed! Where's the next phantom hurricane?

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I am not inspired... time to go back to the long range model thread and look at the 384hr GFS....

GFS= Good For Something

[South Texas Storms]

does the 12z euro bring td5 inland and then back out into the gulf and redevelop it and then bring it into texas? or is it showing another different system impacting us?

[KFDM Meteorologist]

No. Brings it Inland, what's left of it.

[Wx_Warrior]

Probably referring to this?

[ROCK]

The EURO brings whats left of it into the TX/LA border area....swings it around for another go and into central LA.....weak reflection....doesnt matter...its just entertaining...

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Decent little rainmaker thats about all.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Probably referring to this?

In the extended the EURO hints at possible development along a frontal boundary.

[Steve]

>>Decent little rainmaker thats about all.

For sure. I got soaked twice by leaving my umbrella in the car. Most of the city is still in the 1.5-2" range which isn't bad. Its' not too breezy, but we've been getting intermittant rain off and on today (nothing worth taking photos or videotaping). We ought to see some welcome rainfall all over the Gulf South and Florida to help break up the recent heat spells. Hey, nothing wrong with that, and since it's still a trackable feature, the models should provide some comic relief with the remnants.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

As the 700 and 500 MB axis shifts west we'll get into the showers Thursday here in SE Texas.

[South Texas Storms]

yeah its in the 240 hour forecast. maybe it is development off a frontal boundary.