ATL: Ex-DANIELLE - Models

[wzrgirl1]

Looking at the 06Z GFS run, three interesting things of note:

1) Future Danielle is an absolute monster, major cane in the Western Atlantic

2) Ridging is rapidly building in down the Eastern Seaboard and Northern Western Atlantic at the end of the run, which would shut the door on a recurve in a hurry.

3) TD 6 does not see any weakness imposed by the ULL within 72 hours, in fact it moves generally W to WNW.

At this point the NHC seems pretty confident on a fish track, even w/ the mentioning of the models becoming divergent. The NHC doesn't even hint that 95L will bend back west. It appears the CA trough will be strong enough and 95L will gain enough latitude that even if it gets left behind it will be unlikely to reach the EC.

Not yet anyway. Still a tad bit too early to call it either way. I hope you are right though!

[AtlanticWind]

Looking at the 06Z GFS run, three interesting things of note:

1) Future Danielle is an absolute monster, major cane in the Western Atlantic

2) Ridging is rapidly building in down the Eastern Seaboard and Northern Western Atlantic at the end of the run, which would shut the door on a recurve in a hurry.

3) TD 6 does not see any weakness imposed by the ULL within 72 hours, in fact it moves generally W to WNW.

At this point the NHC seems pretty confident on a fish track, even w/ the mentioning of the models becoming divergent. The NHC doesn't even hint that 95L will bend back west. It appears the CA trough will be strong enough and 95L will gain enough latitude that even if it gets left behind it will be unlikely to reach the EC.

The NHC does not mention anything beyond the 5 day forecast nor should they at this point

[Ikester]

The poster above beat me to it. For some reason, the NHC just isn't buying the west track. They mention nothing about it in the discussion but yet harp on a deepening trough on the eastern seaboard. I wonder why? It is clear that the model trend over night was a bit weaker and further west (in some cases MUCH further west). I suspect if the trend continues, we're gonna start seeing that cone shifting to the left. Keep in mind the TCVN model (consensus) is what the NHC goes with in making a cone. If the ships, Bams or any other model shows a fish, regardless of global models, the cone will stay parked where it's at.

[plasticup]

At this point the NHC seems pretty confident on a fish track, even w/ the mentioning of the models becoming divergent. The NHC doesn't even hint that 95L will bend back west. It appears the CA trough will be strong enough and 95L will gain enough latitude that even if it gets left behind it will be unlikely to reach the EC.

With respect to this new ridge, we are talking about the models at days 6-7. For starters, they are highly uncertain, and the NHC only looks 5 days out. Even if the ridge did build ahead of a recurve, it's impact may be ambiguous. The storm could recurve in front of it, behind it, the storm could stall and wait for the ridge to pass, or be sheered apart.

At 7 days out, there is nothing concrete enough for the NHC to make predictions on. But we sure do enjoy the speculation!

[Blown Away]

The NHC does not mention anything beyond the 5 day forecast nor should they at this point

I agree w/ you, but if there is high uncertainty w/ the forecast they will usually mention something. Right now the way the NHC is writing the advisories the recurve seems likely. Things can change for sure!

[gatorcane]

The NHC does not mention anything beyond the 5 day forecast nor should they at this point

I agree w/ you, but if there is high uncertainty w/ the forecast they will usually mention something. Right now the way the NHC is writing the advisories the recurve seems likely. Things can change for sure!

Blown_away this part of the disco suggests high uncertainty if you ask me. They are not committing either to a recurve or a bend back west at this point not just because the model guidance has slowed but because an increasing model spread. I can guarantee that 00Z Euro track that bends back west has helped to contribute to this line in the discussion:

THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK IS SLOWED AT LATER FORECAST TIMES AS A RESULT OF A SLOWER TREND IN THE GUIDANCE AND INCREASING MODEL SPREAD.

[Blown Away]

The NHC does not mention anything beyond the 5 day forecast nor should they at this point

I agree w/ you, but if there is high uncertainty w/ the forecast they will usually mention something. Right now the way the NHC is writing the advisories the recurve seems likely. Things can change for sure!

Blown_away this part of the disco suggests high uncertainty if you ask me. They are not committing either to a recurve or a bend back west at this point not just because the model guidance has slowed but because an increasing model spread. I can guarantee that 00Z Euro track that bends back west has contributed to this line in the discussion:

THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK IS SLOWED AT LATER FORECAST TIMES AS A RESULT OF A SLOWER TREND IN THE GUIDANCE AND INCREASING MODEL SPREAD.

Good points, just use to the NHC addressing model runs that are significantly different from the forecast track. Maybe they are waiting for a little more confidence before changing their advisry tone. You mentioned Frances, very similar rate now!
FRANCES 2004 CONE:

[CrazyC83]

I'm thinking it will be to the west of forecast as well, probably pushing to the northeast of the Leewards. I think it will cross 20N at about 60W. However, a stronger storm tends to push poleward? I think Danielle will be a major hurricane at that point.

[ronjon]

BA, the NHC isn't going to discuss conditions after 5 days and you see where the storm is at that time. Here's a good hint when the NHC feels the track becomes uncertain after 5 days or near 5 days - they slow it down. That also fits with the synoptics since a storm that may change direction will often slow down or if the steering currents become weak (i.e. uncertain) it'll certainly slow down.

[gatorcane]

BA, the NHC isn't going to discuss conditions after 5 days and you see where the storm is at that time. Here's a good hint when the NHC feels the track becomes uncertain after 5 days or near 5 days - they slow it down. That also fits with the synoptics since a storm that may change direction will often slow down or if the steering currents become weak (i.e. uncertain) it'll certainly slow down.

Have you seen the latest disco, they seem more bullish on it not recurving, more so than this board where alot of us think it will recurve!

[abajan]

Nobody is out of the woods yet...that include the GOM, E. Coast and Bermuda.

Well, IMHO the Windward Islands (the southern part of the Lesser Antilles) are pretty much in the clear (knock wood).

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the system finally shows up on the NAM at far right of image (12Z NAM), Bermuda High hanging on to the NNW of it, trough pushing off the Eastern Seaboard:

[UpTheCreek]

BA, the NHC isn't going to discuss conditions after 5 days and you see where the storm is at that time. Here's a good hint when the NHC feels the track becomes uncertain after 5 days or near 5 days - they slow it down. That also fits with the synoptics since a storm that may change direction will often slow down or if the steering currents become weak (i.e. uncertain) it'll certainly slow down.

Have you seen the latest disco, they seem more bullish on it not recurving, more so than this board where alot of us think it will recurve!

From the NHC 1100 discussion:
WITH THE RECENT NORTHWARD MOTION...THE SMOOTHED INITIAL MOTION IS
ROUGHLY 310/10. ONCE THE DEPRESSION ESCAPES THE INFLUENCE OF THE
DISTURBANCE TO ITS NORTHEAST...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG
26N SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH
INCREASING FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS. BY DAYS 4 AND
5 THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK FORECAST DEPENDING ON
HOW THE MID-LATITUDE LONGWAVE PATTERN EVOLVES IN RELATION TO WHEN
THE DEPRESSION ACTUALLY BEGINS MOVING WESTWARD. THE GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH NEAR 45W
BY DAY 4...WHICH SHOULD BE TOO FAR EAST TO INDUCE SIGNIFICANT
RECURVATURE. THIS PATTERN...HOWEVER...SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
SLOW DOWN A LITTLE BY DAYS 4 AND 5 AS IT BECOMES TRAPPED TO THE
SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED
A LITTLE SOUTH AND WEST BY DAY 5...VERY CLOSE TO THE GFS...GFDL
...AND HWRF MODELS...AND LIES A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCN.

[dixiebreeze]

I think, IMO, the NHC is in no hurry to frighten the Eastern U.S., even though there is increasing indications TD 6 is moving toward a more westerly solution, due to an impending ridge and other factors. The latest disco certainly signals that.

[Aric Dunn]

And So the Flag Flapping continues..

[ROCK]

TVCN is a blend of most of our major globals...not so much the dynamics.....if the trend in the models are west then the NHC will have to shift....they have no choice.....by the looks of TD6 right now its not behaving according to plan right now....

[x-y-no]

Well ... the weakness before 50w doesn't looks so pronounced in the 12z GFS run ...

[ROCK]

[SFLcane]

Looks like its recurving around 50w on the 12z GFS

[ROCK]

not in a big hurry...wnw....