ATL: FIONA - Models

[ROCK]

that a good shift south for some...still another one up the EC....you split the difference then a Jeanne track is not all that crazy....lets see what the operational has for us later....

[gatorcane]

I've noticed the ecmf ensemble means have pretty consistently been showing solutions very near Florida or just east near the Bahamas.

Maybe this system will not even develop at all especially as it seems to be losing organization as of late.

[Ivanhater]

Here is the Euro Ensemble I posted last night...Most take it into the Central Gulf after hitting SoFlo

[gatorcane]

12z gfs shows 97l moving through the same area that Earl moved through - ne leewards

But it doesn't look to be as strong as Earl when it moves through.

[gatorcane]

Looking at the 12z gfs, 97l appears it will follow Earl into the weakness and miss the conus.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Thats the GFS though. Sure dont trust it especially that far out.

[emeraldislencguy]

so do yall think it will still develop
do yall think the percentage will go down or up at 2

[gatorcane]

12Z Canadian takes the same path as GFS east of the Bahamas...but then it slows and starts bending towards the WNW and intensifying.....

[Ivanhater]

[quote="gatorcane"]12Z Canadian takes the same path as GFS east of the Bahamas...but then it slows and starts bending towards the WNW and intensifying.....

Notice it gets in the Caribbean for a bit now before curving out. It's in the middle of a westward shift. It has come to the point where you can just about bet the next run will continue to shift south.

[NEFlorida]

Certainly hope this doesn't pan out!

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 0082900!!/

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro 48 hours

[Ivanhater]

72 hours

[Ivanhater]

96 hours...very close to PR and a bit SW of yesterdays 12z run

[WeatherEmperor]

I have a stupid question Michael. Have you noticed any differences in speed with 97L/Fiona on this 12Z run compared to last night's 00Z run?

[Vortex]

Here's comes the euro..Let's see if the trend continues...its just a matter of time before it locks on to a particular area in the long term and at that point we may have a problem...

[Ivanhater]

I have a stupid question Michael. Have you noticed any differences in speed with 97L/Fiona on this 12Z run compared to last night's 00Z run?

Not really....BTW...it is A LOT further SW even compared to last night's run

96 hours 12z run today



120 hours last night

[Ivanhater]

120 hours..much further south than last night

[Scorpion]

Southern trend continues yet again..

[Vortex]

not a good set up for florida/bahamas...heights building to the north of fiona as early exits and very favorable conditionas aloft....

[Ivanhater]

144 hours hugging the Cuban coast..looks like a SoFlo Gulf run