ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[cycloneye]

Plane going to base after more than 10 hours. Aplause to that crew.

[HURAKAN]

30 miles to the south of Alex's landfall point you find La Pesca, MX

[KWT]

That northwest shear and dry air on monday probably kept Alex from becoming a major. Wow.

More then likely that is right, the shear and dry air probably prevented a 110-115kts hurricane, esp as Alex has only just finally sorted out its inner core...

Hurakan, I don't think those islands are really going to much to stop Alex sadly, of course the land just to its west will be its killer though....

[dizzyfish]

BRO radar looks like the eye is just touching the islands.

[gone2beach]

HURAKAN,do you know the population of that town?

It seems to be out in the ocean from what I found on Google maps, I sure hope none of the people are there...pull in for a closer look...

http://maps.google.com/maps?q=population%20of%20La%20Yegua%2C%20MX&hl=en&rlz=1T4GZAZ_enUS348US381&um=1&ie=UTF-8&sa=N&tab=wl

[HURAKAN]

[CrazyC83]

Looks like 9 pm CDT (0200 UTC) will be the landfall time, right at La Yegua. I would put the intensity at 90 kt with a pressure of 946mb personally.

[MGC]

There is still a chance that a lower central pressure will be measured. I'm sure there are several chasers in the area with their trusty barometer. I doubt Alex falls apart the next hour and could still intensify a little.....MGC

[TexasF6]

Funny how Cantore never ever winds up where the REAL storm blows ashore!! I'm just saying....Landfall looks to be 849pm CDT across La Yegua Mexico.....

[NEXRAD]

Looks like 9 pm CDT (0200 UTC) will be the landfall time, right at La Yegua. I would put the intensity at 90 kt with a pressure of 946mb personally.

Agreed. Depending on any surface obs across coastal Mexico's NE Gulf Coast, there's a possibility of a slightly higher intensity, but I'm not counting on it.

- Jay
South Florida

[bob rulz]

Wow, just incredible. If we didn't have recon to go into this storm it would certainly be classified as a category 4 right now! It's amazing that the winds never really caught up.

[neospaceblue]

Cantore just made a BAD historical reference.

He just said HURRICANE Allison caused the flooding in Houston lol

From what he said a couple of minutes ago, he may have confused the '01 Allison with the '95 Allison, since he said something about "Allison back in 1995."

[CrazyC83]

A picture is worth a thousand words...Simply...Spectacular. Alex must be enjoying this summer evening.

[HURAKAN]

141
WTNT61 KNHC 010158
TCUAT1
HURRICANE ALEX TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
900 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010
...ALEX MAKES LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND
AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
THE EYE OF HURRICANE ALEX MADE LANDFALL AROUND 9 PM CDT...0200 UTC
ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE MUNICIPALITY OF SOTO LA MARINA...
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS AT LANDFALL WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...A
CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.

SUMMARY OF 900 PM CDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 97.7W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM N OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

[HURAKAN]

Landfall

[lonelymike]

La Yeuga is a lovely little fishing village. Hope its not damaged too bad.

[littlevince]

This region is partly covered by Google Streetview, so if you want to see how the area is, just drag the streetview icon over the road
streetview

http://maps.google.com/maps?q=Brownsvil ... 83&t=h&z=9

[CrazyC83]

One thing to remember: unless those villages get swamped to a high death toll, we may have to wait and see what the next Alex does in 2016...

[bob rulz]

This area is very sparsely populated, I'd be surprised if there's more than a few deaths.

[CrazyC83]

If anyone a couple days ago thought the pressure would get down to the mid to high 940s, they would be laughed at.