ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

[Squarethecircle]

[pepeavilenho]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 982.2mb/ 72.2kt[/size]

[abajan]

It’s beginning to acquire that “fisty” appearance, signaling that a period of intensification is underway:

[Aquawind]

he said "fisty".. he he and I agree..

[Squarethecircle]

[Macrocane]

Based on the latest IR and microwave imagery I think we already have the 4th hurricane of the season.

[hurricaneCW]

Looks like all systems go for Igor tonight and tomorrow. Probably going to up to a Cat 2 tomorrow, eye wall becoming more pronounced, large area of moist area protecting Igor from the very dry air to the NW. Warm waters only going to get warmer and low shear. Could even rapidly intensify into a major tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

The fourth hurricane of the 2010 Atlantc season will be officially classified at 11 PM EDT.

00z Best Track

AL, 11, 2010091200, , BEST, 0, 176N, 417W, 65, 992, HU

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[OuterBanker]

Thinking and hoping fish. Just a little nervous though. Remember no met or poster thought that Earl would make it as far west as it did. At his point just about everyon had Earl lift out by 60 west. Now the thinking is the same for Igor.

Earl also exited Africa at a high latititude, thought to be too high a lat to stand a chance.

Fish written all over it.

Until I see him turn off I'm going to pay attention.

[Vortex]

I'm with you outerbanker

[mf_dolphin]

If Igor was to miss the weakness the picture would be pretty ugly indeed. Let's hope that we're still playing follow the leader.

[Vortmax1]

Miss the weakness?
Has anyone really looked at the spaghettis??


https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... tab2200108

[cycloneye]

For me and the other fellow NE Caribbean friends,the 20N line is the guide for us. If it passes below 20N-60W,then we may see effects as it will be big in size.If it passes north of that position,pretty much we are in the clear. Lets see what occurs.

[fasterdisaster]

I'm not sure Igor will be a fish as it looks like he could impact Bermuda. It's rare but there have been major hurricanes to hit there, the last of which was Fabian in 2003 (which was retired).

[Swimdude]

Miss the weakness?
Has anyone really looked at the spaghettis??


https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... tab2200108

That's all well and good, but as we all discovered with Earl, computer models are not perfect by any means. (Most of us already knew that, Earl just provided additional proof.) Besides, this is surprisingly similar to how the models appeared with Earl--tightly clustered with a recurve well away from the CONUS. Well, that wasn't what happened, was it? Igor needs to be watched.

[Vortmax1]

As of the 5 PM advisory Cyclone...Igor was located here:

Location: 17.4°N 41.2°W
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH


I understand Cyclone...but you have to have a little faith when dealing with these storms as well.

I'm sure you will see the gradual turning as this is still many, many miles from doing so.

[Vortmax1]

but as we all discovered with Earl, computer models are not perfect by any means.

Please refresh my memory regarding Earl.
I don't know what you mean.

[mf_dolphin]

As of the 5 PM advisory Cyclone...Igor was located here:

Location: 17.4°N 41.2°W
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH


I understand Cyclone...but you have to have a little faith when dealing with these storms as well.

I'm sure you will see the gradual turning as this is still many, many miles from doing so.

Faith has nothing to do with it. I never said I expected it to miss the weakness but as long as it's a possibility then people need to pay attention. To suggest otherwise or to dismiss the possibility is foolish IMO.

[Vortmax1]

I am most certainly not dismissing that possibility Dolphin!
And I am not a foolish person either.

We either have forecasts to work with or we're all in the dark.
I think I'll go with what the trusted sources are saying which is what I was saying all along.

[mf_dolphin]

I took your response to my post as very dismissive. In fact you suggested by your very question that I hadn't looked at the plots. Believe me I've watched these storms for many years and I've also watched the spaghetti plots go nuts. The UKM at leasts suggests there's a possibility of another solution. While I don't think it's right, until I see the turn some to pass and the forecasts start to verify I'll keep watching.