ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[myred]

Goodbye Alex 2010, It has been one heck of a ride watching you develope, thrive and now the end is near. You hung in there thru thick and thin. Thank you for not going to the northen Gulf. You will be remembered by many.

I just thought he deserved a few words,
Myred

[Gustywind]

What a story with this amazing cane Alex! From a fairly well organized and very active twave who had brought strong tstorms and very heavy rains in Guadeloupe 12 days ago... impressive for a month of...JUNE
Staf safe and dry for all of you my carib friends of Mexico and the others from the
Gustywind

[KBBOCA]

Thanks to all for the great pix and discussion. I had to be offline last night, so it's been nice this morning to catch up on the last 15 pages or so of this thread. I REALLY appreciate all those who take the time to search out, share and archive great photos.

Hope Alex hasn't been too damaging and that there was no further loss of life. It was incredible to watch him ramp up just before landfall. Quite dramatic, and a great call by the NHC. They nailed this storm.

[bob rulz]

MSNBC has reported at least 3 deaths in northeast Mexico so far.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Jagno]

I just wanted to thank our pro's and experienced weather buffs here like Ivan who spend countless hours keeping us updated with discussions, opinions and some really cool graphics. The knowledge helps to ease the fear for those in it's potential path. S2k is the greatest and would not be possible without the owner and mods.

[thetruesms]

Wow, I was torn last night on whether to go to my softball game or to skip it and catch Alex's landfall . . . looks like I missed quite the drama! Now, if only our last-inning rally had gone as well as Alex's quest to reach cat 2, it would have made my scraped up leg worth it

[Macrocane]

Alex is still well organized after 10+ hours inland, it must be producing heavy rainfall in Mexico.

[Fourman]

I have been lurking this whole week and your insights have been very helpful. I am currently deployed with TXSG in McAllen, TX assisting with shelters. Watching this board was great it gave me about one extra day to prepare before I was ordered to head south.

I look forward to reading your insights in on the next one.

[cycloneye]

I have been lurking this whole week and your insights have been very helpful. I am currently deployed with TXSG in McAllen, TX assisting with shelters. Watching this board was great it gave me about one extra day to prepare before I was ordered to head south.

I look forward to reading your insights in on the next one.

Thank you for those words. Lets see when the next one forms.

[HURAKAN]

Center still visible ... wow

[HURAKAN]

Jeff Masters:

Alex's bizarre behavior
Alex had several rather remarkable features I've never seen in a hurricane. Firstly, it underwent an eyewall replacement cycle as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Usually, we don't see the inner eyewall collapse and an eyewall replacement cycle occur until a hurricane reaches Category 3 strength. I've seen it happen on occasion to a Category 2 storm, but never a Category 1. Secondly, after Alex's inner 9-mile diameter eyewall collapsed at 10am EDT yesterday morning, an outer spiral band began to become the new eyewall. Winds in this outer spiral band/new eywall increased as the day progressed, as typically happens in an eyewall replacement cycle. However, part way through that process, Alex suddenly reversed course, and was able to build a small inner eyewall with a 12-mile diameter that was completed by landfall. I've never seen a hurricane change its mind in the middle of an eyewall replacement cycle and build an inner eyewall so fast. Finally, Alex had an unusually weak winds, considering how low the pressure was. The pressure was more typical of a hurricane one Saffir-Simpson category stronger than what the surface winds suggested.

Link - http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1531

[HURAKAN]

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUL 01 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

HURRICANE ALEX WAS THE ONLY TROPICAL CYCLONE OBSERVED DURING THE
MONTH OF JUNE AND THE FIRST JUNE ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE SINCE
1995. IT WAS ALSO THE FIRST CATEGORY TWO JUNE HURRICANE SINCE 1966.
ON AVERAGE...A TROPICAL STORM OCCURS IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN IN JUNE
EVERY OTHER YEAR...AND A HURRICANE ABOUT ONCE EVERY FIVE YEARS. ALEX
MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST IN THE MUNICIPALITY
OF SOTO LA MARINA LATE ON 30 JUNE AS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.

REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL CYCLONES...WHEN COMPLETED...ARE AT THE WEB
SITE OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...USE LOWER-CASE
LETTERS...HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/2010ATLAN.SHTML

SUMMARY TABLE

NAME DATES MAX WIND (MPH)
----------------------------------------------------
H ALEX 25 JUN- 105

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

Impressive photo taken by the crew of yesterday afternoon's mission inbound towards Alex.

[Portastorm]

I have been lurking this whole week and your insights have been very helpful. I am currently deployed with TXSG in McAllen, TX assisting with shelters. Watching this board was great it gave me about one extra day to prepare before I was ordered to head south.

I look forward to reading your insights in on the next one.

Thank YOU for your service to our state and to those in harm's way!

[thetruesms]

http://www.patricktmarsh.com/2010/06/da ... -landfall/

Yet another blog post on Alex - what stuck out to me was the discussion of a hurricane's structure on NEXRAD velocity products, which is interesting, and not terribly technical so it should be pretty accessible to everyone.

[bob rulz]

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUL 01 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

HURRICANE ALEX WAS THE ONLY TROPICAL CYCLONE OBSERVED DURING THE
MONTH OF JUNE AND THE FIRST JUNE ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE SINCE
1995. IT WAS ALSO THE FIRST CATEGORY TWO JUNE HURRICANE SINCE 1966.
ON AVERAGE...A TROPICAL STORM OCCURS IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN IN JUNE
EVERY OTHER YEAR...AND A HURRICANE ABOUT ONCE EVERY FIVE YEARS. ALEX
MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST IN THE MUNICIPALITY
OF SOTO LA MARINA LATE ON 30 JUNE AS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.

REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL CYCLONES...WHEN COMPLETED...ARE AT THE WEB
SITE OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...USE LOWER-CASE
LETTERS...HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/2010ATLAN.SHTML

SUMMARY TABLE

NAME DATES MAX WIND (MPH)
----------------------------------------------------
H ALEX 25 JUN- 105

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Speaking of which...does anybody know why they stopped giving summaries of each of the storms in the monthly weather reports? I miss those.

[brunota2003]

http://www.patricktmarsh.com/2010/06/day-181-hurricane-alex-nearing-landfall/

Yet another blog post on Alex - what stuck out to me was the discussion of a hurricane's structure on NEXRAD velocity products, which is interesting, and not terribly technical so it should be pretty accessible to everyone.

Here are a couple images for you, this is from GrLevel2 Analyst...one is the reflectivity in 3D mode, the other is the SRV in 3D mode as well.

Reflectivity:



SRV Velocity:

[HouTXmetro]

Can Alex make it intact to the Eastern Pacific?

[CrazyC83]

Can Alex make it intact to the Eastern Pacific?

Highly unlikely as mountains lie in the way.