WPAC: MEGI (1013/15W) - Tropical Depression

[P.K.]

CMA upgrade to a Super Typhoon.

WTPQ20 BABJ 170000 CCA
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SuperTY MEGI 1013 (1013) INITIAL TIME 170000 UTC
00HR 18.7N 127.6E 920HPA 60M/S
30KTS 300KM
50KTS 100KM
P12HR W 20KM/H
P+24HR 18.8N 122.8E 920HPA 60M/S
P+48HR 18.1N 119.6E 950HPA 42M/S
P+72HR 17.9N 117.1E 945HPA 48M/S
P+96HR 18.1N 114.9E 930HPA 50M/S
P+120HR 18.8N 113.3E 930HPA 50M/S=

[Infdidoll]

PAGASA is way out of sync here. Someone needs to give them a good smack.

fire the head!! lol...
seriously though, there is a huge huge difference between 160kph and 205kph... even if they say they're really prepared, if they aren't giving out correct information, there will still be huge problems...

and imo, upgrading this into "Super Typhoon" will help the public realize how serious this storm is...

I agree. To many people, the mph, kph, etc. means nothing. It's just another typhoon. However, when you add a punch to the title, calling it a super typhoon, it does tell those in the public who don't know as much about severe weather that they may want to take this a little more seriously. The average Joe looks at the weather report and says, "A typhoon is coming, here is where it will be going, and this when it will be here..." but I know there are a lot of people who don't know what I'm talking about when I mention the Saffir-Simpson scale. Those who have been through a few typhoons tend to shrug them off as nothing. Somehow, in the Philippines, I don't think the biggest problem is nonchalance, but lack of access to proper shelter. As seen in Jim's video, people were out playing in Mirinae (cat 2 that weakened to a tropical storm), but if you saw their shelters...it doesn't give much confidence as to how these people would survive in anything stronger.

[cebuboy]

I am surprised there is no evacuation advisory by NDCC: http://www.ndcc.gov.ph/, its not even looks updated!

[KatDaddy]

A massive feederband to the SE of MEGI feeding energy. RI still ongoing.

[supercane]

JMA 00Z 5-day:


Not a great MW image, but did catch eye. No signs of eyewall replacement yet:

[cebuboy]

I'm not too sure what PAGASA are up to here. This was literally just issued and is nowhere near what it really is.

TYPHOON “JUAN” UPDATE

AS OF 8:00 AM TODAY, 17 OCTOBER 2010, TYPHOON “JUAN” WAS LOCATED AT 570 KM EAST OF APARRI, CAGAYAN (18.7°N, 127.5°E).

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 160 KPH NEAR THE CENTER
GUSTINESS: UP TO 195 KPH
FORECAST MOVEMENT: WESTWARD
SPEED: 24 KPH
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE: 958 hPa

lol i know right??!!! the latest was 8am and it remains at 160kph! are they that oblivious?!?!
and i thought PAGASA has improved...

yeah thats what i thought also...

[supercane]

Pressure down to 908 mb on latest pass:


275
URPA12 PGUA 170121
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 16/23:39:30Z
B. 18 deg 38 min N
127 deg 30 min E
C. 700 mb 2280 m
D. 120 kt
E. 141 deg 6 nm
F. 247 deg 128 kt
G. 146 deg 6 nm
H. 908 mb
I. 12 C / 3054 m
J. 19 C / 3041 m
K. 14 C / NA
L. CLOSED EYE
M. C5
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF307 0630W MEGI OB 25
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 169 KT NE QUAD 23:42:50Z
OUTBOUND SFC WNDS 146 KTS
;

[RL3AO]

169kt FL + dropsonde shows 152kt at surface (00918 08652).

145 to 150kt (1-min) IMO.

[P.K.]

169kt FL is 132kts surface even with a ten min ave!

[Chacor]

VDM says 146 kt SFC outbound which translates to about 132 kt 10-min, too.

[StormingB81]

WOW! This is very scary! Hopefully the resident heed the warning!

[Chacor]

JTWC is up to a 140 knot super typhoon at 00z.

[RL3AO]

JTWC is up to a 140 knot super typhoon at 00z.

Still might be underestimating it a bit, but closer then PAGASA (duh).

[RobWESTPACWX]

PAGASA is way out of sync here. Someone needs to give them a good smack.

fire the head!! lol...
seriously though, there is a huge huge difference between 160kph and 205kph... even if they say they're really prepared, if they aren't giving out correct information, there will still be huge problems...

and imo, upgrading this into "Super Typhoon" will help the public realize how serious this storm is...

I agree. To many people, the mph, kph, etc. means nothing. It's just another typhoon. However, when you add a punch to the title, calling it a super typhoon, it does tell those in the public who don't know as much about severe weather that they may want to take this a little more seriously. The average Joe looks at the weather report and says, "A typhoon is coming, here is where it will be going, and this when it will be here..." but I know there are a lot of people who don't know what I'm talking about when I mention the Saffir-Simpson scale. Those who have been through a few typhoons tend to shrug them off as nothing. Somehow, in the Philippines, I don't think the biggest problem is nonchalance, but lack of access to proper shelter. As seen in Jim's video, people were out playing in Mirinae (cat 2 that weakened to a tropical storm), but if you saw their shelters...it doesn't give much confidence as to how these people would survive in anything stronger.

Yes! When people here that "super typhoon" it's like saying in the states a Cat 5 is headed towards you, people listen and they go O, this is going to be really bad. I think that would be safe. Also I think Pagasa should start increasing there signal force. A little early but I think it would be ok for Aparri and Santa Ana.

[hurricaneCW]

It may have been a very quiet season in the WPAC but they sure know how to serve up a typhoon. Our strongest storm, Igor, can not compete with MEGI.

[dwsqos2]

A study of two does not a science make, but I'm going to guess based on reconnaisance observations in Jangmi of 2008 and Megi that the upper end of the JMA's Dvorak scale (i.e. t numbers greater than or equal to 6.5) is too conservative and will in general underestimate the intensity of storms in this basin even accounting for ten-minute winds.

[RobWESTPACWX]

It may have been a very quiet season in the WPAC but they sure know how to serve up a typhoon. Our strongest storm, Igor, can not compete with MEGI.

And the strongest storm has to head towards an area that will likely take the most damage from the storm, this area of the PI is not the best infrastructure, in other words its down right terrible. That makes this storm that much more dangerous.

[phwxenthusiast]

Yes! When people here that "super typhoon" it's like saying in the states a Cat 5 is headed towards you, people listen and they go O, this is going to be really bad. I think that would be safe. Also I think Pagasa should start increasing there signal force. A little early but I think it would be ok for Aparri and Santa Ana.

another thing i don't like with PAGASA... signal no 3 is only issued 18hrs prior to the storm landfall... that doesn't give you much time to prepare does it??

[HURAKAN]

very impressive

[RobWESTPACWX]

No, I can see waiting if the cone or track error was really wide, but for the past 3 days the track has been pointing at NE Luzon. I think this is one of the best track fcst in a long time on that note, and they should be issuing no 3 by now. I don't work at Pagasa (although was thinking about it applying, wife said no way in heck..).