ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

77 kt FL supports Hurricane Paula. I'd be conservative and say it is 55 kt closer to the SFMR and central pressure.

That reading is rain contaminated.

The flag is "03" which refers to SFMR only. No flag on the flight level wind.

77 kt at flight level = 69 kt at the surface. However, with no signs of an eye and the pressure the way it is, I would assume that such is an over-estimate.

[Ptarmigan]

NHC has not issued the first advisory on Paula.

[cyclonic chronic]

has the NHC ever gone from disturbance straight to hurricane? or do they always go in order from t.s. to hurricane for continuity?

[AdamFirst]

Gotta be a mistake.

MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 77 KT NE QUAD 19:27:50Z

According to the vortex message, it's not.

[CrazyC83]

has the NHC ever gone from disturbance straight to hurricane? or do they always go in order from t.s. to hurricane for continuity?

In this situation, I don't think so. They have at least once or twice only for systems previously extratropical with hurricane-force winds. Not for a storm rapidly deepening.

[gatorcane]

NHC has not issued the first advisory on Paula.

very odd. Not sure what they are waiting for.

[Ptarmigan]

has the NHC ever gone from disturbance straight to hurricane? or do they always go in order from t.s. to hurricane for continuity?

I know in 1870, Hurricane One, hit Biloxi, Mississippi and it was the only time that storm was recorded, as a hurricane.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1870_Atlan ... ane_season

[hurricaneCW]

Don't they issue advisories at 5PM eastern time.

[Ptarmigan]

77 kt at flight level = 69 kt at the surface. However, with no signs of an eye and the pressure the way it is, I would assume that such is an over-estimate.

Could of ran into a microburst at the time.

[x-y-no]

77 kt at flight level = 69 kt at the surface. However, with no signs of an eye and the pressure the way it is, I would assume that such is an over-estimate.

I agree - but this does indicate an intensifying system.

[fci]

NHC has not issued the first advisory on Paula.

very odd. Not sure what they are waiting for.

Probably coordinating watches and warnings with Governments and then issue advisory at 5:00.

[Ptarmigan]

I agree - but this does indicate an intensifying system.

I wonder if recon ever ran into this with Mitch and Wilma.

[SouthFloridawx]

[Aric Dunn]

Its not a hurricane but it does seem to be slowly intensifying even being so close to land. later tonight and tomorrow as it moves away should allow it to strengthen a little more steadily.

[CrazyC83]

NHC has not issued the first advisory on Paula.

very odd. Not sure what they are waiting for.

Probably coordinating watches and warnings with Governments and then issue advisory at 5:00.

Probably would require a Hurricane Watch for the Belize and Yucatan coasts.

[jlauderdal]

NHC has not issued the first advisory on Paula.

very odd. Not sure what they are waiting for.

5 PM Eastern

[gatorcane]

Same place Wilma made a stop at 5 years ago, though likely this won't be as strong as Wilma when it reaches the Yucatan.

[Sanibel]

Pre-Dvorak was shouting rapid development over a day ago.

[P.K.]

77 kt at flight level = 69 kt at the surface. However, with no signs of an eye and the pressure the way it is, I would assume that such is an over-estimate.

Careful, they are only flying at about 400m right now. The reduction is nearer to 80% than 90% so it is more like 60kts surface.

[ronjon]

Naysayers wanna get some of that crow now?

I'll take mine with extra hot sauce, bones, feathers, and all.
Hmmm, cyclogenesis without model support yesterday. Mother nature still sometimes trumps computers.