ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE (04L)

[MGC]

Almost looks like the TS has slowed down a good bit.....MGC

[Sanibel]

That dry air curl into the center should keep it down.

[RL3AO]

Guys. This isn't Humberto II

[tolakram]

For those watching the radar, it's moving NW still. The center convection 'appears' to be reforming over and over at it drifts NW.

[alan1961]

lucky lucky panhandle, dodged a hurricane if this had a day or two longer in the gulf, on visible animation it looks like feeders bands start to organise on the last frame or two.

[tolakram]

Nice view on the visible.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... height=768

Convection really building around the partially exposed center.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042009
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009

...CLAUDETTE APPROACHING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER EASTWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.6 WEST OR ABOUT
40 MILES... 60 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT
120 MILES...190 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.

CLAUDETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...AND ON THIS
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL MOVE ONSHORE IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE LATER TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
PRIOR TO LANDFALL. A MARINE TOWER...STATION SGOF1...LOCATED ABOUT
25 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA RECENTLY REPORTED A
10-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 51 MPH...82 KM/HR.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THE
BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA.

STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MAXIMUM WATER LEVELS OF 3 TO 5
FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
INCLUDING THE BIG BEND.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...29.5N 85.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS

TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042009
2100 UTC SUN AUG 16 2009

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER EASTWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 85.6W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 15SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 85.6W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 85.1W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 30.9N 86.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 0SW 15NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 32.7N 87.8W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 34.5N 88.7W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.5N 85.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS

TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042009
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009

EARLIER...THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF CLAUDETTE HAD BECOME EXPOSED TO
THE WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...LIKELY DUE TO SOME UPPER-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
HAS RE-FORMED OVER THE CENTER IN THE LAST HOUR. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE...SUPPORTED BY
OBSERVATIONS FROM STATION SGOF1...TYNDALL AFB TOWER C...LOCATED
ABOUT 25 MILES OFFSHORE. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT CLAUDETTE
COULD STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO LANDFALL IF THE SHEAR
WEAKENS...AS INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 315/12. THE TRACK REASONING
REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS CLAUDETTE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT...TOWARD THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK CLAUDETTE WILL MAKE LANDFALL
TONIGHT IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE WEAKENING
CYCLONE WILL TRACK NORTHWEST PRIOR TO DISSIPATING NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/2100Z 29.5N 85.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 17/0600Z 30.9N 86.6W 40 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 17/1800Z 32.7N 87.8W 30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
36HR VT 18/0600Z 34.5N 88.7W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
48HR VT 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS

[Sean in New Orleans]

Looks like a Mobile Bay system....everybody could use the rain. Hopefully we'll get some squalls in New Orleans. My grass is asking for it!!

[tolakram]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'm not so sure this won't be a hurricane. I am NOT criticizing any forecaster here. We're in a situation where development was unexpected and there isn't a lot of model support. So far this has tracked near to a little left of the NHC track and it appears it will be over water for another few hours at least.

My opinion is basically I'm not sure anyone has any idea what Claudette can do. I'm a bit surprised Hurricane watches haven't been posted yet.

[jinftl]

Still at 50 mph as of 5pm....earlier forecast of 65 mph seems less likely....i would expect this to move onshore in the 50-60 mph range.

From latest Discussion at 5pm edt:

EARLIER...THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF CLAUDETTE HAD BECOME EXPOSED TO
THE WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...LIKELY DUE TO SOME UPPER-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
HAS RE-FORMED OVER THE CENTER IN THE LAST HOUR. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE...SUPPORTED BY
OBSERVATIONS FROM STATION SGOF1...TYNDALL AFB TOWER C...LOCATED
ABOUT 25 MILES OFFSHORE. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT CLAUDETTE
COULD STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO LANDFALL IF THE SHEAR
WEAKENS...AS INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.

[KWT]

Yeah seems like a classic lopsided system, however I've seen systems like that which have made it to hurricane status despite having a pretty poor western quadrants.

[aOl]

Looks like a Mobile Bay system....everybody could use the rain. Hopefully we'll get some squalls in New Orleans. My grass is asking for it!!

I give a 2% chance of this ending up in Mobile Bay.

[PTrackerLA]

Claudette now moving farther offshore with the bend in the coastline, I could see this reaching Mobile Bay as well. These small gulf storms are always fun to watch .

[jinftl]

The NHC seems to have a handle on the situation....they would know if the pressue was dropping, reported wind via aircraft and buoy were increasing, etc. They have a 'real time' handle on it, and if they don't see this becoming a hurricane (for among the cited reasons of the shear that no one on this board picked up on), I trust them. The pressure has held at 1008mb for the last 3 hours....i have never seen a hurricane with a pressure reading over 1000mb..even that is high.

There is a huge risk of putting up unwarranted hurricane watches....the 'boy crying wolf' phenomenon in future real hurricane threats.

Any occassional gust to 60 or 70mph fits under the ts warning. Those conditions will be confined to the immediate coastal locations.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'm not so sure this won't be a hurricane. I am NOT criticizing any forecaster here. We're in a situation where development was unexpected and there isn't a lot of model support. So far this has tracked near to a little left of the NHC track and it appears it will be over water for another few hours at least.

My opinion is basically I'm not sure anyone has any idea what Claudette can do. I'm a bit surprised Hurricane watches haven't been posted yet.

[The Eye Wall]

Small little system. The center is just off of Apalachicola and they have a sustained wind of 24 mph with gusts to 40 mph. I don't see this as a hurricane. I think 50 mph is prudent at this time. I wouldn't expect much of a change at 5pm. I am aware that that's one obs. and winds are higher closer to the center.

Apalachicola is a very sheltered airport. It's a bit inland and surrounded by tall trees on all sides. I'm not surprised if wind obs. there are significantly reduced compared to those facing open water along the actual shore.

I c. Well, the fact remains that this is far from being a hurricane, IMO. Whoever posted radar from Humberto is genius. Claudette looks nothing like Humberto did...at least not at this juncture.

[KWT]

It does seem like its slowed down somewhat recently so going to be interesting to see just what it can do over the next 6hrs or so.

[The Eye Wall]

New convection firing near the center.

[smw1981]

I just hope she doesn't continue to slow down/"drift"..we really could see a little strengthening before she comes ashore. Either way, I would think she will really just be a rainmaker (unless she just bombs out and has way more time over water...doubtful).

Disclaimer - this is just my opinion...

[Nimbus]

The good thing is that Claudette is so close to land that she is pulling dry air down her west side. If she continues to parallel the coast and moves inland near Destin tonight she should not strengthen that much. Systems have been known to stall and stay out over water so I never stop worrying till after landfall.

[fwbbreeze]