ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[weathrlover]

yes....lack of an eye is another aspect.

[WeatherGuesser]

Current Cone of Possible Uncertainties (aka Balloon of Maybes) doesn't go to Major until Tuesday evening.

[weathrlover]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 OCT 2010 Time : 061500 UTC
Lat : 12:30:40 N Lon : 59:02:42 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 998.8mb/ 47.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.3 3.8

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -64.2C Cloud Region Temp : -53.6C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.88 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : ON I get a good laugh at this from time to time.
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... dt21L.html

[weathrlover]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... L-list.txt

[Shuriken]

It just occurred to me that it's possible we'll have a November major hurricane. Those are rare.

November cat-5s are even more rare (has there ever been one?).

[TheDreamTraveler]

It just occurred to me that it's possible we'll have a November major hurricane. Those are rare.

November cat-5s are even more rare (has there ever been one?).

There's actually been only 6 or 7 major hurricanes in November. I can't really find any Cat 5's in November. Not sure if Mitch was still a Cat 5 as it went into November.

[weathrlover]

The location and track of this storm gives it a better shot than something that develops in the Gulf or Western Caribbean. Not saying it's going to happen, just a better environment for a longer time.

[Shuriken]

Judging from the nocturnal maxima, I'd say that the tropopausal cap which has been inhibiting central/east-CAR storms all season is finally, thoroughly, busted -- and that 29.5c water is now open for business.

I wouldn't be surprised to see another low-and-away central Atlantic storm spin up and slide along in behind Tomas on a farther south track (scraping SA).


(BTW, we seem to have an orbiting meso in the center of Tomas now; should clear out an eye noonish, maybe?)

[Wein]

It just occurred to me that it's possible we'll have a November major hurricane. Those are rare.

November cat-5s are even more rare (has there ever been one?).

The latest Atlantic category 5 hurricane is Hurricane Hattie in 1961, which was a Cat 5 between 30 and 31 Oct. Thus, no, there has not been a recorded November Cat 5 in the Atlantic basin.

[bob rulz]

It just occurred to me that it's possible we'll have a November major hurricane. Those are rare.

November cat-5s are even more rare (has there ever been one?).

The only one I can think of is Mitch.

Mitch was a category 5 from October 26 - 28.

If this does reach cat 5 (far too early to speculate) then it will be the latest on record. Lenny came very very close though (155mph) and the Cuba Hurricane of 1932 very likely reached cat 5 intensity before making landfall in Cuba on November 9.

[KWT]

Yeah November Category-5's are pretty much unheard of, and I don't think this one will reach it but I do think a 3/4 is very likely from this possibly reaching that level before we even get to November...but we will see!

[neospaceblue]

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF TOMAS HAS IMPROVED OVERNIGHT. AN
EARLIER GAP IN THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS FILLED IN
...AND THE OUTFLOW REMAINS EXCELLENT. ALSO...IMAGERY FROM THE RADAR
ON MARTINIQUE AND A 0624 UTC TRMM PASS SUGGEST THAT AN EYEWALL
MAY BE FORMING. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
RAISED TO 60 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE TOMAS LATER THIS MORNING TO GET BETTER
INFORMATION ON THE STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE. DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION. IN FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL RAPID INTENSITY INDEX
SHOWS A NEARLY 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 25-KT INCREASE IN 24 HOURS.
BEYOND THAT TIME...THE SHIPS MODEL...BASED ON GFS MODEL FIELDS...
SHOWS AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD SLOW THE
RATE OF INTENSIFICATION SOMEWHAT. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE SHEAR MAY
RELAX AND ALLOW FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS THINKING AND IS ABOVE ALL OF THE RELIABLE
INTENSITY MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

[bob rulz]

Up to 70mph.

EDIT: Ninja'd

[KWT]

I think conditions probably are going to be condusive for a major hurricane, the big fear for me is a recurving major into Haiti, its certainly on the table though I think it'll go a little east of there in the end as it recurves out.

Needs to be watched very closely even though the risk to the US is pretty close to 0...

[crandles]

It just occurred to me that it's possible we'll have a November major hurricane. Those are rare.

November cat-5s are even more rare (has there ever been one?).

What about 2 hurricanes at the same time this late in a season and is this likely to happen?

[weathrlover]

It just occurred to me that it's possible we'll have a November major hurricane. Those are rare.

November cat-5s are even more rare (has there ever been one?).

What about 2 hurricanes at the same time this late in a season and is this likely to happen?

It's a timing thing. The only way it happens IMO, is if they have an intermediate advisory sometime between now and 11am. Shary is forecast to start losing strength from the point on.

[chrisjslucia]

Hello all, it's 6 am here and for the past 30 minutes we've been feeling the winds for the first time, after a night of squalls. In Barbados, they are in the middle of it right now from reports on Stormcarib. Checking on distance i got this info:
Results for St.Lucia (13.75N, 60.95W):
The eye of the storm is about 114 miles (183 km) away. If the system keeps moving at its current speed of 15 mph and directly towards you, it will take around 7.6 hours (Saturday, October 30 at 12:36PM AST) to reach you. You are already experiencing strong winds. Better take cover instead of sitting behind the computer!

We're estimated to be about 25 miles north of centre when it comes, not much comfort with this big a system.

Keep you informed as long as we have power.

Chris

[weathrlover]

Hello all, it's 6 am here and for the past 30 minutes we've been feeling the winds for the first time, after a night of squalls. In Barbados, they are in the middle of it right now from reports on Stormcarib. Checking on distance i got this info:
Results for St.Lucia (13.75N, 60.95W):
The eye of the storm is about 114 miles (183 km) away. If the system keeps moving at its current speed of 15 mph and directly towards you, it will take around 7.6 hours (Saturday, October 30 at 12:36PM AST) to reach you. You are already experiencing strong winds. Better take cover instead of sitting behind the computer!

We're estimated to be about 25 miles north of centre when it comes, not much comfort with this big a system.

Keep you informed as long as we have power.

Chris

Stay safe out there.

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Be safe and dry my friend from the Windwards and Northern Windwards. No more doubts right now... given our Pro Mets of Meteo-France Guadeloupe (from the 6am weather forecast) Tomas is a cat 1 cane who should reach Saint-Vincent near 12 am.